Cotton Balls for No Biz

[brianwspencer]

Any truth to the rumors I've been reading today that Tagg is planning on running Nobiz back in the Excelsior because "everyone knows that a 20 length blowout win does nothing for a horse's foundation?"

[Cajungator26]

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[blackthroatedwind]

I agree with NTamm. Nobiz is a very nice horse, and certainly still on a relatively short list of actual Derby contenders, but so far he has not lived up to the hype, and has yet to run a fast race. How long can we keep blaming his bad habits?

While obviously he can win Saturday, I do not feel he is as good as Any Given Saturday, and I also expect Summer Doldrums to put in a very good effort.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

While obviously he can win Saturday, I do not feel he is as good as Any Given Saturday, and I also expect Summer Doldrums to put in a very good effort.

I think that is your tri right there. Not going to pay much, but I think that is what the tri is going to be.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

I think that is your tri right there. Not going to pay much, but I think that is what the tri is going to be.

Don't forget about Reptilian Smarts.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Don't forget about Reptilian Smarts.

I think a mile and an eigth is too far for him.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree with NTamm. Nobiz is a very nice horse, and certainly still on a relatively short list of actual Derby contenders, but so far he has not lived up to the hype, and has yet to run a fast race. How long can we keep blaming his bad habits?

While obviously he can win Saturday, I do not feel he is as good as Any Given Saturday, and I also expect Summer Doldrums to put in a very good effort.

Obviously we see the main contenders the same way, so what I'm wondering is what you think the blinkers will do to Nobiz as far as the pace. Do you think they focus him so much in the early going that he pulls Cornelio all the way up to the lead. I ask because since AGS spent half the Kentucky Jockey Club pulling Bejarano up to the lead he has rated very nicely in his last two, working out great stalking trips. I'm just wondering if a lot of the knowledgeable people here think the blinkers will relax Nobiz a lot or what.

NT

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Obviously we see the main contenders the same way, so what I'm wondering is what you think the blinkers will do to Nobiz as far as the pace. Do you think they focus him so much in the early going that he pulls Cornelio all the way up to the lead. I ask because since AGS spent half the Kentucky Jockey Club pulling Bejarano up to the lead he has rated very nicely in his last two, working out great stalking trips. I'm just wondering if a lot of the knowledgeable people here think the blinkers will relax Nobiz a lot or what.

NT

Take a look at the Remsen where Nobiz won. He finished along the rail and did not appear to lug in or out or do anything like that. Could the rail be a guide for him? If so maybe he doesnt need the blinkers on the rail.

What is the general feeling about the inside speed? Do jocks want to be able to see where the other front runners are? WOuld it affect NoBiz not being able to see the others?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree with NTamm. Nobiz is a very nice horse, and certainly still on a relatively short list of actual Derby contenders, but so far he has not lived up to the hype, and has yet to run a fast race. How long can we keep blaming his bad habits?

While obviously he can win Saturday, I do not feel he is as good as Any Given Saturday, and I also expect Summer Doldrums to put in a very good effort.

I agree. Thus far Nobiz has been one of those horses that always seems to show just enough to give his supporters something to feel good about (i.e. the way he seemed to re-rally at Scat Daddy after that one passed him in the FOY) but he never actually turns in a huge performance.
He is my pick for this race, but if he had a different trainer I think I would have given up on him awhile ago. He seems talented and I guess I just keep trusting that Tagg will find away to turn that talent into a big race.

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree. Thus far Nobiz has been one of those horses that always seems to show just enough to give his supporters something to feel good about (i.e. the way he seemed to re-rally at Scat Daddy after that one passed him in the FOY) but he never actually turns in a huge performance.
He is my pick for this race, but if he had a different trainer I think I would have given up on him awhile ago. He seems talented and I guess I just keep trusting that Tagg will find away to turn that talent into a big race.

And this is the point. The horse has shown moments of immense talent. You dont give up on a horse like this. The upside is huge. He clearly does not have the racing know how of Street Sense or Great Hunter. I would have to put Scat Daddy in that group also. These horses know what the game is about. If Nobiz learns he will be one to deal with.

[cal828]

Nobiz is a nice horse, but to me it looks like his best races have been at a mile. As others have said, he may well win this thing. He looks like he is training sharply and has had a couple more weeks to recover from his last race than AGS has had. On the other hand, Nobiz and Summer D will likely engage each other for the lead which I think will benefit AGS. I just hope that AGS comes out with enough money to go on to the Derby.