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#1
04-03-2007, 09:44 PM
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I don't see how Pletcher thinks he can win the Derby off an 8 week layoff. It's a real shame because there's a lot to like about CQ from the perspective of the "Derby profile"... distance doesn't appear to be an issue, has good speed figures, proven at 2, proven at 3, good running style, proven at CD... very disappointing. As much as I tried not to like him he has proven to me he should be at or near the top of the 3yo list.
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#2
04-04-2007, 08:48 AM
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#3
04-04-2007, 08:59 AM
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Early April is an odd time to retire a horse that doesn't need to retire, so lets not jump the gun. I am however suspicious when a well organized guy like Tpdd decides to change plans. He just doesn't usually do so.
I was in Saratoga all summer and all I heard from the barn was how CQ was the "golden child" of the crop. Todd just loved him, the staff loved his easy going temperament and because he's a homebred for Tabor and with Todd's connection to sire and dam.... My guess is that though Todd owned a piece of SD, his emotional attachment was to CQ. Remember, he was not so attached to SD as to not sell his interest to Tabor.
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#4
04-04-2007, 09:05 AM
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#5
04-04-2007, 09:20 AM
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http://www.thoroughbrednet.us/discus...topic=9193&hl= Personally I thought his army's chances stacked up as such: CQ AGS SD Cowtown Cat King of the Roxy Sam P
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#6
04-04-2007, 09:24 AM
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NT
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#7
04-04-2007, 09:31 AM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#8
04-04-2007, 09:51 AM
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#9
04-04-2007, 09:51 AM
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#10
04-04-2007, 09:06 AM
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So they are confident that AGS could win the Derby but would rather run him in the Wood instead of the Blue Grass because they aren't confident he's good enough to win that race or place second and get the earnings he'd need to be in the Derby? That sounds very wrong to me. If u don't think he can beat these horses in the Blue Grass, why think u can beat them when they are even tighter and more fit in the Derby?
Maybe it's me, but I think that u make a plan out for your horse based on what's best for him as far as his physical conditioning. If he came out of the TB Derby and u feel that he needs the extra week to the Blue Grass, give it to him. Don't audible now because u took another horse out of a big race and u need a filler. That's not sticking to the plan for the horse. Training and racing one horse because of how another one trains is asking for trouble in my opinion. I would think that u are supposed to handle each horse as an individual. If they are racing AGS here simply to try and have an easier chance to get the earnings and with less regard for what may be physically the best course for him, I think that's sad.
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#11
04-04-2007, 09:11 AM
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Sorry, but I'm slow this morning... just read the title to this thread and got a good chuckle.
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#12
04-04-2007, 09:25 AM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#13
04-04-2007, 09:30 AM
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He doesn't have problems with his shiat... er... Scat! Don't get me started this morning!
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#14
04-04-2007, 09:34 AM
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I am guessing a weird angle on this.
His connections don't want to run him on the Big A track. The main track opens today under rainy conditions. It will then be high temperatures in the 40's the next few days with lows in the 20's. The main track had a ton of problems last fall and I am guessing they are afraid of running him on that track. Wet, freeze, thaw on a track open for three days, that had a big question mark last November. Thus Pletcher is now stuck as it seems he could find a race next week but doesnt want him going to the Derby on 3 weeks rest. Unless the Big A would write an Allowance race to get him a light tune up? Most likely its an injury or sickness that we dont know of yet, but maybe its my angle.
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#15
04-04-2007, 09:36 AM
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#16
04-04-2007, 09:40 AM
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I can't believe Pletcher would jeopardize a relationship with Tabor to help another owner get earnings. Something is amiss.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#17
04-04-2007, 09:48 AM
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#18
04-04-2007, 09:52 AM
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I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.
However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition. On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.
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