Chelokee

1 Street Sense $1,332,000
2 Scat Daddy $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay $1,116,134
4 Great Hunter $730,000
5 Stormello $642,900
6 Birdbirdistheword $637,000
7 Notional $472,000
8 Jack Junior $400,000
9 Hard Spun $360,000
10 Nobiz Like Shobiz $328,500
11 King of the Roxy $280,000
12 Xchanger $202,890
13 Curlin $180,000
14 Officer Rocket $153,260
15 Cobalt Blue $150,000
16 Cowtown Cat $137,253
17 Zanjero $130,000
18 Ketchikan $120,000
19 Sedgefield $120,000
20 Liquidity $116,200
21 Adore the Gold $114,387
22 Bwana Bull $110,000
23 Any Given Saturday $102,969
24 Chelokee $100,000
25 Teuflesberg $85,442
26 Sam P. $56,500
27 Joe Got Even $56,445
28 Air Commander $50,000
29 Storm in May $27,500
30 Summer Doldrums $21,334


So lets see what happens here for Chelokee to get in. Stormello should probably not run. His outspoken owner/trainer has indicated he will not unless the horse shows he wants to. Birdbird should not run. But the Giacomo effect might take place for a hoplessly slow horse. Jack Junior is in other parts and does not appear capable... right? If Nobiz bombs in the Wood and pulls some strange act again with blinkers, he most likely would not go. I think if Curlin or Cobalt Blue bomb, they wont go. If Liquidity shows poorly in Santa Anita, I doubt he would go. The Blue grass is loaded. I would think that if Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, or Great Hunter run a ratty race(no clean excuses), you would get rid of one of these (or on the other hand, horses considered lesser Zanjero, Sedgefield could lose both). So the Blue Grass could possibly be a big eliminator. Ketchikan does poorly in the Arkansas. I dont know if Pletcher sends King of the Roxy at the distance. Cowtown cat... if he blows it, I dont know as Pletcher has a wealth of runners.

But then you have the problem of horses below, like Summer Doldrums, Sam P., etc... doing the opposite and showing they might belong. Looks tough, but not impossible, even with no injuries.

Then again if the poly trackers that lose, they might really look at it as a prep and go anyway. Why did I even type this, its too far out.

[jpops757]

I think the lightly raced Curlin is going to break another tradition and move forward in the Ark or maybe the Ak derby. Instead of not having the foundation to get the derby distance, I think he has more room to improve and he has shown the talent in his two races.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

from thedowneyprofile.com

Jack Junior Less Likely for Derby Now. But the Preakness may be in his sights. Eamonn Connolly, racing manager for owner Roldvale Limited, told British Racing Post that Britain's 2000 Guineas remains a possibility for Jack Junior (Worth Watching), but he is also being considered for the Preakness, the second jewel of America's Triple Crown.

"He's an exciting horse to have. The Guineas may be a bit early for him, and although it is expensive to go there, the Preakness is a bit later and we know he handles the dirt."--Eamonn Connolly

Jack Junior finished second in Saturday's Group 2 UAE Derby in just his third overall start, and his first this year. He earned $400,000 for the effort.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

from thedowneyprofile.com

Jack Junior Less Likely for Derby Now. But the Preakness may be in his sights. Eamonn Connolly, racing manager for owner Roldvale Limited, told British Racing Post that Britain's 2000 Guineas remains a possibility for Jack Junior (Worth Watching), but he is also being considered for the Preakness, the second jewel of America's Triple Crown.

"He's an exciting horse to have. The Guineas may be a bit early for him, and although it is expensive to go there, the Preakness is a bit later and we know he handles the dirt."--Eamonn Connolly

Jack Junior finished second in Saturday's Group 2 UAE Derby in just his third overall start, and his first this year. He earned $400,000 for the effort.

thank you

And now we read about CQ. The bottom of the list looks a little better. Chelokee gets a bit closer.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And now we read about CQ. The bottom of the list looks a little better. Chelokee gets a bit closer.

we dont know for sure yet about CQ and there are more preps to be run, the santa anita derby is very very weak a longshot could win that race and come from out of nowhere and make the starting gate, i think tiago will run huge in the santa anita derby... i guess my point is, i think chelokee is a huge longshot to make the starting gate at this point

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

we dont know for sure yet about CQ and there are more preps to be run, the santa anita derby is very very weak a longshot could win that race and come from out of nowhere and make the starting gate, i think tiago will run huge in the santa anita derby... i guess my point is, i think chelokee is a huge longshot to make the starting gate at this point

I dont know about huge, but longshot yes. Nonetheless I think the CQ news puts him a bit closer. I would agree with the other posters that something is wrong and they are hoping some significant problem gets better. Preps are preparations for the Derby I believe.

[Linny]

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

if king of the roxy wins the santa anita derby or even if he runs a big second i'd be shocked if he dident run in the derby especially with ravel being out for pletcher.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

Sedgefield is probably Millers number two 3yr old. Dominican has only run once this year and won but his BC was ok even if he didnt threaten.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Linny,

Yes.. Jack Junior. Pretty intriguing given trainer Brian Meehan who is as sharp
a conditioner as there is in the world. For that colt to turn in the effort he did off two 7f grass starts in September, is incredible. And the fact that he was ONLY 50-1 in the race gives an indication that Euro punters were hip to the possibility that Jack Junior was ready to run.

[Linny]

Indeed, off the form, that colt should have been 200-1 against Asiatic Boy and Eu Tambem, who all but failed to show up.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Linny,

Yes.. Jack Junior. Pretty intriguing given trainer Brian Meehan who is as sharp
a conditioner as there is in the world. For that colt to turn in the effort he did off two 7f grass starts in September, is incredible. And the fact that he was ONLY 50-1 in the race gives an indication that Euro punters were hip to the possibility that Jack Junior was ready to run.

Of course if would actually win a race.....

[eajinabi]

I do not think Owners/trainers will bypass the derby off of one bad race. If curlin or cobalt blue bomb in thier next prep I really think they will still go for the derby unless these horses were injured. Its the big dance and this is where every owner/trainer is targeting for.

Honestly BIRDBIRD should bypass cause he had 2 bad races. Sam P. will make it on the list after winning this weekends SA DERBY.

[AeWingnut]

I could see someone in Pletcher's situation running a horse just to keep a horse like Chelokee out of the Derby or better yet scratching after the draw.

I like Chelokee.

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me.