Chelokee

[slotdirt]

I don't know how well the Derby is going to set up for closers this year though. Stormello's the obvious pace, but unless he goes all Songandaprayer and runs a 44 and change for the first half, I don't think the pace will compromise the stalkers in the race. My point? I think the race is going to set up better for a Street Sense or a Great Hunter instead of Notional or Circular Quay.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know how well the Derby is going to set up for closers this year though. Stormello's the obvious pace, but unless he goes all Songandaprayer and runs a 44 and change for the first half, I don't think the pace will compromise the stalkers in the race. My point? I think the race is going to set up better for a Street Sense or a Great Hunter instead of Notional or Circular Quay.

i think the race will setup perfectly for nobiz

[slotdirt]

Or Nobiz like Shobiz, yes.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i think the race will setup perfectly for nobiz

The same NObIz that was a mortal lock to win the Fountain of Youth??

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

The same NObIz that was a mortal lock to win the Fountain of Youth??

lol yes that same nobiz im expecting a HUGE PERFORMANCE this saturday!

1 Street Sense $1,332,000
2 Scat Daddy $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay $1,116,134
4 Great Hunter $730,000
5 Stormello $642,900
6 Birdbirdistheword $637,000
7 Notional $472,000
8 Jack Junior $400,000
9 Hard Spun $360,000
10 Nobiz Like Shobiz $328,500
11 King of the Roxy $280,000
12 Xchanger $202,890
13 Curlin $180,000
14 Officer Rocket $153,260
15 Cobalt Blue $150,000
16 Cowtown Cat $137,253
17 Zanjero $130,000
18 Ketchikan $120,000
19 Sedgefield $120,000
20 Liquidity $116,200
21 Adore the Gold $114,387
22 Bwana Bull $110,000
23 Any Given Saturday $102,969
24 Chelokee $100,000
25 Teuflesberg $85,442
26 Sam P. $56,500
27 Joe Got Even $56,445
28 Air Commander $50,000
29 Storm in May $27,500
30 Summer Doldrums $21,334


So lets see what happens here for Chelokee to get in. Stormello should probably not run. His outspoken owner/trainer has indicated he will not unless the horse shows he wants to. Birdbird should not run. But the Giacomo effect might take place for a hoplessly slow horse. Jack Junior is in other parts and does not appear capable... right? If Nobiz bombs in the Wood and pulls some strange act again with blinkers, he most likely would not go. I think if Curlin or Cobalt Blue bomb, they wont go. If Liquidity shows poorly in Santa Anita, I doubt he would go. The Blue grass is loaded. I would think that if Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, or Great Hunter run a ratty race(no clean excuses), you would get rid of one of these (or on the other hand, horses considered lesser Zanjero, Sedgefield could lose both). So the Blue Grass could possibly be a big eliminator. Ketchikan does poorly in the Arkansas. I dont know if Pletcher sends King of the Roxy at the distance. Cowtown cat... if he blows it, I dont know as Pletcher has a wealth of runners.

But then you have the problem of horses below, like Summer Doldrums, Sam P., etc... doing the opposite and showing they might belong. Looks tough, but not impossible, even with no injuries.

Then again if the poly trackers that lose, they might really look at it as a prep and go anyway. Why did I even type this, its too far out.

[jpops757]

I think the lightly raced Curlin is going to break another tradition and move forward in the Ark or maybe the Ak derby. Instead of not having the foundation to get the derby distance, I think he has more room to improve and he has shown the talent in his two races.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

[AeWingnut]

I could see someone in Pletcher's situation running a horse just to keep a horse like Chelokee out of the Derby or better yet scratching after the draw.

I like Chelokee.

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me.