derby odds

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's very likely you will have a 20 horse field...with 7 horses in that field exiting a win in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race.

Besides those 7---you will also have horses like Notional, the loser of the Nobiz/CQ Wood, and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finisher in the Bluegrass whom all figure to get a at least a little bit of wagering support.

That's 12 horses out of 20 whom are likely to get support from the betting public. Of the other 8, you know almost all of them will get a little bit of attention as well. Even a crazy horse like Chelokee, whom will be the only horse in the race that fits the profile that each of the last four Derby winners fit, and is trainer by Matz, will get a little bit of attention.

Barring a few key injuries, the only way I see a runner going off at less than 3/1, would be if Street Sense wins the salty Blue Grass, and no one else looks impressive in the other preps. I don't really see that scenerio happening.

so if street sense wins the bluegrass vs a very very good group you dont see him being 5-2 or 2-1, this is all based on if, but if he wins the bluegrass he will go into the derby 2-2 on the year, he also would have defeated alot of the top contenders, and also already has a huge race over churchill