TG Sheet players...Scat Daddy question

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He didn't get 9F last time?! He lost by ONE LENGTH. . . Plus- go watch the replay head-on and see how many lengths he lost at the break

Since this is a thoro thread.
He ran a 4 last time, so his numbers are going backwards. Add the suicide work and I can't see him winning this. He is the one most likely to X in this race for my money.

[Scav]

Alright I JUST LOST EVERYTHING I ****ED WROTE

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

Alright I JUST LOST EVERYTHING I ****ED WROTE

WTF?

[Rootdog1]

I prefer Adore over Stormello...but maybe even Wildncrazy more then either of them.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

WTF?

I had this whole write up going down and I f'n lost it....no idea how...I just did the condensed version above

[Scav]

Notional - great progression after that monster Debut, closely getting back to that number which makes him a strong Derby candidate

wildcrazyguy - no

Scat Daddy - I agree with Randall, him getting back to that number means he is in great form. he might very well explode in this race, which is fine with me because I am not playing him in the derby

Adore - no

Stormello - another derby prospect. I am praying that he runs about a 2 or a 2.5 in this race so I can just unload on him in the Derby. Derby will be 3rd race off the layoff and I expect a 2nd or 3rd here. Hope he doesn't run his eyeballs out

Cheloadsfiaolee - no, too slow, will get overplayed because of Barbaro angle

Boggs - like the pair up from last, could mean move forward, probably not forward enough

John Star - should have sold when had the chance

Bird - Ran his two year old number off the shelf, which is HUGE. According to Jerry Brown of TG, that race was better then it looked out of him with that '!' notion on his sheet. Beware tomorrow and also depending tomorrows race, beware in the derby

So, all in all, for Tomorrow's race, I like Scat Daddy and Bird to run well. But, thinking ahead to the Derby, I think both Notional and Stormello have favorable sheets and with slight move forwards tomorrow, could be great plays on Derby Day

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Notional - great progression after that monster Debut, closely getting back to that number which makes him a strong Derby candidate

wildcrazyguy - no

Scat Daddy - I agree with Randall, him getting back to that number means he is in great form. he might very well explode in this race, which is fine with me because I am not playing him in the derby

Adore - no

Stormello - another derby prospect. I am praying that he runs about a 2 or a 2.5 in this race so I can just unload on him in the Derby. Derby will be 3rd race off the layoff and I expect a 2nd or 3rd here. Hope he doesn't run his eyeballs out

Cheloadsfiaolee - no, too slow, will get overplayed because of Barbaro angle

Boggs - like the pair up from last, could mean move forward, probably not forward enough

John Star - should have sold when had the chance

Bird - Ran his two year old number off the shelf, which is HUGE. According to Jerry Brown of TG, that race was better then it looked out of him with that '!' notion on his sheet. Beware tomorrow and also depending tomorrows race, beware in the derby

So, all in all, for Tomorrow's race, I like Scat Daddy and Bird to run well. But, thinking ahead to the Derby, I think both Notional and Stormello have favorable sheets and with slight move forwards tomorrow, could be great plays on Derby Day

Quality run-down Scav, I'll just add a few thoughts;
Notional has a very strong pattern, zero first out sprinting, then 2 poly races (7 & 10), comes back at 3 with a 6 and then a 2.75 last at FG, 7 weeks rest. I call this a circle back pattern, sets up well today with the rail.
Scat Daddy, return to top of 1 in last is strong, but the fact that he "bounced" off of his last 1 is cause for concern, although mitigating factor is BC Juvenile, golden rail angle... which makes this a tricky read.. basically as the favorite, play to react, if he were a price, play to pair (that's my general theory on this type of line).
Adore the Gold is also a tough pattern to read, 1-2-4 in last 3 races, certainly not a single in here.
Chelokee is not THAT slow, has a 3 to run back to from last year.
BirdBird has a very healthy pattern, last was buried 3 first off the layoff, has improved or paired every race, need to see how the track is playing to deep closers.

Root, I don't like the pattern on James Wilfred, he has the isolated top of 5, but generally runs 8-9, which is what I would expect today... Green Vegas is FAST, might be the best bet of the day.

[randallscott35]

An absolute slam dunk for the Thoros in this race.

Scat Daddy did in fact match or move forward of his top matching his two year old number. Notional continued his line moving forward, though this number for most likely a touch off the last one..And Adore The Gold X'd like he was supposed to.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by golfer

Quality run-down Scav, I'll just add a few thoughts;
Notional has a very strong pattern, zero first out sprinting, then 2 poly races (7 & 10), comes back at 3 with a 6 and then a 2.75 last at FG, 7 weeks rest. I call this a circle back pattern, sets up well today with the rail.
Scat Daddy, return to top of 1 in last is strong, but the fact that he "bounced" off of his last 1 is cause for concern, although mitigating factor is BC Juvenile, golden rail angle... which makes this a tricky read.. basically as the favorite, play to react, if he were a price, play to pair (that's my general theory on this type of line).
Adore the Gold is also a tough pattern to read, 1-2-4 in last 3 races, certainly not a single in here.
Chelokee is not THAT slow, has a 3 to run back to from last year.
BirdBird has a very healthy pattern, last was buried 3 first off the layoff, has improved or paired every race, need to see how the track is playing to deep closers.

Root, I don't like the pattern on James Wilfred, he has the isolated top of 5, but generally runs 8-9, which is what I would expect today... Green Vegas is FAST, might be the best bet of the day.

One thing I forgot to mention: thorograph pattern reads DO NOT APPLY to Todd Pletcher! This is not sour grapes, it's simply the TRUTH!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

A hot Prado (versus a crappy Albarado) is worth 2 lengths (minimum.) Exchange jocks,and you'd get the exacta reversed.There are a lot of top rate jocks,but that is strictly a "B" level jock.

I just read this whole thing and its pretty clear Randall popped this one.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Since this is a thoro thread.
He ran a 4 last time, so his numbers are going backwards. Add the suicide work and I can't see him winning this. He is the one most likely to X in this race for my money.

A few more things about ATG and then I'm done. . .

It seems to me that ATG is just a very fast-working horse-
He ran a :58 5F and :59 5F before the Swale and then ran a 102 Beyer

I know Andy, etc. . . consider "trainerspeak" worthless, but the fact that Gorham said that the work was a function of track speed makes a lot of sense. . .

I'm not a big Tgraph follower but based on the Beyers it looks like he should run close to a career best here. . . he ran a top off the lay-off, then regressed a little bit and will now be 3rd off the lay-off in this race. . .

[Scav]

I might be rethinking Scat in this race. That last was really huge, I am on Bird now

My hope is that Stormello and Notional run good races and good numbers so I have reasons to get nuts on the Derby

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might be rethinking Scat in this race. That last was really huge, I am on Bird now

My hope is that Stormello and Notional run good races and good numbers so I have reasons to get nuts on the Derby

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

[Rootdog1]

never liked bird, but figs say he is a contender....he wont get my $.

Since this is a TG thread......any chance James Wilfred hits the board at 20-1 in the Aventura......questions abound with the field, and I see speed and fade for many in here. No way he wins, but exotic filler maybe?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

I agree about Bird might not being that talented, but numbers don't lie, but they do hide some things sometimes. If you don't believe Birds number, then you won't believe Circular's or whoever else ran in that races' number

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

If McPeek was trying to squeeze a few big races out of him, why would he take the wraps off for the La. Derby?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Randall I see you are very anti wraps. Why? Some trainers always use them no matter what, just a matter of preference.

B/c I gamble all the time and history tells me all I need to know of young horses and wraps. See above post from the blog.