Will we ever see another Triple Crown Winner?

[todko]

Some of that difference may be due to the Triple Crown winners scaring off horses in the later legs. The Derby also -- who knows how many trainers kept their horse home instead of running against Slew in the 1977 Derby? Trainers probably weren't exactly looking forward to running against Secretariat at Pimlico or Belmont after he demolished the Derby field in record time.

Plus, trainers of today may be more willing to run horses in races where they don't have a chance anyway. Look at some of DWL's Derby entrants over the last couple of years. All the major trainers lately have slung some real bombs at the Derby.

In terms of since 1981, you left out Tabasco Cat who won the second and third legs in 1994. I think that's right, lots of people forget him. I know I had to look this up at least once...

Also left off Hansel, 1991.

Originally Posted by Cardus

Lukas aside, the increased number of poorly placed horses in Triple Crown events is more attributable to the increased say owners have in determining their horses' races. Old-time trainers -- like Nerud, who told his owners that if they wanted to stable with him, it was his way or no way -- wouldn't indulge owners who merely want to have a box on a big day.

I dont know if this is as certain as you are making it to be.


For instance if Nerud was having this discussion in the first place, doesnt it mean that some owners at least thought they had enuf pull to insist on it? IF it was such a foregone conclusion then why would Nerud have to tell this to his owner?


Or take the case of Majestic Prince in the Belmont that was pure owner driven. That was 1969 probably the same approx. time as they Nerud story. Need to do some more research on this before it looks like a viable theory.

[miraja2]

The bottom line is that 10 out of the last 13 years a horse has won two out of three. One of these years - either because of a particularly talented colt, or a good colt in a particularly weak crop - it will happen.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by miraja2

The bottom line is that 10 out of the last 13 years a horse has won two out of three. One of these years - either because of a particularly talented colt, or a good colt in a particularly weak crop - it will happen.

You would think... yet this exact situation applied in '04 and '05 and (unfortunately) circumstance prevented either of occurring. SJ and AA were so much better than any of their generation yet they missed by a combined 2 lengths.

In '97, the opportunity was there with an outstanding colt but there were several others nearly equally talented; in '98, same deal.

It'll happen within the next 10 years... but it will require quite a bit of luck as well as talent.