my derby top 10..

POINTGIVEN1985 · #1 03-23-2007, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Couple of points from reading this thread. First, I agree with Chuck about Great Hunter. I'm not that interested in anyone else at this point....Also agree with Andy about Scat Daddy although I said that about everyone from the FOY. They are all slowish. And Scat Daddy needs to be ridden b/c he's a grinder and he isn't even a fast grinder at that. He is a poor man's Limehouse who was able to finish 4th in a bad crop. This one couldn't manage that.

As for the 5000-1 comment, I'm sure Pointgiven didn't realize what he was saying so I'm not going to pile on.

i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby

randallscott35 · #2 03-23-2007, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby

But PG (what is your actual first name so its easier to respond if you don't mind) 5000-1 is not necessary to get action. As others said you could get the same action for 250-1. I know you aren't serious to taking bets b/c no one here thinks you have the bank for it. But I don't like the horses chances but I'd be inclined to bet at those odds because they aren't realistic.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #3 03-23-2007, 08:07 PM

my name is dominick, and i never said i had that kind of bankroll to take 5000-1 on something, i doubt anyone on here does

blackthroatedwind · #4 03-23-2007, 08:24 PM

The bottom line is you said you wouldn't bet the horse at 5000-1, which is exceedingly foolish, as anytime you can take even five times the actual chances of any horse winning it is worth it to take the bet. If nothing else you can find a way to arbitrage the bet to make money. Instead of arguing with everyone that disagrees with you, like refusing to listen to the very sound logic that tried to lead you away from the worst sucker bet of 2007 ( Marina Market ), maybe you should at least occasionally think about what the other person is saying. Hell, even I do that on occasion.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #5 03-23-2007, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line is you said you wouldn't bet the horse at 5000-1, which is exceedingly foolish, as anytime you can take even five times the actual chances of any horse winning it is worth it to take the bet. If nothing else you can find a way to arbitrage the bet to make money. Instead of arguing with everyone that disagrees with you, like refusing to listen to the very sound logic that tried to lead you away from the worst sucker bet of 2007 ( Marina Market ), maybe you should at least occasionally think about what the other person is saying. Hell, even I do that on occasion.

well i definitly see what your saying on that 1, im getting crushed " betting" the last 2 days

outofthebox · #6 03-23-2007, 08:13 PM

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #7 03-23-2007, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

ArlJim78 · #8 03-23-2007, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

Don't forget to call in tomorrow morning on DerbyTrail Live.

You should be able to come up with a few questions for the guests.

Cajungator26 · #9 03-23-2007, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Don't forget to call in tomorrow morning on DerbyTrail Live.

You should be able to come up with a few questions for the guests.

Yeah, I'd love to hear him tomorrow.

Call in, Dominick.

outofthebox · #10 03-23-2007, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

Monarchos had only won an nw1 at GP. He ran in his first stake in the Fla Derby...I know this because i ran 2nd to him with Outofthebox...

blackthroatedwind · #11 03-23-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Monarchos had only won an nw1 at GP. He ran in his first stake in the Fla Derby...I know this because i ran 2nd to him with Outofthebox...

That Florida Derby had already been run by now.

outofthebox · #12 03-23-2007, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That Florida Derby had already been run by now.

come to think of it your right. Hialeah was hosting the Flamingo on April 7tj. Could that have been the last meeting Hialeah ran. 2001

blackthroatedwind · #13 03-23-2007, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

You guys are really emptying the barn at Turfway tomorrow.

outofthebox · #14 03-23-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You guys are really emptying the barn at Turfway tomorrow.

Yea, a little ambitious. I will be at the big A with Golden Dreamer..

blackthroatedwind · #15 03-23-2007, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Yea, a little ambitious. I will be at the big A with Golden Dreamer..

I would rather be in NY as well.

Ambitious for sure but I guess people would have said the same thing about NY Hero four years ago. With all the people ducking races these days, whether you like Ernie or not, at least he shows up. It's certainly worked for the Chief over the years.

horseofcourse · #16 03-23-2007, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

I would put Funny Cide on that list with the 3 you mentioned as well, as the Wood hadn't been run yet and he had finished 5th in the Holy Bull and 3rd in the La Derby. People weren't jumping on this horse either in late March 2003.

blackthroatedwind · #17 03-23-2007, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I would put Funny Cide on that list with the 3 you mentioned as well, as the Wood hadn't been run yet and he had finished 5th in the Holy Bull and 3rd in the La Derby. People weren't jumping on this horse either in late March 2003.

Good point. He was around 90-1 in the first Derby futures pool.

randallscott35 · #18 03-23-2007, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Good point. He was around 90-1 in the first Derby futures pool.

Paid 188.00 for pool 1.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #19 03-26-2007, 07:54 AM

As of 3/26...
1) GREAT HUNTER
2) SCAT DADDY
3) STREET SENSE
4) CIRCULAR QUAY
5) HARD SPUN
6) NOTIONAL
7) NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
8) ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
9) STORMELLO
10) COWTOWN CAT

#20 03-26-2007, 11:13 AM

Yeah Giacomo was 26-1 in the first pool, I believe. ANd 50-1 or so on derby day. Just really makes you wonder why play a future pool. Although if you had Funny Cide at 90-1 by all means...