Lanes End...

blackthroatedwind · #1 03-23-2007, 12:21 PM

I don't get Twilight Meteor at all ( and Bullara is comically bad ). Did anyone take a good look at the field Twilight Meteor beat at Keeneland on Polytrack?

Suffice to say it was more than a little weaker than this field. He will be probably less than a third the price of his actual chances of winning and likely even more.

paisjpq · #2 03-23-2007, 12:24 PM

for those people who follow turfway (because I do not) is there a large disadvantage for those on the outside in a route...I can't remember how big the track is and I don't feel like looking it up. thanks.
are there even any other races at turfway that are run at 1 1/8?

miraja2 · #3 03-23-2007, 12:37 PM

I think this is a really good race in terms of betting, but not in the quality of the field. My top pick here is Joe Got Even.
He is no superstar, but he is a solid and consistent stakes horse on the poly.
Sims and Mena are both tough @TP, and I think the race will set up nicely for this horse's stalker-style.
Unlike some of the horse's in here that have posted flashy numbers while loose on the lead in races with short fields (Hard Spun and Bullara) JGE has been competing against full fields - 11 starters in each of his last two races - and posting figures that are both legitimate and consistent.
I have no idea what his post-time odds will be, but I think he will be a nice price.

philcski · #4 03-23-2007, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

for those people who follow turfway (because I do not) is there a large disadvantage for those on the outside in a route...I can't remember how big the track is and I don't feel like looking it up. thanks.
are there even any other races at turfway that are run at 1 1/8?

Mile circumference, outside posts are fine at a mile and a 1/16 and longer. Even in a bulky field the 10-12 holes are fine.

SniperSB23 · #5 03-23-2007, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get Twilight Meteor at all ( and Bullara is comically bad ). Did anyone take a good look at the field Twilight Meteor beat at Keeneland on Polytrack?

Suffice to say it was more than a little weaker than this field. He will be probably less than a third the price of his actual chances of winning and likely even more.

It was an off the turfer so it isn't surprising that it was a terrible field. I hope no one is betting him on the basis of that race. If he gets bet it should be because someone considers the Hallandale Beach a strong race which I am currently on the fence about. And of course because his trainer is winning everything in sight.

blackthroatedwind · #6 03-23-2007, 12:32 PM

I certainly hope the public falls all over Twilight Meteor based on his perfect trip turf win. I think he has very little chance to win this race.

Grits · #7 03-23-2007, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I certainly hope the public falls all over Twilight Meteor based on his perfect trip turf win. I think he has very little chance to win this race.

And will you not elaborate further, as to who you do like, or think possible?

I mean, I don't have a check that I can hand you just this minute, but . . . your thoughts are always welcome. And you know that, I'm sure.

SniperSB23 · #8 03-23-2007, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I certainly hope the public falls all over Twilight Meteor based on his perfect trip turf win. I think he has very little chance to win this race.

I think he has as good a chance as anybody. This is a race that may be virtually impossible to bet. If you don't back him or Hard Spun (both of whom will be overbet) then who the heck do you go with? Forefathers? Sedgefield? I have a tough time seeing anyone else win the race.

Grits · #9 03-23-2007, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think he has as good a chance as anybody. This is a race that may be virtually impossible to bet. If you don't back him or Hard Spun (both of whom will be overbet) then who the heck do you go with? Forefathers? Sedgefield? I have a tough time seeing anyone else win the race.

Sniper, maybe we're both on the same wave length.

blackthroatedwind · #10 03-23-2007, 12:43 PM

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.

Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

jman5581 · #11 03-23-2007, 12:45 PM

he's not in Arkansas anymore...and he didn't exactly please the masses last out. Perhaps a better price is in order.

Grits · #12 03-23-2007, 12:48 PM

And I thank you BTW, I'll watch some replays early tomorrow morning, or later when I download the Turfway card.

JJP · #13 03-23-2007, 02:11 PM

I think Sedgefield is the horse to beat. He probably was the best in his last; just expended a bit too much energy early. And we know he handles the Poly.

Based on recent runnings, the race doesn't even deserve Grade 3 status. Last year's running was sub-horrible.

byalip · #14 03-24-2007, 09:45 AM

Sports Town at 15-1 M/L He's shown he can sit just off the pace and if
Bridge keeps him calmed down he's got a shot against all the early speed.

For You Reppo is another strong longshot who has good late pace figures. He's already gone the distance three times, won once and got a second. He gets the 11 post but has shown he can handle the wide breek at Gulfstream.

Twilight Meteor looks awfully tough to beat switching from turf to Polytrack but everyoone will be all over him and Hard Spun, who will be really tested today. I'm not using either

SniperSB23 · #15 03-23-2007, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.

Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

I'll have to check that out, that figure was enough to scare me off.

zippyneedsawin · #16 03-23-2007, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.
Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

I thought Kent D. made a premature move on the backstretch to put 'Reppo up with the leaders in his last race...(into a pace that went :46+ for the first half mile) the horse looked like he had to maintain a sustained drive for the last 5 furlongs or so. The bad news is, Kent D. is back aboard for this race too!

blackthroatedwind · #17 03-23-2007, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I thought Kent D. made a premature move on the backstretch to put 'Reppo up with the leaders in his last race...(into a pace that went :46+ for the first half mile) the horse looked like he had to maintain a sustained drive for the last 5 furlongs or so. The bad news is, Kent D. is back aboard for this race too!

I saw the race the same way.

SniperSB23 · #18 03-23-2007, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It was an off the turfer so it isn't surprising that it was a terrible field. I hope no one is betting him on the basis of that race. If he gets bet it should be because someone considers the Hallandale Beach a strong race which I am currently on the fence about. And of course because his trainer is winning everything in sight.

I just saw the Beyers and see that he got a mindboggling 97 for the race on the poly. Don't know how they came up with that especially since poly figures seem to come up consistently low. I don't imagine any other figures support that 97.

blackthroatedwind · #19 03-23-2007, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I just saw the Beyers and see that he got a mindboggling 97 for the race on the poly. Don't know how they came up with that especially since poly figures seem to come up consistently low. I don't imagine any other figures support that 97.

I assume they made the fig the way they make all of them but it also didn't seem indicative of the horse's in the field's abilities.