blind betting.....

ND man.

I think the following would be interesting if you had the time and the means:

Lets say you look only for maiden two year old races with 9 or so runners. Your next criteria(um) might be two of the nine or more runners are clear favorites. Lets say even money and 3:2. This basically means that the public has put a 90% probability that 2 out of 9 or more runners will win. That means that the other 7 runners (in a nine horse field would) would have been given a 10% probability of winning. If we split that 10% probability up evenly between those seven horses that means they all go of at 69-1 (this is calculated without track out take). Now of course this will not happen so we make sure that the 3rd betting favorite has to be at odds of 10-1 or more.

So the criteria:
1. 2yo maidens, 9 or more runners
2. Two favorites in which the public deems worth a 90% probability of winning
(one even money, one at 3:2 would give you this... could be a number of other combinations of two horses though)
3. The 3rd betting favorite is at 10-1 or better.

Now I think this could be very interesting. But difficult to actually carry out.

Oh yes. You bet the 7 "slugs".