BSF 'Doldrums': Figure Dives

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Also it is not a great trend when trainers/owners are so insistent that a non-winning race in a derby prep is "exactly what we were looking for".

I never understood why they think that, you would
think you would want to win every Derby prep you
enter in. In this sport isn't the idea is that you want
to be the first past finish line.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by saucon17

I never understood why they think that, you would
think you would want to win every Derby prep you
enter in. In this sport isn't the idea is that you want
to be the first past finish line.

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

Originally Posted by Linny

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

People that wage on these races take note.

[Linny]

Determining "trainer intent" is one of the things we do as we handicap. When a top router returns off a layoff at 6f in good company, he might win but to me it looks like the trainer might be blowing the last of the cobwebs out with a race.
Somewhere on the Derby Trail each year, trainers ask speedy 3yo's to rate off the pace. It's a test. Usually they don't announce it up front, but sometimes you can read between the lines of comments or notice that the works lately are longer and slower etc. In many racing countries trainer must declare intent to change running style.

I do not mean to imply that trainers are sending horses out to lose races. No one wants to lose a race, especially with a top colt. The smart handicapper has to assume that all these races are preps for something bigger.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

The problem with the plan is that only one guy is going to win and most of the rest of the horses are going to turn out to be finished by the first Sunday in May. If they worried more about winning the races at hand instead of worrying about "peaking" on Derby day, they would be much better off. It is impossible to keep a horse from peaking unless you undertrain them, which leads to injuries which is why the attrition rate is so high among three year olds after the Derby. The trend toward fewer preps is a bad one.