BSF 'Doldrums': Figure Dives

[MisterB]

And you wonder why some people like me toss that Beyer crap in the circular files. They mean nothing at all.

[Kasept]

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's an inexact science.

This is close as I tend to agree, but I don't think science plays any part in future results.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

Steve dont get caught up in justifing both of them. ATF is one thing but why wait untill the next race? RV might be a great horseman but he sure said something dumb. Both sure lost some creditability. The more they try to explain it the dumber they look.

[cmorioles]

Now I am sorry I brought this back up. Where did that guy come from?

He's a funny little troll. How many handles does this guy use?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Now I am sorry I brought this back up. Where did that guy come from?

He came back from the dead.

[ArlJim78]

The thing is, he is not even a good troll, his technique is horrible.
He starts out by giving away his identity.
I think he flunked out of troll school.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The thing is, he is not even a good troll, his technique is horrible.
He starts out by giving away his identity.
I think he flunked out of troll school.

I've always been fond of the multiple handle trolls. This guy is failing at it miserably, and that is hilarious to me.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Now I am sorry I brought this back up. Where did that guy come from?

Family Fued #1 Answer - From under a bridge

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

I agree with you Steve. Speed figures are opinions that are based upon facts. The numbers that they assign are not exact and adjusting them is a good thing in the long run. I do find it a little troublesome when trainers are using speed figures to explain weak performances BEFORE the race actually occurs. Also it is not a great trend when trainers/owners are so insistent that a non-winning race in a derby prep is "exactly what we were looking for".

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Also it is not a great trend when trainers/owners are so insistent that a non-winning race in a derby prep is "exactly what we were looking for".

I never understood why they think that, you would
think you would want to win every Derby prep you
enter in. In this sport isn't the idea is that you want
to be the first past finish line.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by saucon17

I never understood why they think that, you would
think you would want to win every Derby prep you
enter in. In this sport isn't the idea is that you want
to be the first past finish line.

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

Originally Posted by Linny

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

People that wage on these races take note.

[Linny]

Determining "trainer intent" is one of the things we do as we handicap. When a top router returns off a layoff at 6f in good company, he might win but to me it looks like the trainer might be blowing the last of the cobwebs out with a race.
Somewhere on the Derby Trail each year, trainers ask speedy 3yo's to rate off the pace. It's a test. Usually they don't announce it up front, but sometimes you can read between the lines of comments or notice that the works lately are longer and slower etc. In many racing countries trainer must declare intent to change running style.

I do not mean to imply that trainers are sending horses out to lose races. No one wants to lose a race, especially with a top colt. The smart handicapper has to assume that all these races are preps for something bigger.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Obviously people in racing want to win each time they "send them over" but in terms of bringing along a horse for a big race, in many cases winning isn't everything. If the goal for the spring is the Derby, it's silly to say you don't care if you win the preps yet it's the DERBY that you want. You may need to put some education into a horse, teaching him to rate, or run inside rivals. The preps are just that, preparation. It's when trainers are tweaking equipment, finding the right rider, learning the horse's fine points.
To bring this back around to the "figs" end of the discussion, ask Ragozin or Jerry Brown or any of Beyer's guys who will win the Derby. They will all say "A colt ready to step up to the best race of his life." The plan in the preps is to have a horse ready to improve one more time to win the big dance.

The problem with the plan is that only one guy is going to win and most of the rest of the horses are going to turn out to be finished by the first Sunday in May. If they worried more about winning the races at hand instead of worrying about "peaking" on Derby day, they would be much better off. It is impossible to keep a horse from peaking unless you undertrain them, which leads to injuries which is why the attrition rate is so high among three year olds after the Derby. The trend toward fewer preps is a bad one.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

This is what I wanted to say, but of course you said it better. I agree they must make the corrections. It helps people to understand those particular performances better and it also helps people to understand how the figures are arrived at and therefore should improve their use of the figures.

I think the ammendments/corrections should be prominently published when they occur. No sense trying to sweep this under the carpet.

[Thunder Gulch]

This is another reason why I like Bris figures. People pan on them because they are computer generated based on actual times and variants (projection method), but the positive thing is it allows an observant handicapper to make his own subjective adjustments off a figure that you can understand. If I see trouble, weight adjustments, or wide trips, I can quantify it as I choose. With Sheets, and more and more with Beyer, you don't know how or why they are adjusting a figure and you have to just go blind with the figure maker.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.

One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.

As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.

On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.

More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.

This was WAY too long to wait to revisit a BSF. And, if it was truly based on Summer Doldrum's subsequent race in the Gotham, then the revision is completely indefensible. If Beyer is going to rely on future races to adjust his earlier figs, then the whole process becomes circular and meaningless. (If Summer Doldrums wins by open lengths against CQ, Ravel or some other major contender next time out, will Beyer be revising his figs up again?!)

Human error occurs, no doubt about it. I'm not demanding perfection. But future performance should not be an excuse to revisit earlier speed figs.

I don't understand why Beyer Assoc feels the need to get the figs out so quickly after a race. It's not like those horses are going to come back on 2 days rest. It would be better to take a little more time with it in the first place and cut down on the error rate.

--Dunbar