300 dollar horse at GP3

randallscott35 · #1 03-12-2007, 02:48 PM

90 dollars to place. When it rains it pours Grits.

Antitrust32 · #2 03-12-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

90 dollars to place. When it rains it pours Grits.

but you are realizing that over the long run grits will be right (may not be in the 250 sample... but the grits has the goods with her logic)

Grits · #3 03-12-2007, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

but you are realizing that over the long run grits will be right (may not be in the 250 sample... but the grits has the goods with her logic)

Don't I know you'd chime in. LOLOL

Grits · #4 03-12-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

but you are realizing that over the long run grits will be right (may not be in the 250 sample... but the grits has the goods with her logic)

That's my girl, that's smart thinking! What's 250 samples over years and years of play? Zip.

randallscott35 · #5 03-12-2007, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

but you are realizing that over the long run grits will be right (may not be in the 250 sample... but the grits has the goods with her logic)

Huh, should we go to a 1000 races? I mean 250 instances(not races) is plenty....And yes, it will end up closer.

Grits · #6 03-12-2007, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Huh, should we go to a 1000 races? I mean 250 instances(not races) is plenty....And yes, it will end up closer.

That's another arguement with the way this thing is set up. People play races everyday, honey. PEOPLE DON'T PLAY INSTANCES

I can hear it now, "c'mon buddy, let's go to the track; man, they got a full 10 race card today of INSTANCES!!!!!!

I'll learn you something sooner or later.

Cajungator26 · #7 03-12-2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

That's another arguement with the way this thing is set up. People play races everyday, honey. PEOPLE DON'T PLAY INSTANCES

I can hear it now, "c'mon buddy, let's go to the track; man, they got a full 10 race card today of INSTANCES!!!!!!

I'll learn you something sooner or later.

Spoken like a true southerner.

randallscott35 · #8 03-12-2007, 03:12 PM

Grits, you'll learn me some blue label Jack.

Antitrust32 · #9 03-12-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Huh, should we go to a 1000 races? I mean 250 instances(not races) is plenty....And yes, it will end up closer.

no that sample will be fine.. i do find it amazing how fast these races are adding up.

i dont know, when grits posted those notes her mentor gave her. it was just really logical and smart and along with discussing this situation with some pro handicappers, they all have sided with the exacta. just kinda makes sense for the long run ROI you know?

you have the advantage with the 250 sample size because as you know, there is only one favorite per race (sometimes not a clear favorite) and there are more than 1 10-1 shot in each race. so you have to figure, is the one longshot that gets the place really the one you would have played? do you take into consideration all those $2WP bets you lost cause the majority of the 10-1 shots ran third or off the board?

on the other hand. I bet WP because I dont know enough about handicapping to play for a living and I'm just there for the instant excitement.

randallscott35 · #10 03-12-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

no that sample will be fine.. i do find it amazing how fast these races are adding up.

i dont know, when grits posted those notes her mentor gave her. it was just really logical and smart and along with discussing this situation with some pro handicappers, they all have sided with the exacta. just kinda makes sense for the long run ROI you know?

you have the advantage with the 250 sample size because as you know, there is only one favorite per race (sometimes not a clear favorite) and there are more than 1 10-1 shot in each race. so you have to figure, is the one longshot that gets the place really the one you would have played? do you take into consideration all those $2WP bets you lost cause the majority of the 10-1 shots ran third or off the board?

on the other hand. I bet WP because I dont know enough about handicapping to play for a living and I'm just there for the instant excitement.

See I lose even if I win....What do you want the sample to be....I'll go 1000 if you want...Think about it, the fave wins 30% of the time---they are going to win 30% of the time at a 1000 races also--or around that....Grits made up a 100 bucks in one day. She isn't done by any means....But if I thought in the last 10 years that her way made sense, I would've been doing that....Quite happy cashing a place ticket.

hockey2315 · #11 03-12-2007, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

you have the advantage with the 250 sample size because as you know, there is only one favorite per race (sometimes not a clear favorite) and there are more than 1 10-1 shot in each race. so you have to figure, is the one longshot that gets the place really the one you would have played? do you take into consideration all those $2WP bets you lost cause the majority of the 10-1 shots ran third or off the board?

i think there are two things wrong with this logic-

sample size doesn't give anyone a distinct advantage- the more races you include, the more accurate the results will be- but the sample size doesn't favor one side or the other. there will still only be one favorite in the other 750 races if you do a thousand and still be more than one 10-1 shot. . .

also, neither side has the advantage because there is more than one 10-1 shot in each race and only one favorite. . . both sides get all the long shots and the fave is the most likely winner. . .

not sure if that makes total sense but it does to me

Antitrust32 · #12 03-12-2007, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

i think there are two things wrong with this logic-

sample size doesn't give anyone a distinct advantage- the more races you include, the more accurate the results will be- but the sample size doesn't favor one side or the other. there will still only be one favorite in the other 750 races if you do a thousand and still be more than one 10-1 shot. . .

also, neither side has the advantage because there is more than one 10-1 shot in each race and only one favorite. . . both sides get all the long shots and the fave is the most likely winner. . .

not sure if that makes total sense but it does to me

ya that makes sense. but do you still get what i was trying to say with the other 10 paragraphs in this thread?

also regarding sample size, these 250 examples may be up in a few days of racing ya know? i think i would be more accurate using one month's worth or at least 3 weeks. but, the size is fine that was the original "bet" - (maybe something grits should have thought about before the rules were set

)

hockey2315 · #13 03-12-2007, 04:17 PM

I agree that the sample size may not yield completely accurate results. . but it doesn't favor one side or the other is all I'm saying. . .

Personally I don't think either strategy is totally correct. . . I'll explain mine later if I feel like it. . .

Payson Dave · #14 03-12-2007, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

but you are realizing that over the long run grits will be right (may not be in the 250 sample... but the grits has the goods with her logic)

You know what they say about opinions....

I am not sure who is right...how can you be sure...

MisterB · #15 03-12-2007, 02:59 PM

The 7th Sunday
Place horse paid $14 for place, $24 for show

It's all on the TOTE board to see

Antitrust32 · #16 03-12-2007, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I initially thought so too, but I am thinking with the way it was set up Randall might be right. I think just a blind bet using the favorite over a horse you like is a lot different than betting your horse to win and then hedging by using your horse in exactas.

i believe, originally, grits said she does bet the longshot to win, and then hedges the longshot underneath the favorite for the exacta.

still hit the win bet if the longshot wins, but over time the ROI will be greater if you have the exacta than just the place price if your longshot finishes 2nd.

unless of course, the horse goes off at 150-1 and the place pays $90

Cajungator26 · #17 03-12-2007, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

i believe, originally, grits said she does bet the longshot to win, and then hedges the longshot underneath the favorite for the exacta.

still hit the win bet if the longshot wins, but over time the ROI will be greater if you have the exacta than just the place price if your longshot finishes 2nd.
unless of course, the horse goes off at 150-1 and the place pays $90

Stop using logic, Lori!