Circular Quay: Just a Deep Closer or More?

tycharles01 · #1 03-12-2007, 11:25 AM

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

Sightseek · #2 03-12-2007, 11:27 AM

He got a 102 for his efforts the other day. Ketchikan a 99.

Cajungator26 · #3 03-12-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He got a 102 for his efforts the other day. Ketchikan a 99.

Thanks for posting this...

Ketchikan is a hell of a nice colt... if they can get him to calm down a bit, he's definitely one to watch.

Thunder Gulch · #4 03-12-2007, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

The class of the 3yo crop may not be the need to lead types, but you can bet that there will be a couple of early speed types that pull wirejobs in the G3 preps that make for a hot pace in the Derby. If that happens, CQ is a player.

horseofcourse · #5 03-12-2007, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

In all honesty I don't get the title of this thread. Of course he's a closer. He's always back in the pack. He's been 1st or 2nd every time he's stepped on the track other than when he got stopped cold in the Risen Star and I am quite certain he finishes 1st or 2nd there as well if ont for that incident. He is a very good 3 yr old closer...end of story. How good is the only debate and is he good enough to win the Derby. Of course he benefits from a fast pace as all closers do. HE always gives a good effort...even in the Risen Star it was a top notch deed gathering himself fro stopping and finishing 5th.

randallscott35 · #6 03-12-2007, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

And, CQ is not a plodder. He has the turn of foot that is necessary to win the Derby, too.

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

miraja2 · #7 03-12-2007, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

randallscott35 · #8 03-12-2007, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

miraja2 · #9 03-12-2007, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

I don't follow.

randallscott35 · #10 03-12-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't follow.

Nothing...Its just a basic overrated thing. I mean Somer has him in his top 50 of all time I believe....Nothing to do with the distance question Mira.

#11 03-12-2007, 02:00 PM

He's just another Pletcher horse. I don't see how anyone can root for this guy. It's like rooting for Wal-Mart and/or Halliburton.

#12 03-15-2007, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

....Looking at the last 25 years, closers are just as likely to win the Derby as are stalkers.

I'm not defending CQ as much as I am illustrating that deep closers can win the Derby.

I"d like to see your count, because the last time we did this on another forum we got about twice the number of closers as stalkers counting from 1980 to 2005. I think we got 20 closers/10 stalkers/6 front runners.

I dont know where we stuck pressers perhaps in w/ front runners, dont recall.

SINce then Ive tried to count from 1960-present and the ratio does not quite hold up, but it's still somethign like: 50%-30%-20% (closer/stalker/frontrunner).

So I love it when people say these closers will not get through the traffic. But they do, more than half the time, one of them comes in first...

Would be interested if you have made a similar count.

#13 03-15-2007, 12:40 PM

OH Cardus...Sorry I did not see you had made your count earlier in the thread. I just posted a little too quickly.

Anyhow, from the last discussion we had on another forum (could be PaceAdvantage, or maybe one of the long dead ones..) we had a few more to add to your list.

Going back to 1980, add the following:

Charismatic; Thunder Gulch; ALysheba and Pleasant Colony.

I recall Charismatic and I have TG and Aly. on tape but if this is not right let me know. I"m always interested in historical comparisons and what not so I'd like to hear what you think.

Charismatic I think was a closer, I recall seeing him on the backstretch of some race the derby I guess just picking off horses, from that race I recall he made his move before the turn, which sort of complicates the analysis. At the BEL he was chasing the speedy Vision and Verse, was it???

Pleasant Colony is mentioned by one poster as being a deep closer so..

Anyhow, let me know what you think, this is always an interesting topic.

Oh btw: we did not figure out what Swale was but I will go look that up now...

#14 03-15-2007, 01:25 PM

OKay, looks like Thunder Gulch is a presser from the PPs, I see. Looks pretty clear on that.

Alysheba I got to think is a closer he made a move prior to the turn which puts him closer when they get to the stretch but he's coming from far back so closer...

Pl. Colony, same he makes that move on the back stretch, he was way back.

Swale. More of E/P, I guess from the derby chart. He pressed the pace and pulled away as the got to the top of the stretch. Sounds a lot like Barbaro, huh? Dont recall seeing this race...

In the 1960s, I count about 6 closers, 2 stalkers (NoDance/Venetian Way) and 2 presser/need to lead (KauaiKing/Lucky Debonair).

So it seems we are approaching a ratio of 50/30/20 or so..

BTW: In thefirst post, I did not mean to imply that I was disagreeig w/ Cardus overall take on closers, I was merely quatifying the numbers. It sounds like I am disagreeing with his overall point.

#15 03-15-2007, 03:20 PM

Okay I've redone my count, some of this based on internet discussion, some of this I looked bact at the trip notes, some PPs. Starting from 1960 with 47 data pts, it seems to break down as:

23/11/6/7

Closer/stalkers/presser/front runner

Some notes: I counted FuPeg as a closer as he was 6 1/2 back at the 1/2 mile. I had to reclassify Charismatic as stalker as he was w/in 4 len. when he started passing all those horses on the backstretch. Smarty I have as stalker, although the Preakness I thought he pressed. Thunder Gulch reclassed as presser looking at the PPs. Barbaro stalker, although some think of him as a E/P. .