"Inside" information & misguided public?

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.

To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.

The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.

Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.

The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.

Well you should have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Well you ahould have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. .

great memory BTW. Lets see, December 31st 1994, I was 11 years old and probably begging my Mommy to let me stay up til midnight!

umm. also, if you give me a 35-1 and i hit i'll send you a percentage? Is that ok with u? (dont think my $20 win bet will effect the pool too much, unless the horse is at tampa)

[blackthroatedwind]

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

how about next time?

[Antitrust32]

also it doesnt have to be 35-1

i'll settle for 32-1

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

also it doesnt have to be 35-1

i'll settle for 32-1

You should maybe be hoping for 3:2.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

how about next time?

LOL..This is FUNNY...This is like the most self-centered person on God's Green Earth,and you are expecting him to let you know a 35-1 shot can run? That is not gunna happen.He will be glad to f with your head afterwards though....About the topic(this thread,) I would say you need to know the circuit ya play very well.In SoCal,I would say the guy who most likes to play games is Craig Lewis. Look at this filly running on Wednesday...Marry Me Larry.She was a 1st time starter on 1/28 on a maiden claimer.He hid her deep(as usual for this guy.)He worked her on 1/17 5f in 103'1 (40th quickest of the day.) She was about the easiest winner you'll see(about as easy as that rag stakes filly today.)Comes back on 2/10 and works her in 47'2(2nd quickest of the day.)So,it isn't that he believes in working horses slowly.He works them slowly until they show they can run fast in the afternoon.I don't remember how he hid the action.She was like 12-1(which is not a lot of action for these,because he has hit 1st time with enough of them that they do take some money.)I am sure he put it in the p3,or pick 4,but I don't think he played it at the track.He could have easily gotten 20-1(or more) at an exchange etc.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

You are welcome.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What exactly does this mean?

My guess is that it was not meant as a compliment...

[ArlJim78]

I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

very well put Jim...it seems like so many people play horses with as much care as they play the lottery or the slot machine, which is to say none. (maybe not people here but you know what i mean)
but then when they know someone can handicap they expect that person to dole out winner like answers to a standarized test...not understanding or caring that there isn't always a right answer to be found...they get mad when the tip they didn't pay for and didn't research isn't very good.
if andy never made another post on this board he will still have given out more good info and insight that most people share in a lifetime at the track

[dellinger63]

Look some people in the business and or those who have developed friendships in the business are given what could be inside information in that a certain trainer and connections may know a horse is training well and looks ready for a big effort due to maybe an equipment change or getting over an injury/ medical problem etc. but no one can say he/she will win for sure.

When this info is passed along it's done as a favor or as quid pro quo for information the source will recieve back at a future time. I'm sure the source expects it to be held close to the vest and not broadcasted on a web site with a thousand members. BTW owes nobody on the board anything. It is up to him when and where to give insight and 'give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach a man to fish and he eats a lifetime.' Go back and listen to him on the archived saturday show and learn to fish a little.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

Which is precisely why I said you should do the work yourself and pick yourself and not follow anyone else's picks and sure as hell not pay for them...If you can't handicap and need to pay for picks, you shouldn't be playing...I'm shocked by how many people follow other each other's plays on here...Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of excellent handicappers here, but why put your money on the line on a horse who you didn't come up with. Strange.

[Cajungator26]

Why is everyone on Andy's case this morning? Cut the guy a break... thank God that some people can pick some nice winners. I sure as hell couldn't manage that this weekend.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

why should blackthroatedwind, or anyone do all the extensive work for a message board to gravy train off it?

I dont think the majority of people fully grasp the level of effort we are talking about.

[Payson Dave]

Just Wondering...Is Freddie Bond still clocking at Gulfstream?...now there is a character...What about old man Cole...the crankiest SOB to ever clock at Saratoga.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

why should nofool, or anyone do all the extensive work for a message board to gravy train off it?

I dont think the majority of people fully grasp the level of effort we are talking about.

oh i understand that this is BTW's business and he shouldn't give away his selections without being paid for them. I also feel that way towards Steve Byk's predic's. When you're in it for a living, you must get your share!

With that said, some one can give me a horse to bet, and if I bet it it will lose. The only person who has given me winners consistantly is a guy Nick Martinez (artist/former jockey) who is at the toga meet. They are ususally in the range from 2-1 to 5-1, but still - a profit is a profit.

Also, Mr Byk gives out winners every day (and nice exotics) yet I just seem to bet the wrong races and the wrong way. I think its because I am 24, poor and dont bankroll correctly. Its also just entertainment for me.. yet I do need to stop going to the track when I can't afford entertainment. I dont know, maybe its just Gulfstream, because I didnt do bad at Toga last year. I need to stick to my guns and only bet Pletcher horses!