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#1
03-09-2007, 08:50 AM
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Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.
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#2
03-09-2007, 08:57 AM
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Not sure that I completely agree....I think that what is important is the delta between the two stategies....I don't think that including the win bet will change that delta...both stategies include the win bet....including it or not including it should not matter one way or the other....if i'm missing something please explain.
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#3
03-09-2007, 09:03 AM
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But secondly, while I agree that the total play is the correct way to make the bet, the question is which method produces more and by how much. Let's say, for arguments sake, we get 300 examples. The totals will be around $4000 for the place vs. exactas. The win bets will add roughly $10K to EACH total. Suppose it is then $14k vs. $14.4K ( either way ) or roughly 2.9%. However, what the results would accurately show, but couldn't be easily determined, is that the exacta or place bet increased THAT return by 10%.
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#4
03-09-2007, 09:14 AM
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Both the place wagers and the chalk/selection exacta wagers are basically insurance bets...It will be interesting to me to see which one is the better of the two.
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#5
03-09-2007, 11:30 AM
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Right, it seems like the heart of the question is " which is the better hedge ".
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#6
03-09-2007, 12:25 PM
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Let's don't throw kumquats in the basket with the apples, it muddles things.
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#7
03-09-2007, 01:19 PM
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After reading this thread and thinking I understood the consensus, I took a look at the results and got promptly confused.
I believe it is because win $ are factored in. If the Win wager is removed (as it is equal between scenarios and therefore a wash) the results will more clearly show when the place wager paid and the exacts wager "failed". When our horse runs 1st or 2nd and the exacta with fav is not hit, the Place player will have earnings and exacta player will have a zero for that race. Under the current method, you need to back out Win payouts to see that the exacta failed in the cases where our horse ran 1st. Without the win $ in, these will stick right out. In any case this is very interesting. Next I vote for the Triple Partial Wheel versus Exacta Box study... Last edited by pmacdaddy : 03-09-2007 at 01:34 PM.
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#8
03-09-2007, 04:08 PM
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It's a great game, it just sucks when we're not cashing.
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#9
03-09-2007, 04:49 PM
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From now on just the place bets vs. the exactas will be tracked...not that including the win made a difference as the differential btw the two totals is what matters....But whatever I'll go with the crowd. That's the way it will be posted starting today.
Grits would also like to me to keep track of how many exactas occur so I will do that as well.
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#10
03-09-2007, 07:48 PM
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DAY TWO MARCH 9, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$59.40
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 15.40 Gulfstream: Race 7-- PL: 19.80 Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 8.60 Santa Anita:Race 7--PL: 12.00 Santa Anita:Race 8--PL: 11.80 + 17.00 TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $14.00 PL $158.00 DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$144.00 Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (13) Total Exactas so far: 1 A 12 Furlong Race for sure but I broke out of the gate like Caller One and Grits---well let's just say she broke like Evening Attire...Of course Caller One won't run 12 panels and EA just won his last race---bad analogy. Last edited by randallscott35 : 03-09-2007 at 10:49 PM.
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#11
03-09-2007, 10:24 PM
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RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)
The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.
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