Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Those are figured in of course....Just when its 10-1 over 10-1 we are both assuming the winner rather than the place horse(just b/c its easier-- and over time the place payout will go either way so it balances)....Mind you as I said before we only have 1 horse in each race, so you can't keep both 10-1's. And I'm saying that from my point of view where your method would help me....AS I said before I wan't it to be right, not to win.

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

Thanks for tracking the data, I'm curious to see how it pans out.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Thanks for tracking the data, I'm curious to see how it pans out.

I'm just glad you pointed that out. Definitely improved the chances of place coming out on top even if marginally.

Not only that, it will make it go faster. I think it will be done within 20 racing days.

[Grits]

RS, in posting the results, at the bottom where noting the number of longshots ITM, can you make note of the exacta wagers that hit, as well?

[randallscott35]

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007 PERFECT FINAL STANDINGS (LOL-at last)

Gulfstream: Race 6-- Grits: 24.40 RS: 31.80
Race 8-- Grits: 39.80 RS: 50.00
Race 9-- Grits: 38.20 RS: 55.00

Aqueduct: Race 1-- Grits: 14.00 RS: 6.50
Race 7-- Grits: 36.60 RS: 48.80+9.10=57.90

Santa Anita: Race 5--Grits: 26.60 RS: 37.80

++ show where multiple 10-1's were figured in as to Snipes point.

An increase of 9.10 due to the new scoring.

DAY ONE FINAL: Grits- 179.60 RS: 239.00
Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (7)

[Payson Dave]

Just thinking out loud here....
If you bet WP and your horse runs first or second you will always cash the place wager.
If you bet W & Chalk/your selection, and your horse runs first or second then you will probably cash your exacta ticket about 33% of the time...(assuming that favorites win a third of the time)...
Doesn't it come down to... the average exacta payouts that you cash need to be more than 3 times the average place payouts that you cash???...

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Just thinking out loud here....
If you bet WP and your horse runs first or second you will always cash the place wager.
If you bet W & Chalk/your selection, and your horse runs first or second then you will probably cash your exacta ticket about 33% of the time...(assuming that favorites win a third of the time)...
Doesn't it come down to... the average exacta payouts that you cash need to be more than 3 times the average place payouts that you cash???...

I would figure that to be right. In all of this though, I add that I do not handicap for a living, day in, day out. But, I've been a student of the game for a good, long while. Others that do, may be able to agree or disagree with you Dave.

I've walked in and created a firestorm it seems. That's not always a good thing, sometimes, yes, sometimes, no.

[Payson Dave]

Grits,
I sure don't see this thread as a firestorm...in fact imho this is a great thread that I'm looking forward to seeing more results on...I would be surprised if there are many people on here that see this as a firestorm...

...once again imho... wagering stategy is just as important as handicapping ability...

[blackthroatedwind]

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.

Not sure that I completely agree....I think that what is important is the delta between the two stategies....I don't think that including the win bet will change that delta...both stategies include the win bet....including it or not including it should not matter one way or the other....if i'm missing something please explain.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just, please, stop including the redundant win bets. It pads the totals while skewing the difference. What you want to know is how much more you will win playing the exacta in percentage terms. Adding the same bet to each total will alter the results.

I agree with this, in that we're looking at two apples, though different varieties.

Let's don't throw kumquats in the basket with the apples, it muddles things.