Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

For it to be an accurate trial any race where a 10-1 shot runs first or second needs to count. Randall gets place money every time whether the horse runs first or second. If the favorite finishes on top of the 10-1 shot then you get the exacta. Otherwise you get nothing.

Good question which I will pose to Andy. My feeling is that technically, we would only be betting one horse in the race each, so even if the 10-1's ran 1-2, we'd only have one of them.

[Grits]

You all need to remove my quote from your post as I did not include both race result scenarios. I have edited my post.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Grits

You all need to remove my quote from your post as I did not include both race result scenarios. I have edited my post.

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.

Sniper, indeed, you're correct. Anthing else?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Grits

Sniper, indeed, you're correct. Anthing else?

Yeah, everything above the asterisks looks good. I agree that there is no point in including the win amounts since they would count on both sides anyways under the scenario.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It still isn't right. You also need to count races where the 10-1 shot finishes second and a horse other than the chalk finishes on top. Those will actually be where the best place payouts will occur.

Those are figured in of course....Just when its 10-1 over 10-1 we are both assuming the winner rather than the place horse(just b/c its easier-- and over time the place payout will go either way so it balances)....Mind you as I said before we only have 1 horse in each race, so you can't keep both 10-1's. And I'm saying that from my point of view where your method would help me....AS I said before I wan't it to be right, not to win.

[randallscott35]

Grits,

Everything is right with it. If you don't want to be involved at all, you don't have to....The differential is going to be exactly the same whether the win is figured in or not. Check my numbers today and you will see that. A chimp can figure that the differential will prove which side is the better bet....but the total payout is going to be shown.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Those are figured in of course....Just when its 10-1 over 10-1 we are both assuming the winner rather than the place horse(just b/c its easier-- and over time the place payout will go either way so it balances)....Mind you as I said before we only have 1 horse in each race, so you can't keep both 10-1's. And I'm saying that from my point of view where your method would help me....AS I said before I wan't it to be right, not to win.

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if that is the correct way to do it. I think the fundamental assumption is since we are counting every case where a 10-1 or higher shot runs top two that every 10-1 shot is being bet by you to place and by grits under the favorite in the exacta. In the case where two longshots hit you would have hit twice while grits would have hit zero times. Check post #88 on here. I think that is what Andy was saying.

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes, Andy convinced me that is the case. Look at my last post. I am going back now to fix today's data.

This study will fly. Thanks Snipes

Thanks for tracking the data, I'm curious to see how it pans out.

[randallscott35]

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007 PERFECT FINAL STANDINGS (LOL-at last)

Gulfstream: Race 6-- Grits: 24.40 RS: 31.80
Race 8-- Grits: 39.80 RS: 50.00
Race 9-- Grits: 38.20 RS: 55.00

Aqueduct: Race 1-- Grits: 14.00 RS: 6.50
Race 7-- Grits: 36.60 RS: 48.80+9.10=57.90

Santa Anita: Race 5--Grits: 26.60 RS: 37.80

++ show where multiple 10-1's were figured in as to Snipes point.

An increase of 9.10 due to the new scoring.

DAY ONE FINAL: Grits- 179.60 RS: 239.00
Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (7)

[Payson Dave]

Just thinking out loud here....
If you bet WP and your horse runs first or second you will always cash the place wager.
If you bet W & Chalk/your selection, and your horse runs first or second then you will probably cash your exacta ticket about 33% of the time...(assuming that favorites win a third of the time)...
Doesn't it come down to... the average exacta payouts that you cash need to be more than 3 times the average place payouts that you cash???...