Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

A statistic sample in the 100s takes care of that.

[Scav]

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Scav

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

And isn't that a very good thing! (I did call his avatar "a little undulating tart" and he cast her off like a spent match.) LOLOL

[2MinsToPost]

No offense, but does this thread not target those whom play the tote board and odds with a couple minutes to post, the "numbers players" who love to dash to the teller and yell out their crazy exacta boxes, keys etc?

I like to find my horses and play them win and place no matter the odds anymore

Pick 3's the same, as SCAVS WOULD SAY - FULL TILT

Tilt is great, and I love it on Friday nights

Dang, I gotta work till 9pm this Friday but am OFF ALL DAY ON SATURDAY!

God bless MEADOWLANDS HARNESS RACING on Friday and Saturday nights!

[blackthroatedwind]

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

[randallscott35]

Actually let me think about this. We both would get the win end so maybe that is right...Now I'm confused.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Yes, I know Andy. I'm just getting fired up.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Okay, burdened with the heavy responsibility of carrying this study forward, I felt I ought to re-read the thread. ;>)

Now I'm curious about what btwind meant by the part I highlighted above. Does the fact that the place payout is given in two pieces somehow overcome the fact that the exacta has a generally bigger takeout?

A dart thrower at Keenland is going to lose 16% plus breakage making place bets. His dart-throwing pal is going to lose 19% plus breakage betting exactas. It's not jumping out at me why the exactas have any mathematical edge. I'm asking because I may be missing something fundamental.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

To further what I just said.....each particular horse is an example...i.e. the horse wins you get X for the place bet and lose the exacta and any horse that places you get X for place and Y for the exacta where Y can be zero.