Handicapping vs Money Management

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'll make one comment and ask one wuestion.

If you look to bet horses whose actual odds exceed your "fair" odds, that's the right thing to do. That's not enough. you must wager more as the actual exceed fair by a greater margin. For example, if you think a horse's fair odds are 5-1 and it's going off at 7-1, you may make your standard wager, say $10. But if that same horse is going off at 8-1 or 10-1, you really need to wager more, perhaps $12 or $15. What's important is that when you have a perceived advantage, you really need to wager more as that advantage grows.

Why does anyone ever bet to place?

I pretty much agree with STS's advice, but I'd qualify it somewhat:

1. Even if you perceive an overlay, you'd better have a good reason why the other bettors are "wrong". That is, what is it they are over- or under-estimating?

2. You should be betting less on longshots than on favs. Yeah, that's a "duh" to some, but others think in terms of flat-betting every race, which is a big mistake from a risk standpoint.

--Dunbar