Nobiz holds lead while Hard Spun drops

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

As for Lukas' horse... he's no where near my top 20, until he wins a race that puts him in the mix. How is he on graded earnings?

I don't like him at all as a Derby horse myself.

However, he is the fastest 3yo in the country on Beyer figures---and when you take into account that his raw naked figure was 18 points faster than the Southwest Stakes winner---unless there was something funky in the wind data, he will quite likely also have run a MONSTER figure on the sheets...because they don't split route and sprint variants.

I would assume that the gap between the Lukas maiden and the Southwest winner, which is 7 points on Beyers, would be a little wider on sheet style figs.

Of course, no one took Medaglia D' Oro that serious, when he won an Oaklawn MSW race, also at six furlongs, in Feb of his 3yo season, by 4 lengths with a 101 Beyer.

And while it's true MDO could only manage a 4th place finish in the Ky Derby, he also had an abysmal trip in that race.

The reason why I was surprised to see him make no ones top 20---is simply that there seems to be a pretty big talent deficiancy in this crop....and unlike quite a few in the top 20...at least this horse has a little talent. And when you factor in that his trainer has won the race three times, and will do everything in his power to get him into the race...I really expected someone to throw him on.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't like him at all as a Derby horse myself.

However, he is the fastest 3yo in the country on Beyer figures---and when you take into account that his raw naked figure was 18 points faster than the Southwest Stakes winner---unless there was something funky in the wind data, he will quite likely also have run a MONSTER figure on the sheets...because they don't split route and sprint variants.

I would assume that the gap between the Lukas maiden and the Southwest winner, which is 7 points on Beyers, would be a little wider on sheet style figs.

Of course, no one took Medaglia D' Oro that serious, when he won an Oaklawn MSW race, also at six furlongs, in Feb of his 3yo season, by 4 lengths with a 101 Beyer.

And while it's true MDO could only manage a 4th place finish in the Ky Derby, he also had an abysmal trip in that race.

The reason why I was surprised to see him make no ones top 20---is simply that there seems to be a pretty big talent deficiancy in this crop....and unlike quite a few in the top 20...at least this horse has a little talent. And when you factor in that his trainer has won the race three times, and will do everything in his power to get him into the race...I really expected someone to throw him on.

Not a bad argument actually, and this line is the reason why.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

DWL has actually won the race four times, I shorted him one.

[Travis Stone]

I think Lukas' horse has a world of potential. Although he did have things go his own way, who knows how good the second horse was. If the second horse comes back to run well, Lukas is in good shape. Soundly defeated him. He looked visually impressive too. I can't tout him over a proven horse yet though into a top 20 - but he's won I'm watching with interest.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's pretty instinctive for people to take that stance. Even among the betting public. Not to beat a dead horse, but that's why the "proven" and "classy" Siphonic and USS Tinosa were 2/5 and 3/1 respectively, in the betting, for the '02 San Felipe. While the more talanted upstart Medaglia D'Oro was better than 8/1.

It was the legendary college basketball coach John Wooden who loved to say "I'd take talent over experience any day." He might have made a pretty good horseplayer as well.

The problem I have with this crop of 3-year-olds, is that outside of ten or eleven of them, I just haven't seen much at all in the way of genuine talent. And precious few of them have both serious talent, experience, and would figure to be effective at 10 furlongs.

Perhaps others have higher opinions of this crop right now. As much as I despise Lukas, and think this horse is probably another Cal Bred sprinter who he will ruin fast, I'd have tossed him in somewhere between 15-to-20, simply on the basis that he has run the fastest figure of any 3yo this year, and hasn't yet proven he's "not good enough."

Considering most people don't share my complete disdain for Lukas and his horses, that's why I was a little bit surprised to see that he wasn't one of the 73 horses to recieve a point in the scoring.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's pretty instinctive for people to take that stance. Even among the betting public. Not to beat a dead horse, but that's why the "proven" and "classy" Siphonic and USS Tinosa were 2/5 and 3/1 respectively, in the betting, for the '02 San Felipe. While the more talanted upstart Medaglia D'Oro was better than 8/1.

It was the legendary college basketball coach John Wooden who loved to say "I'd take talent over experience any day." He might have made a pretty good horseplayer as well.

The problem I have with this crop of 3-year-olds, is that outside of ten or eleven of them, I just haven't seen much at all in the way of genuine talent. And precious few of them have both serious talent, experience, and would figure to be effective at 10 furlongs.

Perhaps others have higher opinions of this crop right now. As much as I despise Lukas, and think this horse is probably another Cal Bred sprinter who he will ruin fast, I'd have tossed him in somewhere between 15-to-20, simply on the basis that he has run the fastest figure of any 3yo this year, and hasn't yet proven he's "not good enough."

Considering most people don't share my complete disdain for Lukas and his horses, that's why I was a little bit surprised to see that he wasn't one of the 73 horses to recieve a point in the scoring.

I feel the same way and keep hoping for a late bloomer(s)...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I feel the same way and keep hoping for a late bloomer(s)...

There are almost always late bloomers that have an impact. That's one big reason why I didn't hesitate to take "All Others" in the Future Wager.

Part of the fun for me now will be watching those 5-2 horses (actually 2.6-to-1 horses) move into and up the Racing Dispatch poll.

--Dunbar

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't like him at all as a Derby horse myself.

Well hell, as of right now I LOVE his chances in this years crop!!!