Opinion of the Best Handicapping Tool

[docicu3]

Coming back to the topic on a day racing is a little slow....

Those of you that are Formulator 4 folks......besides reading the manual are there 1) Ways to filter for late and early speed in a race 2) Account for workouts in any way for a particular horse relavant to the race

It would seem that the "filters" are the thing to learn to manipulate effectively here with this product. Besides the obvious ones Turf or dirt, fast or sloppy, Trainer/Jockey numbers etc. Can you identify lone speed or lone surperior closer with Formulator 4 or am I talking about shaping a race or these new fangled PACE numbers?

If per chance there are any Formulator 4 experts (Hint Hint Andy!!!) Perhaps if you have the time and could post suggestions for one race 2/21/07 like maybe the 7TH at GP as an example of a turf route or the 6TH as an example of a dirt sprint. Laying out an approach to using the filters relevantly other than the obvious Beyer filter which helps but is limited.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just don't have the time right now....actually have to start my Formulator work for tomorrow's Gulfstream card.

I don't really use the filters, sorry, as I use it more for looking into charts.

[docicu3]

If you have a second talk about what you mean when you say "looking into the charts".......I don't mean to put you out just trying some new tool and trying to figure out where to use it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

If you have a second talk about what you mean when you say "looking into the charts".......I don't mean to put you out just trying some new tool and trying to figure out where to use it.

I think Formulator is the greatest handicapping tool ever invented. You have to be willing, and interested, in putting in the time but there are plenty of rewards if you do.

Basically you can reference any of the last three starts ( in North America ) of every entrant. You get the chart from that race, and from there can get the lifetime pps of every horse in that race, and you can reference any other chart from that day's races. It's great for handicapping a circuit that is at all foreign to you as you can get a good look at the relative competition and also search the day's races for any obvious bias. Plus, you can see how horses have done coming out of the previous race ( or races ) and find actual key races ( there are very few ) as opposed to being fooled by what are incorrectly thought of as key races.

[docicu3]

thanks.....I was noticing that you dont buy that a key race is a race where winners are multiple next time out. Are you saying that a key race needs more than two winners next out or bold like the quick sheet does or are you saying that you need to judge a certain level of performance in all of the horses at the same level (MDN clain, alw..etc) of racing? (like the majority of the horses in the race run a new top if you forgive the TGH reference)

Do you think there is an accentuated bounce factor for horses that are in these very competitive races because the drain is likley to be more in a hotly contested race. eg A horse that comes out of a 6F "key race" that has a par of "X" that actually has numbers in say 3 horses 20% above expected par or beyer. do you think those horses are good plays against in sprints next race within 3 weeks?

Do you have some kind of software that keeps track of these races or are they just in the AS computer of PP's?

And yes I have considered decaf on days I am not seeing patients........hope I make you laugh!!!

[MISTERGEE]

have any of you tried to use turfday website. it is also loaded with info, and reminds me of what you say formulator is good for such as cross referencing charts and pp's. i am not sure how the costs compare. last i checked i believe turfday was about $75 a month. also, as far as the sheets go i do seem to be doing better with them, but any thoughts on cost. for example 3 tracks on thorograph is $60 a day i dont think there is any volume discounts that i know of. if so please let me know. compare this to a form full of beyers $5?

[docicu3]

If you go to the local track (Laurel for me) you get 3 or 4 tracks for $35-40

TGH does have a great product but Ole Mr Brown is not into volume discounts on any level. But to be fair they do give away all tracks between Xmas and New Years on line so they do make some concessions.....

They recently bumped 2nd, 3rd and 4th product's of a given day prices by 25-33% this year which I think actually will hurt them overall as customers aware of this I believe will buy less but if you don't know about the increase it probably doesn't hurt them that much.

They see growth in their business with more customers from more effective advertising and lose sight of the loyal customers who are buying less than in the past.

Just a difference of opinion of business practices but make no mistake about it I am a big advocate of TGH....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

thanks.....I was noticing that you dont buy that a key race is a race where winners are multiple next time out. Are you saying that a key race needs more than two winners next out or bold like the quick sheet does or are you saying that you need to judge a certain level of performance in all of the horses at the same level (MDN clain, alw..etc) of racing? (like the majority of the horses in the race run a new top if you forgive the TGH reference)

Do you think there is an accentuated bounce factor for horses that are in these very competitive races because the drain is likley to be more in a hotly contested race. eg A horse that comes out of a 6F "key race" that has a par of "X" that actually has numbers in say 3 horses 20% above expected par or beyer. do you think those horses are good plays against in sprints next race within 3 weeks?

Do you have some kind of software that keeps track of these races or are they just in the AS computer of PP's?

And yes I have considered decaf on days I am not seeing patients........hope I make you laugh!!!

I basically believe that any shortcut is a road to losing....and defining a race a " key " race simply based upon results, without delving into the truth behind those results, is a shortcut and an error in judgement. What if two horses come out of a maiden race at Saratoga and break their maidens, at odds on, at Delaware and Phili Park, should that somehow elevate the status of the race they came out of? What if four of the returnees came back to improve their Beyer figs, or any figs you use, dramatically in their next start without winning, should one NOT perhaps elevate that race?

Once again, I basically don't believe at all in bounce, and think it is most likely the results of a good or beneficial situation one day and a less good one the next. Plus, I believe the prevalance of drugs has created many false performances that both can't be duplicated and physically affect a horse for its future starts.

Software? I'm lucky I can log into this place.

[docicu3]

Before it goes off Formulator would imply 5/16 here in the 3rd at GP