FG 4

[golfer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Am I the only one that finds it extremely amusing that everytime there is a BBB discussion some " poster " comes out of the woodwork with his ( or her ) first post telling us about all his successes and giving us a link to another board? Of course, they can't reference his plays here, as all of those have been losing ones.

It's kind of the handicapping version of " you should see the other guy ".



By the way, the entire notion of " out-handicapping " someones shows a complete misunderstanding of what playing the horses is all about. There are a lot of terrific handicappers out there who have no clue whatsoever how to make money. The most successful horseplayer I know, and he's VERY successful, has a terrible opinion. I think I'm a pretty good handicapper....I also probably chose the wrong road.

Andy, this may not be the best thread to ask this question (probably needs it's own), but I find your third to last sentence above VERY interesting! Would you mind elaborating?

[blackthroatedwind]

There is a wide chasm of difference between having good opinions and turning them into real profits. Take the counter example, how many times have you left the track feeling like you had good opinions, where some won, and you don't feel like you capitalized on them as well as you should or could have? I would guess that most would answer somewhere around " frequently ". There is a substantial difference between having good opinions and putting them together in a way, at the windows, that profits genuinely from them. As one is going to have many more days of mediocre opinions/results than the opposite it is extraordinarily important to take advantage of the opportunities you get.

This is frankly why I consider it of the utmost importance to bet. Putting down opinions on paper, while perhaps a fun exercise, causes no pain, and it is only in the pain of losing that one will be forced to try and correct their mistakes. Learning to construct winning tickets ( whether it's exactas, triples, supers, doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s or Pick-6s ) is the true exercise that will teach you to at least have a chance to win. Learning to identify traps, or situations where spreading is necessary, can really only be exposed when you constantly cause yourself pain by making the wrong move. Consider it sort of a horseplayer's Pavlov's Dog exercise. Some people will continue to make the same mistakes forever, and these are the ones that have a basic inability to admit their own fallacies, but the ones who really want to win, and ultimately will have a chance to, are the ones that learn to adapt. You cannot learn to adapt without betting at least enough money to cause yourself some pain when you lose.

Another reason people prevent themselves from having a chance to win is exposed in this thread, and that is the immature notion that it's a contest of who's smarter, and the winner is the best handicapper. A horseplayer has to get over that as the best handicapper is rarely also the best horseplayer. And the best horseplayer is the one who wins the most money.....and that is what playing this game is REALLY about.

[golfer]

If pain is the key to turning things around, I should be in good shape for the future... the last month has been very painful. I went out and played Gulfstream yesterday (didn't have time to post any picks, GOOD THING), it was a train wreck. How much time do you allot to figuring out where you went wrong?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

If pain is the key to turning things around, I should be in good shape for the future... the last month has been very painful. I went out and played Gulfstream yesterday (didn't have time to post any picks, GOOD THING), it was a train wreck. How much time do you allot to figuring out where you went wrong?

I wouldn't say I allot time, and often you sort of know where you went wrong, and sometimes you did the best you feel you could have and it just doesn't work out. But one has to spend some time at least going back over things and seeing what you may have missed or could have done differently.

It's subjective and virtually everybody has to try to keep learning as they go along. That goes for all of us.

Hey D

Thanks for the kind words. It seems only a few on this board post elsewhere. I reviewed my previous posts, this forum, and could only find one person who could truly feel insulted and that was the "fog jock" who plugged the horse in Xmas eve at FG.

That post may have led to the defamation question. Many here demanded "proof", yet a similar post on the Nola forum did not raise any eyebrows and in fact yielded some corroborating anecdotal "evidence".

I suspect heresay would be inadmissable however. On another note I see your son is going to invest in mutual funds rather than pick 4's; oh the mistakes youngsters make! BBB

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hey D

1.) that was the "fog jock" who plugged the horse in Xmas eve at FG.

2.) That post may have led to the defamation question. Many here demanded "proof", yet a similar post on the Nola forum did not raise any eyebrows and in fact yielded some corroborating anecdotal "evidence".

1. Again, you're a little on the crazy side I think with that one. I'll gladly pull that thread back up if you'd like...you know, the one where you took wild stabs in the dark about race fixing, even in the face of about a dozen posts worth of statistical evidence showing that you were completely out of line.

2. Seems to say a bit more about the people who post there than those who post here. You seem to think that when you post outrageous claims like that, the forum on which people gladly go along with that sort of silliness are the ones to be respected. You insinuate that those on a forum like this one, who attacked the situation logically were the strange ones for wanting "proof" or "evidence" outside of your outrageous and out of line (not to mention completely debunked by more than one Derby Trail poster) claims.

It still appears, two months later, that you are sour about not having been able to "out-handicap" the rest of the players in a LA Statebred Allowance race.

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hey D

Thanks for the kind words. It seems only a few on this board post elsewhere. I reviewed my previous posts, this forum, and could only find one person who could truly feel insulted and that was the "fog jock" who plugged the horse in Xmas eve at FG.

That post may have led to the defamation question. Many here demanded "proof", yet a similar post on the Nola forum did not raise any eyebrows and in fact yielded some corroborating anecdotal "evidence".

I suspect heresay would be inadmissable however. On another note I see your son is going to invest in mutual funds rather than pick 4's; oh the mistakes youngsters make! BBB

Echoing what I said in one of my earlier posts, given the reputation for dishonesty of the infamous "fog jockey," in my opinion it would be difficult for him to prove up a claim for damages based on defamation of character. This is particularly true in Louisiana, where said jockey has plied his trade (when not serving suspensions) for many years and is well-known to horsemen in the state.

I'm sure all you guys and gals remember Billy Patin and Valhol, who won the Arkansas Derby at a boxcar price only to be DQ'ed from the purse money because the jockey carried a buzzer. I have no fear of facing a defamation claim over that last stasement because, in this country, truth is an absolute defense to defamation.

Patin and the "fog jockey" have ridden for much of their careers at the "minor" racetracks in Louisiana, i.e. Evangeline Downs, Delta Downs, and formerly Jefferson Downs, and I suspect that buzzers have been and are occasionally used on those circuits by certain riders. This is not to impugn the character of any individual who rides or has ridden at those tracks; it is just my opinion given my experiences, observations, and conversations with horsemen. I do believe that an effort is made to police that sort of activity; however, as the Patin/Valhol incident shows, not all such efforts are successful.

All that said, I have no knowledge of what happened in the race in question on Xmas eve at the Fair Grounds. We all try to explain aberrant results in ways that make sense to us. In retrospect, Valhol,although a maiden when he won the Arkansas Derbty, may have won without benefit of a battery as he was probably the best horse in the race; that doesn't mean that Patin didn't drop a buzzer on the track, in full view of the cameras, after the race was over.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by RealBigD

We all try to explain aberrant results in ways that make sense to us.

Which in this case, was the logical property that states:

1.) I can out-handicap any horseplayer in the United States

then

2.) I did not have the longshot winner

therefore

3.) Obviously, someone was cheating.

It was pure uncalled for folly in every sense of the word.

BigD. Like the others in this thread, I get a good feeling from you, so don't interpret this as an attack on you in any way.

I know you weren't here for Derby Trail's Best Thread Ever, so here it is if you'd like to check it out. The numbers against the claim of fixing a race are positively damning. Who risks their entire livelihood in order to cheat, just to get a horse to improve roughly a length and a half off their previous best race ever? It wasn't necessary. So naturally, you've got to cut many of us some slack for not being willing to just follow the lemming off the cliff in order to justify a longshot winning a race which in retrospect, he had every right to be a competitor in to begin with.