Any Given Saturday

Kasept · #1 02-17-2007, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

88 Beyer and he was never even shown the whip. Hand ridden... he was trotting at the end. Pretty much the kind of effort I would want for an early prep against a weak field.

PG,

What I would not like if I was a fan of 'Saturday' was his considerably shortened stride in the stretch.. I may have seen something that isn't there, but to me he did not look good finishing up. And I don't mean under the wire.. I mean when clear midstretch when he should have been at his absolute best. He was not reaching out a lick. That said, Tampa has a very strange surface that doesn't seem to flatter horses visually. I'll have to watch it again.

#2 02-17-2007, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

PG,

What I would not like if I was a fan of 'Saturday' was his considerably shortened stride in the stretch.. I may have seen something that isn't there, but to me he did not look good finishing up. And I don't mean under the wire.. I mean when clear midstretch when he should have been at his absolute best. He was not reaching out a lick. That said, Tampa has a very strange surface that doesn't seem to flatter horses visually. I'll have to watch it again.

You may be right. He was being hand ridden in a stern manner, just looked like he knew where the finish line was to me. Maybe JV legs and body told him it over, that is difficult to see. And I really think this horse will have to come from mid pack with the real derby contenders. He does not have the early speed to run up front imo.

ArlJim78 · #3 02-17-2007, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

PG,

What I would not like if I was a fan of 'Saturday' was his considerably shortened stride in the stretch.. I may have seen something that isn't there, but to me he did not look good finishing up. And I don't mean under the wire.. I mean when clear midstretch when he should have been at his absolute best. He was not reaching out a lick. That said, Tampa has a very strange surface that doesn't seem to flatter horses visually. I'll have to watch it again.

That is exactly my summary of the performance, he did not look good today to me in the context of looking for live derby prospects. The stride was short. I did not see a horse with a lot of energy in reserve down the lane. My opinion is that there wasn't a whole lot more there.

#4 02-17-2007, 09:44 PM

Way too early still. As I watch it again, when JV took a look back around the final turn into the stretch, the horse kinda of said "what am I supposed to do?" for a moment... I really cant take much out of this at all upon review. Running on the beach sand... and the 2nd place horse had a big ground saving trip on a track that leaders held well on today, early races at least. But I was not expecting to see the horse to run completely away from the others anyway based on what I have seen from him. Expectations before a race play a big role in how one views the race.

But I do think its true the horse is rated highly because of Pletcher and not his accomplishments.

The Southwest should be much more interesting.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #5 02-17-2007, 10:44 PM

i really dont see anything wrong at all with the horses performance today. the horse did it pretty easy and wasnt fully extended and thats notta bad thing this time of year when youre on the trail. the horse has proven himself@3 different tracks now and has already showed churchill isnt gonna be a problem for him if he makes it. hes a half length from being undefeated and theres no shame in losing to the lone horse who has defeated him. i think the harshness on him is unwarranted at this point

blackthroatedwind · #6 02-17-2007, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

i really dont see anything wrong at all with the horses performance today. the horse did it pretty easy and wasnt fully extended and thats notta bad thing this time of year when youre on the trail. the horse has proven himself@3 different tracks now and has already showed churchill isnt gonna be a problem for him if he makes it. hes a half length from being undefeated and theres no shame in losing to the lone horse who has defeated him. i think the harshness on him is unwarranted at this point

I don't think it's " harshness " at all. It's just a reasonably honest evaluation of TODAY'S race. I don't think anyone suggested he couldn't ( and shouldn't ) improve.....it's really just as DrugS said......he didn't run very fast. Even in a first start he probably should have run a little faster for a horse who is getting so much hype. More it's just a slight cause for pause.

hockey2315 · #7 02-17-2007, 11:54 PM

I don't understand how anyone can say that this horse doesn't have heart after the way he battled with Tiz Wonderful, who would probably be one of the top three derby contenders at this point if he hadn't gotten hurt. I agree that his race today wasn't exactly incredible, but he did pretty much everything that was asked of him. I was looking forward to seeing AGS run again to try and get a better feel for his talent level, but unfortunately, I think his race today was inconclusive.

slotdirt · #8 02-18-2007, 08:32 AM

How good is Distorted Humor? That's all.

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 02-17-2007, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I did not see a horse with a lot of energy in reserve down the lane. My opinion is that there wasn't a whole lot more there.

He's a grinding type....the way he finished doesn't bother me. He was twitching his ears once he put the field away, and never left the impression that he was a spent horse.

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

Bigsmc · #10 02-18-2007, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

He ran .10 second slower than Blue Grass Cat's 2006 Sam Davis.

Coming to the wire, his ears were pricked and he was looking around. He got squeezed a bit and ate some dirt early on. It was a good education that took nothing out of him.

The biggest plus, in my handicapping mind, is when the Tampa Bay Derby comes up, and the challengers ship in from So. Fla., he will have a distinct advantage because he now has a trip over the surface.

ArlJim78 · #11 02-18-2007, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's a grinding type....the way he finished doesn't bother me. He was twitching his ears once he put the field away, and never left the impression that he was a spent horse.

The only legit knock on his performance I see is that he simply didn't run very fast.

Of course, the bottom line is that it wasn't fast. I didn't mean to imply he was spent, it was just my impression that the performance was much closer to his best than people might think.

The fact that his ears were twitching doesn't do much for me, I can't read too much into that.

Pointg5 · #12 02-18-2007, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

PG,

What I would not like if I was a fan of 'Saturday' was his considerably shortened stride in the stretch.. I may have seen something that isn't there, but to me he did not look good finishing up. And I don't mean under the wire.. I mean when clear midstretch when he should have been at his absolute best. He was not reaching out a lick. That said, Tampa has a very strange surface that doesn't seem to flatter horses visually. I'll have to watch it again.

Remember Sun King's uninspiring prep race at Tampa, he wasn't a factor in the Derby, he's turned out to be a nice horse, I'll give him a pass here...

ArlJim78 · #13 02-18-2007, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Remember Sun King's uninspiring prep race at Tampa, he wasn't a factor in the Derby, he's turned out to be a nice horse, I'll give him a pass here...

So now this horse is like Sun King? I guess we could say the same about any horse that runs an uninspiring race, yet they are not all going to turn out to be Sun Kings.
Besides, I believe the current discussion here is focused on the derby and not to say that the horse can't develop to be a nice one down the road.

Pointg5 · #14 02-18-2007, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So now this horse is like Sun King? I guess we could say the same about any horse that runs an uninspiring race, yet they are not all going to turn out to be Sun Kings.
Besides, I believe the current discussion here is focused on the derby and not to say that the horse can't develop to be a nice one down the road.

No, I was agreeing with Kasept that it's a funny track...

I don't think it was all that bad or good, coming off of a layoff on a quirky track...He'll get another chance...