My Derby Trend.....

[JJP]

IMO, the single biggest factor(s) in handicapping the Derby winner is 1)find the key prep, 2) determine who was the best horse in that race, adjusting for pace, ground loss and/or bias.

Many times it isn't the winner (Monarchos in the Wood, Real Quiet in the SA Derby, Silver Charm in the SA Derby, Unbridled in the Blue Grass, possibly Giacomo in the SA Derby that speed ran 1-2-3 around the track) of that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by JJP

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted.

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

In the '01 Wood...Richly Blended, who broke his maiden by 15 lengths earlier in the year, and won the Gotham in his prior start, was loose on the lead. Congaree stalked him.

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

Congaree just loved AQU...he was 4-for-4 there in his career---winning two Cigar Miles, a Wood Memorial, and a Carter...all of them supremely impressive fashion.

[tiznowthegreat]

Right again, funny cide was the only in 03

[mark2061mn]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

woah. for 7 years i've put up with you insulting one of the greatly most underrated horses of all time, and now you call IC a freak?

what is this world coming to?

the real reason, btw, that both IC and congaree lost the derby didnt have anything to do with racing styles, birthdays, trends, astrological signs, or anything else of that superstitous nonsense.

no, they both lost because i had both of them at 125/1 (150/1 on IC) or more in future book bets.

nuff said!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

woah. for 7 years i've put up with you insulting one of the greatly most underrated horses of all time, and now you call IC a freak?

I was obviously just kidding....

He's a bigger bum than Sun King or Meadow Flight.

Sun King a bum? That would mean 95% of todays horses are bums.

[mark2061mn]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

btw, i know this is slightly off topic, but artax, imo, was a vastly underrated racehorse. i really do believe he was better going two turns, and would have proven it with handling that ranked anything better than the absolute moronic management he received at the hands of bradshaw and ernie p.

i still cant believe bradshaw ran him against IC and RQ when he knew he was anemic!

A liitle off topic but...
I remember being at Saratoga one morning for morning works when Baffert was getting Congaree ready as a 2yo....This would have been in July or August...what month did Congareee make his first start...My memory may be incorrect but I'm thinking that at the time that I saw him that morning, he had not raced yet...I do remember that Baffert was very high on the horse...the ownwers were there also...trying to remember...not sure but it seems like the owners were Stonerside...anyway he looked very impressive that morning at the Spa...

[JJP]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

In the '01 Wood...Richly Blended, who broke his maiden by 15 lengths earlier in the year, and won the Gotham in his prior start, was loose on the lead. Congaree stalked him.

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

Congaree just loved AQU...he was 4-for-4 there in his career---winning two Cigar Miles, a Wood Memorial, and a Carter...all of them supremely impressive fashion.

You're going by how the horses looked on paper going into the race, not what actually happened. I loved Real Quiet and Monarchos in the Derby for a reason....both were compromised by soft to slow paces in those preps and still ran well. I don't care if Artax was in there or not, they went slowly and SA was notorious for being speed favoring. You're right about Richly Blended's record, but he went slowly as well. Anyone who watched the Wood knew Monarchos had little or no chance to catch Congare, who prompted that soft pace.

I do agree w/your point about the expected pace in the Derby usually being fast. Too many dillusional owners of horses who shouldn't be running past 1 1/16 miles.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Well, we will just have to disagree.

I bet Real Queit and had the exacta in that year's Derby, and while I didn't bet either Congaree or Monarchos in the Derby--I personally felt going in that Monarchos was the more dangerous of the two because of the pace.

However, I just don't think it's fair to say they that those two ran better than Congaree and Indian Charlie in their Derby preps.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by JJP

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

Congaree ran an incredible race in that Derby. He struck the front too soon or he might have been your winner... the rest of the pace finished nearly dead last.