My Derby Trend.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hard Spun fits your profile.

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

the delaware race... yes. was thinking of the penna nursery

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Penn Nursery wouldn't have met on Beyer figures though.

If anyone has the '03 Derby Past Performances, I'd be curious to know if Funny Cide was the only horse in the race who fit.

[JJP]

IMO, the single biggest factor(s) in handicapping the Derby winner is 1)find the key prep, 2) determine who was the best horse in that race, adjusting for pace, ground loss and/or bias.

Many times it isn't the winner (Monarchos in the Wood, Real Quiet in the SA Derby, Silver Charm in the SA Derby, Unbridled in the Blue Grass, possibly Giacomo in the SA Derby that speed ran 1-2-3 around the track) of that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by JJP

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted.

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

In the '01 Wood...Richly Blended, who broke his maiden by 15 lengths earlier in the year, and won the Gotham in his prior start, was loose on the lead. Congaree stalked him.

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

Congaree just loved AQU...he was 4-for-4 there in his career---winning two Cigar Miles, a Wood Memorial, and a Carter...all of them supremely impressive fashion.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by JJP

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

Congaree ran an incredible race in that Derby. He struck the front too soon or he might have been your winner... the rest of the pace finished nearly dead last.