Sun King

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

While perhaps there is something admirable about your enthusiasm, believe it or not, you aren't an expert, and these posts of yours make this more and more apparent. If you would spend less time belaboring your mediocre points, and more time thinking about what the knowledgable posters here have said, you might actually learn something.

Because you do not understand trips and trip handicapping, and thus don't understand why Invasor had a trip that compromised him from running his best race, does not mean he had a good trip. One thing is for sure....Invasor had less than an ideal trip and in fact a tougher one than he had in the Donn.

You're entitled to your opinions but that doesn't elevate them above those around here that have earned credibility.

BTW, I actually wanted to ask you something on this topic. We've discussed trip handicapping before, in relation to the Breeders' Futurity and though we might not have completely agreed, I very clearly understood your point and respect it tremendously. Anyway, don't you think trip handicapping is in a way the most subjective type of handicapping in horse racing? I mean figures can't really be disputed, but you being a more intellectual person are able to infer much more from a race than say others. I mean, I've been around horse racing a long time, but you are definitely going to be able to identify things from a race that I won't.

I think, and you kind of allude to this a bit, that most people see trip handicapping as identifying trouble that a horse was in and betting him next time out. That's not nearly all of it though. There are countless others. One that I like is when a speed horse breaks slowly, gets absolutely gunned from there, then tires. He/she often proves to be a good bet next time out with a more consistent trip.

So, I guess I was asking a question there, I'm just interested in your opinion a bit more, as I'm always interested in honing what minute handicapping skills I may have. Thanks in advance.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

BTW, I actually wanted to ask you something on this topic. We've discussed trip handicapping before, in relation to the Breeders' Futurity and though we might not have completely agreed, I very clearly understood your point and respect it tremendously. Anyway, don't you think trip handicapping is in a way the most subjective type of handicapping in horse racing? I mean figures can't really be disputed, but you being a more intellectual person are able to infer much more from a race than say others. I mean, I've been around horse racing a long time, but you are definitely going to be able to identify things from a race that I won't.

I think, and you kind of allude to this a bit, that most people see trip handicapping as identifying trouble that a horse was in and betting him next time out. That's not nearly all of it though. There are countless others. One that I like is when a speed horse breaks slowly, gets absolutely gunned from there, then tires. He/she often proves to be a good bet next time out with a more consistent trip.

So, I guess I was asking a question there, I'm just interested in your opinion a bit more, as I'm always interested in honing what minute handicapping skills I may have. Thanks in advance.

NT

It's a great question and I think you are right about a lot of what you say. It is subjective but also supremely logical. The biggest problem people that don't understand have was correctly pointed out by you...they see trouble and then look to bet that horse the next time it runs. That is yet another recipe for losing.

To me, what people need to do is sort of take the whole trip apart and then put it back together and view it as a whole. The most basic mistake people make involves a horse who is getting a perfect trip, maybe saving ground behind the pace, and he/she has to steady or wait in traffic for room, and then perhaps gets free too late and ends up losing a relatively close race. The initial reaction of " if that horse had gotten out it would have won " may well be true, but it would have won with a perfect trip, and the sound horseplayer would downgrade that performance the next time the horse runs. Instead, they mistakenly upgrade it. Or perhaps I should say substantially upgrade it.

The example you gave may be a good one, though it would depend on the horse and where it was racing and is racing next, but certainly you have pointed out the essense of effective trip handicapping, which is finding horses who's performances were compromised by events during the running of the race. Most of this is often very subtle, often more subtle than the tough trip Invasor had that DrugS correctly pointed out, as it can be about understanding the dynamics of a race and how that helped or hindered the competitors.

Sometimes trips can be as simple as trouble or being wide, assuming the horse still performed well or was severly compromised by a bias, and assuming that trouble did in fact severly hamper them, hopefully in a way that isn't obvious. Because, identifying trouble is fine, but only useful if you can also find a way to use it to make money in the future.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

ok i guess i understand what your saying black... but i have seen alot of races, and i just dont think he got that bad of a trip, why is that a bad thing for me to think that ? i was there live that day and have watched the race 10 times, maybe you can explain to me why the trip was so bad, and help me understand.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok i guess i understand what your saying black... but i have seen alot of races, and i just dont think he got that bad of a trip, why is that a bad thing for me to think that ? i was there live that day and have watched the race 10 times, maybe you can explain to me why the trip was so bad, and help me understand.

It's been explained in this thread.

He made an extremely premature move into a very contentious pace. This is not only hard to sustain but also against his style of running. He simply ran harder, for longer, and faster, than everybody else in the race. Sun King, who may be my personal favorite horse of all time, was the major beneficiary of this set up, and yet still couldn't beat him.

As an example, I bet Premium Tap when he won the Woodford for the simple reason that he too raced close to that pace in the Whitney, and still managed to finish at least reasonably close ( and he lost by 7 1/2 lengths ). If I thought he ran well you can only imagine how well I must think Invasor ran.

And, by the way, you can call me Andy. Blackthroatedwind is a song.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's been explained in this thread.

He made an extremely premature move into a very contentious pace. This is not only hard to sustain but also against his style of running. He simply ran harder, for longer, and faster, than everybody else in the race. Sun King, who may be my personal favorite horse of all time, was the major beneficiary of this set up, and yet still couldn't beat him.

As an example, I bet Premium Tap when he won the Woodford for the simple reason that he too raced close to that pace in the Whitney, and still managed to finish at least reasonably close ( and he lost by 7 1/2 lengths ). If I thought he ran well you can only imagine how well I must think Invasor ran.

Which is, for continued simplification's sake, to say that this race needs to be not viewed as just a race in itself. It needs to be compared to the other races that Invasor has been in. With that in mind, and looking at all of the other races he runs, this was an anomaly, and one that certainly could or should have cost him the race. But it still didn't. He had every reason to lose after rushing up to Flower Alley against his running style (which at the time, seemed like a wise move because most thought FA would be similar to how he was the year before), yet still won.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

ok andy ... well i guess i have alot of learning to do then, because the race i saw was..... early on he was well off the pace and then moved up while i guess i can agree he might have ran harder, for a horse of his caliber, was that trip really considered bad ? i think he got alot worst trip in the donn, he checked badly and was all bottled up in the stretch.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok andy ... well i guess i have alot of learning to do then, because the race i saw was..... early on he was well off the pace and then moved up while i guess i can agree he might have ran harder, for a horse of his caliber, was that trip really considered bad ? i think he got alot worst trip in the donn, he checked badly and was all bottled up in the stretch.

donn was visual trouble. you could see it.

whitney was trouble based on his running style. he ran a race that he doesn't run, and still outlasted a horse who had the tables entirely set up for him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

donn was visual trouble. you could see it.

whitney was trouble based on his running style. he ran a race that he doesn't run, and still outlasted a horse who had the tables entirely set up for him.

Exactly what I was about to say.

PointGiven, you are seeing obvious trouble, and overrating it, while failing to see trips that are disadventageous....most likely because they aren't slapping you across the face. In this game you will never make money running with the herd and seeing everything as others see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok andy ... well i guess i have alot of learning to do then, because the race i saw was..... early on he was well off the pace and then moved up while i guess i can agree he might have ran harder, for a horse of his caliber, was that trip really considered bad ? i think he got alot worst trip in the donn, he checked badly and was all bottled up in the stretch.

Invasor, an extremely good horse but not a GREAT horse, has demonstrated an ability to race against his better nature twice and still be successful. He did this in the Pimlico Special and the Whitney, so that while neither performance in result was remarkable, each showed that he had even more ability than a simple win in those races demonstrated.

What you are missing is that premature moves on the backstretch, especially into hot paces ( that collapse as the pace did in the Whitney ), almost certainly result in disaster. For Invasor the results were not only not disasterous they were the best they could be. This is what stamped him as a top horse...and frankly why many of us felt he was easily Bernardini's equal going into the Classic.

These horses are not machines and most have preferred running styles. Invasor was able to perform extremely well, at the highest levels, while racing AGAINST his strengths. When he finally got a situation where the race played into his hands he won the BC Classic against the mistakenly invincible, and supposed superstar, Bernardini.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok andy ... well i guess i have alot of learning to do then, because the race i saw was..... early on he was well off the pace and then moved up while i guess i can agree he might have ran harder, for a horse of his caliber, was that trip really considered bad ? i think he got alot worst trip in the donn, he checked badly and was all bottled up in the stretch.

It was no coincidence that there were six horses near the pace and the five other than Invasor wound up the last five to cross the finish line. The 2nd through 4th place finishers were 3rd to last, last, and 2nd to last early. When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It was no coincidence that there were six horses near the pace and the five other than Invasor would up the last five to cross the finish line. The 2nd through 4th place finishers were 3rd to last, last, and 2nd to last early. When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

Also may be worth noticing that of the off the pace horses in that race I can't name one who came back to run well. We Can Seek got handled easily by Wanderin Boy in the Brooklyn, Sun King lost the Woodward to a horse he beat handily the time before, West Virginia subsequently lost NY bred races to Naughty New Yorker and Organizer.

Sometimes the trip can be looked at through multiple lenses.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

Exactly...

And an understanding of pace was also very key in evaluating Invasor's Donn Handicap trip. Had he been taken back, and got jammed up inside like he did, in a real slow paced raced, it would have been nearly impossible for him to win...and he would have had a monster bad trip.

However, the Donn was run through VERY rapid early fractions, which played to Invasor's advantage, as he was rating kindly off that hot pace. And the final three furlongs of the race was run in comically slow time for the Grade 1 older male level---due in part to the strong early pace.

Basically, Invasor's trip in the Donn was perfect for six furlongs, and though he encountered very legit trouble when the race was falling apart in front of him, the final three furlongs of the race was run so slow, that he needed only get running room in order to win comfortably.

If Invasor had been able to skate through the rail unmolested---he would have won by a much larger margin for sure....but that would have been what is reffered to as "a trip of a lifetime" ---because, not only would the trip itself be fantastic, but all the circumstances of the race went in the horses favor to boot.

Think of the trip Street Sense had in the BC Juvie, which led to his 10 length margin of victory. He saved all the ground on a very live rail, while rating in 13th place, behind absurdly fast fractions. He somehow managed to skate through a collapsing race, while saving every inch of ground on the inside. That is the textbook trip of a lifetime.