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#1
02-09-2007, 11:35 AM
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Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..
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"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel 
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#2
02-09-2007, 11:45 AM
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Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.
There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more. I'll wait until derby day if this is the case -bt-
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#3
02-09-2007, 11:49 AM
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In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.
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#4
02-09-2007, 11:54 AM
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I think the worst bet right now is anyone in the Oaks.
Outside of Dreaming of Anna (who may not even go to the Oaks) there doesn't seem to be any standouts at all. The fact that neither Octave or Cotton Blossom are showing up in the Davona Dale may be proof that they are as mediocre as they looked last fall. The fillies out west are all jumbled together, too. It's just a mess trying to figure out this division.
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#5
02-09-2007, 12:10 PM
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http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#6
02-09-2007, 12:20 PM
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if i had to make a bet:
Circular Quay: 20-1, if this horse makes it to the Derby i don't think there is a chance that he will have this high of odds. The public will not let those connections be that high of a price (unless he throws in some clunkers between now and may) Forfathers: 80-1, for sh!ts an giggles -bt-
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#7
02-10-2007, 08:39 AM
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That's actually close to my approach to the Derby. I try to pick up futures along the way that will allow me an arbitrage come Derby Day. Too bad the offshore scene has changed so dramatically from a year ago. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#8
02-10-2007, 12:33 PM
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Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#9
02-10-2007, 01:28 PM
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#11
02-09-2007, 12:05 PM
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live odds: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime Analysis and "post positions": http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/co...1-horse-horse-
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@BDiDonatoTDN
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#12
02-09-2007, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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