Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?

hockey2315 · #1 02-09-2007, 10:56 AM

I'm going to play $30 on Any Given Saturday, $10 on Adore the Gold, $5 on Forefathers, and $5 on Drums of Thunder. . .

I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . .

I wouldn't go too crazy with futures. . . especially with the lower priced horses. . . You can always wrap them up in exotics on Derby Day. . .

Cajungator26 · #2 02-09-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . .

I love her as well (Jim Squires bred her.) As for my derby horse, I'm sticking with Liquidity, but I doubt I'll make a futures bet on him because his odds (if he enters the gate) will probably be higher than that on derby day.

brianwspencer · #3 02-09-2007, 11:29 AM

Right now (granted we're super early in the betting), Liquidity looks like an absolute steal. I don't like the horse very much (not in my top 5-10), but with odds vs. talent, his odds are way out of whack...we'll see how the rest of the weekend goes before deciding.

Drums of Thunder is an interesting one in there too at lofty odds.

Maybe even Forefathers if he stays near 70-1.

randallscott35 · #4 02-09-2007, 11:34 AM

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

paisjpq · #5 02-09-2007, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me

can't do it from here.

slotdirt · #6 02-09-2007, 12:40 PM

Some value here, but I wouldn't place a bet on any of the favorites. Odds are you'll see equal to better odds depending on how the Derby preps are run.

randallscott35 · #7 02-09-2007, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me

can't do it from here.

What do you want, I'll book it at whatever it closes at for you on Sunday? You aren't going to bet much anyway, so I don't mind. We'll talk later.

#8 02-09-2007, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

Downthestretch55 · #9 02-09-2007, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

pgardn,
The only one that looks good to me is Exhale...but not at 20-1.
In the Oaks...all others.

ManilaRose · #10 02-09-2007, 01:57 PM

I'm betting Exhale and Ravel. Since I'm not betting a ton of money I'm waiting until the last minute on Sunday to see if I'm getting better odds in the future pool or at bodog.com. Ravel is 22-1 at bodog so I suspect I'll be betting him there. Exhale is 40-1 at bodog. I'm not sure if he'll be that high in the futures pool come Sunday or not. As far as Exhale is concerned I'm basically betting on whether or not he starts in the Derby. If he does(which is a big if) he will be much lower than the 40-1 odds being offered considering the fact that he will have to run VERY well in the Lewis and Santa Anita Derby to have enough earnings to make the starting gate in the KY Derby. I'm thinking I'm going to put $50 on Ravel at 22/1 and $50 on Exhale wherever I can get the best odds.

miraja2 · #11 02-11-2007, 07:25 AM

Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

Dunbar · #12 02-11-2007, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

It closes at 6pm EST today. The Oaks pool stays open longer, 6:30 I think.

About half the money will be bet into the Derby pool today. I'm (wildly) guessing that Notional will close near 20-1.

--Dunbar

declansharbor · #13 02-09-2007, 11:35 AM

Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..

estreetposse · #14 02-09-2007, 11:45 AM

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case

-bt-

randallscott35 · #15 02-09-2007, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case

-bt-

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

lemoncrush · #16 02-09-2007, 11:54 AM

I think the worst bet right now is anyone in the Oaks.
Outside of Dreaming of Anna (who may not even go to the Oaks) there doesn't seem to be any standouts at all.
The fact that neither Octave or Cotton Blossom are showing up in the Davona Dale may be proof that they are as mediocre as they looked last fall.
The fillies out west are all jumbled together, too.
It's just a mess trying to figure out this division.

Cajungator26 · #17 02-09-2007, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

Barbaro wasn't either! He wanted nothing to do with them...

estreetposse · #18 02-09-2007, 12:20 PM

if i had to make a bet:

Circular Quay: 20-1, if this horse makes it to the Derby i don't think there is a chance that he will have this high of odds. The public will not let those connections be that high of a price (unless he throws in some clunkers between now and may)

Forfathers: 80-1, for sh!ts an giggles

-bt-

Dunbar · #19 02-10-2007, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

That's not necessarily true, Randall. If you went into the Derby with those 3 horses at those odds, you would probably have been able to construct a bet on each of the other horses that would have guaranteed you a win no matter which horse won.

That's actually close to my approach to the Derby. I try to pick up futures along the way that will allow me an arbitrage come Derby Day.

Too bad the offshore scene has changed so dramatically from a year ago.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #20 02-10-2007, 12:33 PM

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar