Hwjb's betting diary

[Hwjb]

Neshla does look capable of better now handicapping, she travelled well for a long way over a trip which appeared to stretch her stamina last time. The form of the yard is a plus. Mister Maq would be the one she has to beat for me.

Also at Wolves I'd take Bentley to defy a penalty, as his victory over Jojesse at Southwell last time is probably form to view positively. He does tend to need a strong pace over 5f though.

In the 4.25 Satyricon is one to stay with. He finally confirmed the promise of his debut when barely needing to improve to win at Kempton last weekend. Unpenalised he makes plenty of appeal so long as he's in the same form for his second race back off a break.



I agree that Compton's Eleven looks the pick of the weights and he does go well fresh, so I'm going to throw a few quid at him. Greek Renaissance isn't one to give up on though.
King's Point is another that has been put up by Spotlight, but I agree that he's got a good chance as his last run can safely be ignored.
Quijano appeals as a worthy contender for the Sheema Classic on World Cup night, so I'd expect him to win here.
Have just noticed that Spotlight has also gone for Obe Gold, who won off a 5lb higher mark on his reappearance here last year, and is probably worth having a go at.

Good luck!

[Hwjb]

Kempton:
2:00: New Entic: 2pts win
3:40: Milan Deux Mille 4pts win
4:15: Supreme Stopper, sorry, Copper: 3pts e/w

Wolves:
1:40: Neshla 1pt win
Mister Maq 1pt win
2:10: Fast Heart 2pts win
2:45: Bentley 4pts win
3:50: Almaty Express 2pts win
4:25: Satyricon 5pts win

Nad
3:25: Compton's Eleven 2pts e/w
3:55: Mezel 1pt win
4:40: King's Point 2pts e/w
5:10: Quijano 5pts win
5:40: Illustrious Blue 1pt win
6:40: Obe Gold 2pts e/w

[Hwjb]

Kempton:
2:00: New Entic: 2pts win: 4th of 5 @ 5/2: -2pts: Absolute hound!!
3:40: Milan Deux Mille 4pts win: 1st of 8 @ evs: +4pts: Won despite jumping markedly left
4:15: Supreme Stopper, sorry, Copper: 3pts e/w: 2nd of 14 : 6/1: +1.5pts: Handbreak finally off. Again tanked through race, but didn't find as much as seemed likely and finished tires. Poss breath prob.

Wolves:
1:40: Neshla 1pt win: 7th of 12 @ 15/2: -1pt Massive drifter
Mister Maq 1pt win: 5th of 12 @ 11/1: -1pt
2:10: Fast Heart 2pts win: 2nd of 11 @ 10/11: -2pts
2:45: Bentley 4pts win: 1st of 8 @ 5/4: +5pts
3:50: Almaty Express 2pts win: N/R
4:25: Satyricon 5pts win: N/R

Nad
3:25: Compton's Eleven 2pts e/w: 6th of 12 @ 4/1: -4pts Best ignored.
3:55: Mezel 1pt win: 14th of 15 @ 8/1: -1pt
4:40: King's Point 2pts e/w: 12th of 13 @ 17/2: -4pts: Weakened as if amiss
5:10: Quijano 5pts win: 1st of 11 @ 8/11: +3.64pts
5:40: Illustrious Blue 1pt win: 1st of 10 @ 15/2: +7.5pts
6:40: Obe Gold 2pts e/w: 5th of 12 @ 11/2: -4pts


Day: +2.64pts
Total: +201.43pts

[Hwjb]

Illustrious Blue is a horse I really like, I just wonder how much further improvement he'll find...he's already progressed 2.5 stone since the beginning of lsat season. Whilst he's done well to win this smart event, he probably found himself in a good spot off bottom weight in a race where a number of those behind were below their best/didn't get run of race. Still wouldn't be laying him for the Lincoln though!

A fine performance from Laverock, who didn't really deserved to be pipped by the German horse - although I was glad that he was - and Laverock must now head to the Sheema with excellent claims.

I'm going to stick with Compton's Eleven in the upcoming weeks. He didn't get the clearest of runs, looking to me as if in form, and is lower in the weights than when winning at the Carnival last year. Similar story with Obe Gold, although it was his stablemate Grantley Adams who looked even more unfortunate and is very much one to keep an eye on.

[Hwjb]

Jokestone:

2:10: Back On Line 1pt win
3:10: Kanad 2pts win


Southwell

1:50: Brut 2pts win
Monda 1pt win
Newkeylets 1pt e/w
1,4,5,6,7 0.1pt CTC
3:20: Red Contact 1pt win
3:50: Saviours Spirit 2pts win
Smokin Beau 1pt win
4:20: Shape Up 2pts e/w
4:50 Kings Shillings 3pts win

[Unstable]

I think there are some big priced ones today to be interested in e/w.

Duelling Banjo's in the Novice hurdle looks to be Gary Moore's second string, and on his flat rating might find this difficult, but he will love the ground and liked folkestone when running on the flat. It isn't a hot race and he is a massive price. The other one in the race is Khazar......... maybe i'm reading into it a bit too much but would McCoy reallt get down to 10-7 if this wasn't fancied at all in quite a weak race?

I know Knife Edge is not getting any younger, but to me he is the best bet of the day. He goes well fresh and loves this soft ground and has no stamina issues (if anything, further will suit). The fav is good at this level but has shown limitations on soft and heavy ground before. Knife Edge is my biggest bet for me at 5/2ish

At southwell i really fancy Namroud........ not sure what time it runs but i think he will be a good e/w bet, although out of the weights, he is back down to very much a winable mark and i think he will go close.

[Hwjb]

Carnage last Tuesday which made me ill for the rest of the week!


Jokestone:

2:10: Back On Line 1pt win: Slipped Up @ 5/1: -1pt.
3:10: Kanad 2pts win: 2nd of 10 @ 7/2: -2pts.


Southwell

1:50: Brut 2pts win: 2nd of 14 @ 9/1: -2pts
Monda 1pt win: 7th of 14 @ 9/4: -1pt
Newkeylets 1pt e/w: 3rd of 14 @ 12/1: +2pts
1,4,5,6,7 0.1pt CTC: -6pts
3:20: Red Contact 1pt win: 8th of 9 @ 7/2: -1pt
3:50: Saviours Spirit 2pts win: 2nd of 8 @ 9/2: -2pts
Smokin Beau 1pt win: 7th of 8 @ 25/1: -1pt
4:20: Shape Up 2pts e/w: 7th of 10 @ 12/1: -4pts
4:50 Kings Shillings 3pts win: 6th of 11 @ 13/2: -3pts


Day: -21pts
Total: +180.43pts

[Hwjb]

Market Rasen

2:00 Alternator/Rashartic. 1pt RFC
2:30 Eastern Dagger 2pts win
Nike Walker 1pt win
3:35 Ice Melted 2pts win
4:10 Loulou Nivernais 4pts win

Carlisle

2:10 Cloudless Dawn 4pts win
2:45 Carapuce 1pt e/w
3:15 Bellaney Jewel 3pts win
3:50 Kingsbury 2pts win
Gunadoir 1pt win
4:25 Cloudmor 4pts win

Lingfield

1:50 Milk and Sultana 2pts e/w
2:20 Ruffie 2pts win
Ellesapelle 1pt win
3:25 Challis 2pts win
4:00 Our Kes 4pts e/w
4:35 Just Bond 2pts win

[Unstable]

Greek Renaissance has been well backed all morning, i had a bit on him to place. Still waiting toi get on Compton's Eleven at 5's.

Will have a look at the rest of the wolves card, nothing stuck out for me though, looks very tricky and the surface is likely to ride very slow today, i reckon...... might just catch a few out.

Obe Gold is interesting as you say, but the race looks a complete lottery.

Quijano has got to win if he will have any chance in the sheema classic but not preapred to bet him odds on.

[Unstable]

Satyricon should go close but not drawn to well over the 7furlong start........ might be tricky from that draw.

[Unstable]

Didn't matter in the endwith the wolverhampton card!!!

Gutted today, picked the first winner at Wolves out last night, then today found spotlight had gone for it (hate it when they tip my selection) instead of having a fiver onto win at 10's i limited my bet to 4quid to be placed at 11/4!!!!!

[Unstable]

Oh forgot to mention, as soon as i Illustrious Blue won in Dubai i got on at 16.5 for the Lincoln....... hope he runs in it now!