Can you really make money in this game ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It is kind of funny the whole game that is being played. Annoying but funny.

It's not annoying. He's condescending ( you should see his act on another board ) and takes repeated cheap shots but he actually offers some decent insights into handicapping. I don't agree with some of what he says, but that's fine as there are many ways to go about handicapping, and the only truly disingenuous thing he does is suggesting he knows his ways provide an avenue to success even though HE doesn't trust them enough to actually wager.

He's a student of the game, which is great, and if he would start really betting he could probably improve. People should bet what they can afford, and are comfortable with, and perhaps that is the reason he doesn't really bet. However, to teach yourself to even have a chance to win you have to bet enough to feel the pain of losing, so ( unless you really like losing ) you will then figure out your mistakes and move forward from there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well said as usual. I happen to think he is just completely full of sh*t when it comes to what he bets and how much. Personally I think he's putting in a lot more money than what he says. But I'm a untrusting pessimist anyway so what do I know?

I hope he is betting more as he certainly seems to devote a real amount of time to handicapping.

I find his thoughts about the turf rails a bit interesting ( and perplexing ). Personally I have never paid attention to this, and done well in turf racing, but it's very possible his thoughts have at least some merit. I wonder if anyone else here has any thoughts on turf rail placement and its possible effects on the dynamics of races.

I don't mean to knock people for betting small amounts. I just think it is important to bet at least a reasonable amount if you are going to even attempt to pass yourself off as some kind of expert. The simple fact is you cannot really learn how one might be a successful player unless you invest somewhat seriously. It is important, especially in betting Pick-4s like he claims to bet, to learn how to spend your money in order to maximize your chances of success.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't remember what he was saying about the rails. But if he was saying when the rails are out farther speed carries better I think he is right. but I also heard that years ago. I found during the fall Belmont meet when the rail was way out speed was very good, or at least I thought. I remember hitting a nice Amy Tarrant turf firster that outfinished a chalky Mott horse. made the lead and seemed to carry her speed real well. now was it the rail or did the turf wake her up? Who knows but I think the rail thing might have some validity.

I bet Hopes and Dreams in that race. She won back next out at Calder and did OK in a subsequent Gulfstream race. I believe the Amy Tarrant horse came back to run poorly at Gulfstream. She ran like it was more than any rail placement was helping her that day at Belmont.

I will have to ask some people smarter than me about this. Won't be hard to find them.

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me add that for much of the meet so far the rails have been out at Gulfstream and it wasn't until the turf got really hard that speed was particularly holding and there were a number of very deep closers that won.

To me turf racing is very fair and for the most part pace is not nearly the factor it is in dirt racing. That is the reason sound handicapping holds up better. For me, extensive trip handicapping is the most important thing someone can do to be successful betting turf races.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I agree. Question, with the new turf course at Gulfstream do they ever not have the rail out that far? I can't remember last year.

I thought the Sunshine Millions race was on the inside rail...as was the Canadian. I can't really remember any other days but the rail has been pretty far out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought it was out pretty far for the Canadian because I couldn't tell where the wire was because the rail was out so far.

You are correct...and I was wrong about the Sunshine Millions race also.

Perhaps the rails have always been up. I will try to find out. I guess they will move inside for the second half of the meeting.