ml odds for colonial cup

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Isn't Lewis Michael the horse who barely lost to Sunriver in the Peter Pan? And had done most of his winning on turf? I feel that this form is better than Showing Up's for this contest.

I have to agree 100% Ann. I just dont see Showing Up doing anything in this race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I will bet against him but I suspect he beats up on these horses. I talked to a guy in Ocala that knows some people in NY and most think he is better on the grass than he is on the dirt. One guy said he is "a freak" on the grass.

So you will bet against Showing Up even though you suspect that he will beat up on the horses he is racing against. May I ask why? Is this your regular handicapping/wagering strategy?

I also find this next part fascinating.
You talked to "a guy" who knows "some people" and "most" think he is better on grass and "one guy" said he is a "freak" on the grass. This seems like a rather tenuous link for inside information deemed worthy of posting. I also find it odd that so many people would have such strong opinions about SU on the grass before he even has raced on the grass a single time. How do you earn the title of being a "freak" on the grass with no grass races?

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So you will bet against Showing Up even though you suspect that he will beat up on the horses he is racing against. May I ask why? Is this your regular handicapping/wagering strategy?

I also find this next part fascinating.
You talked to "a guy" who knows "some people" and "most" think he is better on grass and "one guy" said he is a "freak" on the grass. This seems like a rather tenuous link for inside information deemed worthy of posting. I also find it odd that so many people would have such strong opinions about SU on the grass before he even has raced on the grass a single time. How do you earn the title of being a "freak" on the grass with no grass races?

I read the following and called my friend who bred a horse that Tagg now has in his barn and he told me that one of the "guys" at Belmont said he is tremendous on the turf. I plan on betting against him if he is a short price, but only because I question how far he can go. If he were 4-1 I would take a chance he could go the distance, but not at 8-5. My handicapping strategy is based strictly on value.

"He loved it,'' Robin Smullen, assistant to trainer Barclay Tagg said when asked how Showing Up handled the turf. "He just has a completely different stride on the turf than on dirt.''

Smullen said that exercise rider Simon Harris "said the horse doesn't pound the turf, whereas he pounds the dirt. He's got high action on dirt, he doesn't have any high action on turf.''

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Yeah I have heard that as well. But I do not believe it. I prob wont even bet the race, but he will have to show me he is good on grass. I just dont think he is all that special.

I think he is special, up to 8F. After that I just don't like him but he might be able to go the distance. He looked ok in the derby up to 9F and he needed more foundation. He might just be faster than these horses.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I read the following and called my friend who bred a horse that Tagg now has in his barn and he told me that one of the "guys" at Belmont said he is tremendous on the turf. I plan on betting against him if he is a short price, but only because I question how far he can go. If he were 4-1 I would take a chance he could go the distance, but not at 8-5. My handicapping strategy is based strictly on value.

"He loved it,'' Robin Smullen, assistant to trainer Barclay Tagg said when asked how Showing Up handled the turf. "He just has a completely different stride on the turf than on dirt.''

Smullen said that exercise rider Simon Harris "said the horse doesn't pound the turf, whereas he pounds the dirt. He's got high action on dirt, he doesn't have any high action on turf.''

Okay then, I understand better your comments. I guess why do you have the distance question? I thought he looked pretty decent a 10f in the derby.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Screw Showing Up. Maybe he takes to the turf, but odds are he's gonna find traffic breaking from the rail with 13 horses outside of him. In a 14 horse field on the turf, the last thing I'm going to do is take a horse at 9/5 ... 4/1 maybe but no thanks at 9/5 especially when he hasnt ran on the damn surface yet. Maybe everyone's "anoymous buddies" will be right and he is a freak on the grass, but I'll bet against that. I havent capped the race yet, but I like the Pletcher horse, the Live Oak horse, the French connection, and Lewis Michael - he seems to have turned a corner. Not sure if this is a betting race for me or not, but the payoffs should be great!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Screw Showing Up. Maybe he takes to the turf, but odds are he's gonna find traffic breaking from the rail with 13 horses outside of him. In a 14 horse field on the turf, the last thing I'm going to do is take a horse at 9/5 ... 4/1 maybe but no thanks at 9/5 especially when he hasnt ran on the damn surface yet. Maybe everyone's "anoymous buddies" will be right and he is a freak on the grass, but I'll bet against that. I havent capped the race yet, but I like the Pletcher horse, the Live Oak horse, the French connection, and Lewis Michael - he seems to have turned a corner. Not sure if this is a betting race for me or not, but the payoffs should be great!

I agree. I won't begin handicapping in earnest for a couple of days but with the size of the field I'm fully expecting to find some decent value and won't be taking any low odds on this one.

[sumitas]

worth noting that Showing Up's sire, the son of Mr. Prospector, Strategic Mission ran almost all his races on turf. His first 2 were dismal on dirt, then was switched to turf for his next 22 starts... You don't see a son of Mr. Prospector with turf credentials very often but Strategic Mission's are huge.

Showing Up could very well be a monster on the turf. And Strategic Mission could become a huge turf sire.

Originally Posted by sumitas

worth noting that Showing Up's sire, the son of Mr. Prospector, Strategic Mission ran almost all his races on turf. His first 2 were dismal on dirt, then was switched to turf for his next 22 starts... You don't see a son of Mr. Prospector with turf credentials very often but Strategic Mission's are huge.

Showing Up could very well be a monster on the turf. And Strategic Mission could become a huge turf sire.

No horse in this field be below 3-1 odds.

[GPK]

for your viewing pleasure

http://www.drf.com/drfDownloadPastPe...DATE=24&RACE=9

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by sumitas

worth noting that Showing Up's sire, the son of Mr. Prospector, Strategic Mission ran almost all his races on turf. His first 2 were dismal on dirt, then was switched to turf for his next 22 starts... You don't see a son of Mr. Prospector with turf credentials very often but Strategic Mission's are huge.

Showing Up could very well be a monster on the turf. And Strategic Mission could become a huge turf sire.

Strategic Mission was a really good turf horse. I saw him finish second to Altibr when Altibr broke the course record at Keeneland for the mile in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Sadly, Altibr died a couple years ago. I have to go with Showing Up in this one too because of he impressed me in the derby and he should like the turf and I like Tagg horses on the turf.

[sumitas]

such a shame about Altibr. it was minor surgery too. are there any othe Mr Ptospectors that sire turf stars?

[Exceller]

Originally Posted by sumitas

such a shame about Altibr. it was minor surgery too. are there any othe Mr Ptospectors that sire turf stars?

It was a shame. I really liked that horse. Love those mile turf races.

Originally Posted by sumitas

worth noting that Showing Up's sire, the son of Mr. Prospector, Strategic Mission ran almost all his races on turf. His first 2 were dismal on dirt, then was switched to turf for his next 22 starts... You don't see a son of Mr. Prospector with turf credentials very often but Strategic Mission's are huge.

Showing Up could very well be a monster on the turf. And Strategic Mission could become a huge turf sire.

Yes he is the son of Strategic Mission. Strategic Mission actually stands in NY.