The Donn This Saturday

blackthroatedwind · #1 02-03-2007, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What do you feel his actual ability really is??

In the grand scheme of things he's obviously an extremely talented horse but against top competition I think he's severely lacking. He ran a few solid races right after Pletcher took over his training, hardly a surprise, but right now I think the best he could hope for would be dominating lessers as he did last time.

To me he has a very insignificant chance tomorrow and certainly less than his odds.

I also will be surprised if he runs more than three more races in his career.

horseofcourse · #2 02-03-2007, 01:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In the grand scheme of things he's obviously an extremely talented horse but against top competition I think he's severely lacking. He ran a few solid races right after Pletcher took over his training, hardly a surprise, but right now I think the best he could hope for would be dominating lessers as he did last time.

To me he has a very insignificant chance tomorrow and certainly less than his odds.

I also will be surprised if he runs more than three more races in his career.

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field. I can't discount his Queens County figure as his last two races his 3 yr old year he ran 106s which makes the 110 for the qns cty seem very realistic to me, bias or not.

blackthroatedwind · #3 02-03-2007, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field.

I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.

To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.

horseofcourse · #4 02-03-2007, 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I believe he has way more downside than upside and I also don't believe the race sets up to his strengths. Chatain and Strong Contender are both improving horses and even Hesanoldsalt is improving. Magna Graduate is dressed up due to a ridiculous bias aided win and will be way overbet relative to his chances.

To me he is the horse that makes the race betable as the money on him eliminates the takeout.

I dont' see Strong Contender, but his pattern suggests he is due for a good one here and they have been targeting this one. I actually picked Chatain to win, just because Invasor is too easy here. He seems to stand head and shoulders above (Invasor), good horse.

pick4 · #5 02-03-2007, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Beyer wise if you discount his Ack Ack his first race back after 7 months off, his last 4 races average 104...discovery, clark, donn, queens county. No figure for Dubai World Cub but I would assume around 100 or so for that effort. Not that figures mean everything, but looking at the PPs, the only horse clearly better than him in this field is Invasor in my opinion. The rest are very debatable. Accomplishment wise, figure wise he seems to me to clearly be the 2nd best horse in the field. I can't discount his Queens County figure as his last two races his 3 yr old year he ran 106s which makes the 110 for the qns cty seem very realistic to me, bias or not.

He set an uncontested pace in the Queens County. :24 :48 1:12 1:37 through a mile. When a runner can set a pace that he or she is well within ability to handle, they will be able to finish in optimal time.

If you workout and either run outside or on a treadmill ,test yourself at different paces. Try fast early ,then next time go slow early. After running a 7 or 8 minute mile you might be puffing hard. I know I am. If I run a 9 or 10 minute mile I can easily sprint a half mile in 4 minutes. If I run an 8 minute mile, it's much more difficult to maintain that pace.

I think the same thing applys to horses. Easy maintainable rate of speed will result in maximum performance. Faster earlier rates will result in fatigue and deceleration of speed as distance increases.

sumitas · #6 02-03-2007, 04:08 AM

it's a speed bias track so Hesanoldsalt has a shot.

AeWingnut · #7 02-03-2007, 09:00 AM

Invasor looks like a mortal lock
he's a single in the Magna pick 5

Everyone else is running for place money

Tap Dancing Mauk could complete the Superfecta

blackthroatedwind · #8 02-03-2007, 11:53 AM

Strong Contender is scratched.

#9 02-03-2007, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Strong Contender is scratched.

It is a good scratch in my opinion. The horse didnt really have a shot in this race IMO. Tough post, the race doesnt set up for him well. There are other races he could go in that are easier.

Gander · #10 02-03-2007, 11:58 AM

Barcola is at least going to be in front for the majority of the race. Theres nothing wrong with taking a shot with a horse you know is going to be involved and going to be trying. I cant see him winning but you never know.

Those odds were just what I thought the betting public would bet each horse down to (appx). In no way do I think 9/2 is fair for Magna Graduate. I side with those on here who regard him as never being able to run big against the best horses and Invasor should go right by him at will.

I think Invasor wins this at 80%.