The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're underestimating the payoffs.

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

Your right, it might pay about 6/1 or $6 per every $1, the Bern example is skewed because the fields were less

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

It's close. It's a virtual match race.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's close. It's a virtual match race.

ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

[Scav]

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

No-Biz is another horse you can't really unload on in exotics becuase that race means little to him. He already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby, the main goal, and Tagg is going to be progressive with him.....

here I agree with you. while no biz I feel is the better horse and stronger derby contender, tomorrow is not a make or break day. they'll be happy if he just keeps moving forward. can't go all in on him although there aren't many other alternatives beside SD.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

ok now when you say that are you talking about the RACE or the betting on the race?

because I find it to be decidedly one-sided....

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

fair, but i still think it's his race tomorrow. i'll eat crow tomorrow if it comes to that, i don't see either big favorite getting beat, him or invasor

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

oops, i said the same thing. i just took longer to say it. the one turn mile is one of the key elements in SD's favor. NoBiz gets stronger in my view when they get back to real two turn routes.

Scat Daddy has speed that can get the job done on a one turn mile.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

Drums of Thunder took advantage of an extremely contentious pace involving distance challenged weaksters that totally collapsed. He's impossible in this spot. Bold Start is much more likely to fill out the exacta if one of the favorites falters.

Honestly, I don't get Drums of Thunder at all.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

The 8/9/10 pick3 might yield value if you think Naissance is vulverable. The last race is a 3 year old non winner of 1 going a mile an eighth. There are a lot of unknowns in this race.

I think Naissance Royale looks like a strong single but the nature of grass racing allows for teh chance of an upset. The finale is much more projection since they are unproven against winners for the most part and the two turns since most are running it for the first time. The M/L favorite Rutledge Cat looks like a very vulnerable 5/2 favorite.

Roman's Run has 2x experience and has been training very well. High Act has shown speed in his first two and is bred to go long. Torini is an Oxley home bred has been working out at a 7-8 clip since December.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

The 8/9/10 pick3 might yield value if you think Naissance is vulverable. The last race is a 3 year old non winner of 1 going a mile an eighth. There are a lot of unknowns in this race.

I think Naissance Royale looks like a strong single but the nature of grass racing allows for teh chance of an upset. The finale is much more projection since they are unproven against winners for the most part and the two turns since most are running it for the first time. The M/L favorite Rutledge Cat looks like a very vulnerable 5/2 favorite.

Roman's Run has 2x experience and has been training very well. High Act has shown speed in his first two and is bred to go long. Torini is an Oxley home bred has been working out at a 7-8 clip since December.

You might be right 4...I didn't even look at that I might be playing the wrong sequence, instead of playing 2x4x1 15 times, I might play a 4x1x3 10 times and get paid better if I can beat Royale, and I can usually beat ANY HORSE, given optimal FOCUS

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

You might be right 4...I didn't even look at that I might be playing the wrong sequence, instead of playing 2x4x1 15 times, I might play a 4x1x3 10 times and get paid better if I can beat Royale, and I can usually beat ANY HORSE, given optimal FOCUS

I'd put Invasor in somewhere as a saver. If anyone beats Invasor they have to run a career best and hope the HOY is not up to it.

Invasor has to be in my wagers. I don't want to go deep on the pick4 because it could be chalk across. Decisions, decisions, decisions. How does one wager the final four races wisely?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

I'd put Invasor in somewhere as a saver. If anyone beats Invasor they have to run a career best and hope the HOY is not up to it.

Invasor has to be in my wagers. I don't want to go deep on the pick4 because it could be chalk across. Decisions, decisions, decisions. How does one wager the final four races wisely?

I am stubborn, I would rather toss him and hit large then use him, use up funds using him where I could be spreading, when I feel like I feel.

He could very well beat me tomorrow, and if this race were the BC Classic, Invasor would be my single, but I am thinking like an owner here, who ultimately calls the shots. Not saying he doesn't want to win, but I am sure KMc has been told MULTIPLE times how much the DWC means to him, and not to screw Invasor too tight for this race......I really think it is just to get his mind right and focused

[tycharles01]

Its gonna be a easy Pik 3 1 Deep in ALL

Scat Daddy wont come close to winning the Derby however this is a Mile race and he is pretty much a mile to 1/16 horse

Naissance Royale just towers over the field

Invasor is far and away the best Chatain will give a good run to a mile and then die (Guys keep forgetting that he beat Sir Greeley in the mile, if he had to go any farther Sir Greeley would have beat him and this race is 1/8 farther)

Scat/Royale/Invasor

JUST HAMMER IT HARD