The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

You're underestimating the payoffs.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're underestimating the payoffs.

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

Your right, it might pay about 6/1 or $6 per every $1, the Bern example is skewed because the fields were less

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Where, you think that Biz/Roy/Invasor will pay more then 3/1????

Didn't Bern/Henny/Askal pay $2 per $1 this summer?

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

Do you really believe that Nobiz will be the same price as Scat Daddy? Certainly most will cover SD in the multi-race wagers, but as far as the Holy Bull goes...shouldn't Nobiz be a big favorite given all his hype?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The chalk Pick-3 will pay about 3-1 to 7-2 but the ones without a favorite will be better. For instance, NoBiz/Naissance/Strong Contender will be closer to 25-1.

NoBiz is not a huge favorite and will be virtually the identical price as Scat Daddy....especially in the multi races I would guess. It is the classic two horse race. It is virtually impossible to logically come up with anyone else.

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

[tycharles01]

Its gonna be a easy Pik 3 1 Deep in ALL

Scat Daddy wont come close to winning the Derby however this is a Mile race and he is pretty much a mile to 1/16 horse

Naissance Royale just towers over the field

Invasor is far and away the best Chatain will give a good run to a mile and then die (Guys keep forgetting that he beat Sir Greeley in the mile, if he had to go any farther Sir Greeley would have beat him and this race is 1/8 farther)

Scat/Royale/Invasor

JUST HAMMER IT HARD

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

but the point is that i think most of this is moot, because you're relying on the horse of the year -- coming off a win off a huge layoff, losing against a decidedly grade II field, off a layoff again?

i won't be betting tomorrow because i'll be at work, but you can believe that i'd be crafting every single play around invasor tomorrow.

It's sort of two different discussions....opinions on the races versus creating value.

I agree with Scav that if you like Strong Contender you are better off playing the Pick-3 using both NoBiz and Scat Daddy and then some weighted spread in the turf race as he mathematically rates to be a better price in the Pick-3 if for no other reason than the dispersed takeout.