The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him

but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Right, but I can create ten billion to one by leaving nobiz and naissance and invasor off a ticket....i think there will be plenty who single Nobiz, so you're not going to catch wild value by singling him over Invasor -- both will be huge favorites, and those not singling Invasor will be singling Nobiz and vice versa.

So perhaps I'm not estimating tomorrow's wagering correctly, but I'm not sure you create a big advantage by leaving the day's most likely winner off of your ticket.

OK, lets go about it like this, NoBiz/Royale/Invasor will pay 2.50 for every $1 probably in the pick threes.

NoBiz/Royale/SC will probably pay 10 for $1(I consider this on the low end, I should get about $20 per $1 on this I gather given that people are giong to play Chatian/MG in this race also)

NOW, if either Biz or Roy run 2nd, and I catch the winner, that ticket grows to $100 per $1 and possibly $200 per $1, because SO MANY tickets will have them, and not spreading. If you beat Biz or Roy and Invasor still wins, it might pay $5 per $1......

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

[blackthroatedwind]

Strong Contender might be pretty good and is the likeliest horse in this race to challenge Invasor in 2007. His post hurts but he would be the only back up I would use on any tickets.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

I PMed you asking you if I you wanted to have an all day PARTY at Trackside, From Gulfstream to CAL-Expo. NO RESPONSE......