The Donn This Saturday

avance2000 · #1 02-01-2007, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Because we KNOW he is going have such LOW odds that is it really worth picking him to win? Nah, we want to go where the money is.

invasor is an absolute steal at 3/5 against the mules in this race.
betting invasor in this race is worth it for the same reason that picking up free money off the ground is worth it.

Cajungator26 · #2 02-01-2007, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

invasor is an absolute steal at 3/5 against the mules in this race.
betting invasor in this race is worth it for the same reason that picking up free money off the ground is worth it.

I doubt he'll go off at 3/5.

avance2000 · #3 02-01-2007, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I doubt he'll go off at 3/5.

what do you think he'll go off at?

Buffymommy · #4 02-01-2007, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

invasor is an absolute steal at 3/5 against the mules in this race.
betting invasor in this race is worth it for the same reason that picking up free money off the ground is worth it.

Sometimes it is not worth bending over to pick up a penny off the ground.

Danzig · #5 02-01-2007, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Sometimes it is not worth bending over to pick up a penny off the ground.

depends on who's right behind you.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #6 02-01-2007, 02:44 PM

its a nice card, but it could have been alot better with ec in the turf race and pt in the donn. i still like chatain

Buffymommy · #7 02-01-2007, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

depends on who's right behind you.

That is true if Matthew Macfadyen was standing behind me I may do the bend/snap to pick up that penny.

tycharles01 · #8 02-01-2007, 02:48 PM

Its not betting against Invasor it finding out the 2,3,4th place horses

No one who has any knowledge is gonna put WIN bets on him at 3/5 however a ton of people will have him as top or 2nd in tris and supers

So remember

#1, key with???

Danzig · #9 02-01-2007, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Its not betting against Invasor it finding out the 2,3,4th place horses

No one who has any knowledge is gonna put WIN bets on him at 3/5 however a ton of people will have him as top or 2nd in tris and supers

So remember

#1, key with???

yeah, the trick is hitting the ex and tri--but if invasor wins, they won't pay much either.

Cajungator26 · #10 02-01-2007, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

yeah, the trick is hitting the ex and tri--but if invasor wins, they won't pay much either.

Obviously I think that Invasor is the clear winner here, but there's a chance he may not like the track, etc and if that is the case, there could be some money to be made.

avance2000 · #11 02-01-2007, 02:47 PM

so let's say invasor is 2/5 or even 1/5 and some horse like AP Arrow is 15/1. ap arrow is still not a good bet. this horse has never won a graded stakes race. are the odds really only 15/1 that he will win the race. NO!!!!! it would take an act of god for him to win.
i'm all for finding a good horse at a price....but there are times (like this) when the entire field is so overmatched by one horse that it doesn't even make sense to look for value. there isn't any.

Buffymommy · #12 02-01-2007, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

so let's say invasor is 2/5 or even 1/5 and some horse like AP Arrow is 15/1. ap arrow is still not a good bet. this horse has never won a graded stakes race. are the odds really only 15/1 that he will win the race. NO!!!!! it would take an act of god for him to win.
i'm all for finding a good horse at a price....but there are times (like this) when the entire field is so overmatched that it doesn't even make sense to look for value. there isn't any.

oh come on he will be like 1/9 or worse. We are talking about the HOY last year who is only four techically.

avance2000 · #13 02-01-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

We are talking about the HOY last year who is only four techically.

exactly! so why do you like hesanoldsalt in this spot?

Buffymommy · #14 02-01-2007, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

exactly! so why do you like hesanoldsalt in this spot?

He's a Broad Brush baby who getting better at four.

Hee hee. Just going for the money.

lemoncrush · #15 02-01-2007, 03:21 PM

I'm fully aware of the Invasor prep for Dubai angle, but we're talking about a horse who is 9/10 lifetime, and should be able to jog home beating this weak field.
Chatain looks nice, but with 4 lifetime starts, I really doubt he'll be able to shake free of Invasor.
And it is a terrible betting race, but who is going to complain about a single in the pick 4, or the Magna 5?

Not me.

GenuineRisk · #16 02-02-2007, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

depends on who's right behind you.

Preferably...

tycharles01 · #17 02-02-2007, 11:15 AM

What happens if it rains down there?? Any good off track runners on the card

Cajungator26 · #18 02-02-2007, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

What happens if it rains down there?? Any good off track runners on the card

It's looking like it might... we had tornadoes here in the Central FL area all night. It was awful... people dead and homes destroyed.

tycharles01 · #19 02-02-2007, 11:17 AM

Ya i am watching it now, lucky this week tho I was up that way last weekend