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#1
02-01-2007, 02:59 PM
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Let me take a shot at a ML...
1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5 2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1 3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1 4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1 5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1 6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1 7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2 8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1 9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2 
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#2
02-01-2007, 03:01 PM
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On second thought, I like A. P. Arrow here too. I need to look at this stuff when I get home. I wish I was going to be down there this weekend.
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#4
02-01-2007, 03:05 PM
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Invasor should be carrying more than 123lbs and the spread of weights should be greater than they are
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#5
02-01-2007, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
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#6
02-01-2007, 03:14 PM
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AP Arrow? He stinks. He's never run a good race in his life.
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#8
02-01-2007, 03:17 PM
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OK, but when my 20-1 shot comes in don't say I didn't tell you so....
__________________
"Until one has loved an animal, part of their soul remains unawaken. 
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#9
02-01-2007, 03:16 PM
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I'll take my chances.  Lori, I can't make it down, unfortunately... I have my son this weekend. Last weekend was his Dad's weekend to have him, so it worked out.
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#10
02-01-2007, 04:08 PM
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#11
02-01-2007, 04:16 PM
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Quote:
 Maybe I'll get lucky and you guys will call me to let me know how the horses look? 
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#12
02-01-2007, 03:16 PM
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A few nice races down there on Sat.
A 5 horse sprint race with 5 pretty decent horses in it Holy Bull gets Scat daddy Sam P Nobiz Drums of Thunder Bold Start Forefathers in the Swale
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#13
02-01-2007, 03:17 PM
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Quote:
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#14
02-03-2007, 12:12 AM
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Magna Graduate had it his own way in his last start. He was able to set uncontested splits of :24 :48 1:12 1:37 1:55.
That was a pace which was well within his range. It might not be the same way this time. While he is not a need the lead runner, he's going to run close to the pace which will be much faster than his last race. In the DOnn he'll have the reigning HOF not far behind stalking as well as Strong Contender. This race looks like Invasor will win. But Strong Contender has shown flashes of talent. If you believe trainer talk, John Ward said prior to his last race that he was not ready and would need the race ( http://www.drf.com/news/article/81662.html ) . I think there's a single in the prior race so I will add another horse to my pick3 and pick4 tickets. I'm leaning towards Strong Contender right now as my upset possibility. This could change in the next 17 hours.
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#15
02-01-2007, 03:29 PM
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__________________
the great avance has spoken.
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#16
02-03-2007, 10:59 AM
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Here's my preliminary fair odds line: PP# Horse Fair odds 1 Invasor 1-1 2 Halos Sailing Sain 60 3 AP Arrow 15 4 Chatain 10 5 Tap Dancing Mauk 125 6 Hesanoldsalt 12 7 Magna Grad 15 8 Barcola 15 9 Strong contender 10 IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against. Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1? --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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