kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

[Gander]

I think Rock Lobster runs real well in here. Not sure if he has ever run at Colonial but that shouldnt matter, most of these probably havent, especially the real contenders. I saw this horse's last race on KY Derby Day and I was very impressed.

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Rock Lobster runs real well in here. Not sure if he has ever run at Colonial but that shouldnt matter, most of these probably havent, especially the real contenders. I saw this horse's last race on KY Derby Day and I was very impressed.

He was slower than molasses tim taht day. he earned a nothing fig, and the trainer is ice cold going 4-40 so far this year. No way, no how.

Originally Posted by oracle80

He was slower than molasses tim taht day. he earned a nothing fig, and the trainer is ice cold going 4-40 so far this year. No way, no how.

Sure, no chance. Just like the $180 horse in a Grade I at Churchill.

[Gander]

Its a horse race anything can happen. Rock Lobster is not out of this by any means. Showing Up is a nice horse but never been on the weeds. Frenchys Cat, Kip de ville and Go Between are hardly world beaters.

Originally Posted by Gander

Its a horse race anything can happen. Rock Lobster is not out of this by any means. Showing Up is a nice horse but never been on the weeds. Frenchys Cat, Kip de ville and Go Between are hardly world beaters.

I love Showing Up but any horse can win this race. They are all either untested on the grass or just not that impressive on the grass. My reasoning is that Showing Up would win this race against this field 1 out of every 2-3 times it is run, so I think 2-1 or better is a good bet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Sure, no chance. Just like the $180 horse in a Grade I at Churchill.

I'm confused. Are you suggesting because Seek Gold upset the Foster that Rock Lobster can win the race Saturday?

Don't get me wrong, I have only begun looking at the pps for Saturday's race, and there is no doubt that Rock Lobster is an outsider. However, I will look a lot harder before throwing him out. Mike is right about one thing....he will have to improve a LOT to be competitive here.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused. Are you suggesting because Seek Gold upset the Foster that Rock Lobster can win the race Saturday?

Don't get me wrong, I have only begun looking at the pps for Saturday's race, and there is no doubt that Rock Lobster is an outsider. However, I will look a lot harder before throwing him out. Mike is right about one thing....he will have to improve a LOT to be competitive here.

I am suggesting that if a 90-1 shot can win a grade 1 against some of the top horses in the world, a horse like Rock Lobster could beat a field of unprove or unimpressive three year olds on the grass. Rock Lobster wouldn't be nearly as big a shock as Seek Gold.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused. Are you suggesting because Seek Gold upset the Foster that Rock Lobster can win the race Saturday?

Don't get me wrong, I have only begun looking at the pps for Saturday's race, and there is no doubt that Rock Lobster is an outsider. However, I will look a lot harder before throwing him out. Mike is right about one thing....he will have to improve a LOT to be competitive here.

Yeah I mean other than the fact that hes slow, stepping way up, and the trainer is ice cold, I see a whole lot I like about him!!! Oh, and did I mention that since so many people love to bet closers who finish like he did last time because they mistake a slow last part of the race that a horse clunked into to(confusing that close with talent) and that the trainer is 4-40 but still gets overbet off a race he won 8 years ago that he will be no value either/ gee thats just what I have been looking for!!!!!!!!!! A slow horse stepping up in class who will be overbet and is trained by a cold trainer. Sounds good to me!!!!

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah I mean other than the fact that hes slow, stepping way up, and the trainer is ice cold, I see a whole lot I like about him!!! Oh, and did I mention that since so many people love to bet closers who finish like he did last time because they mistake a slow last part of the race that a horse clunked into to(confusing that close with talent) and that the trainer is 4-40 but still gets overbet off a race he won 8 years ago that he will be no value either/ gee thats just what I have been looking for!!!!!!!!!! A slow horse stepping up in class who will be overbet and is trained by a cold trainer. Sounds good to me!!!!

I just read who is trainer is. Now I see why you don't like him. Let me guess, you like Dutrows horse.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I just read who is trainer is. Now I see why you don't like him. Let me guess, you like Dutrows horse.

Are you disputing my statistics? Wanna make a wager on that?

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, I am not inclined to like Rock Lobster, but the second horse in his last race did come back with a big win. And, honestly, there aren't any proven killers in this field. It's not like Stream Cat and Go Between are monsters, Showing Up is both distance challenged and a major if on the turf, Outperformance had a very good trip in a race that collapsed last out, Roman Dynesty is a guess ( albeit an educated one ), Lewis Michael is another turf unknown ( though I would take him at his odds over Showing Up at his ridiculously deflated odds ). However, all those horses are more likely to win than Rock Lobster, along with Can't Beat It, who may be the best longshot in the race ( though Eddie Castro doesn't help ).

The problem with a horse like Rock Lobster is that not only does he have to improve substantially, but a whole slew of horses also have to fail to show up. The odds of both of those things happening are far greater than his odds will reflect.

Maybe we should key him in the fourth slot in the super.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, I am not inclined to like Rock Lobster, but the second horse in his last race did come back with a big win. And, honestly, there aren't any proven killers in this field. It's not like Stream Cat and Go Between are monsters, Showing Up is both distance challenged and a major if on the turf, Outperformance had a very good trip in a race that collapsed last out, Roman Dynesty is a guess ( albeit an educated one ), Lewis Michael is another turf unknown ( though I would take him at his odds over Showing Up at his ridiculously deflated odds ). However, all those horses are more likely to win than Rock Lobster, along with Can't Beat It, who may be the best longshot in the race ( though Eddie Castro doesn't help ).

The problem with a horse like Rock Lobster is that not only does he have to improve substantially, but a whole slew of horses also have to fail to show up. The odds of both of those things happening are far greater than his odds will reflect.

Maybe we should key him in the fourth slot in the super.

Lewis Michael is far from being an unknown on the turf, he was like 5 or 6 lengths back from the monster Barbaro, and that was only his 3rd or 4th race....

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Rock Lobster runs real well in here. Not sure if he has ever run at Colonial but that shouldnt matter, most of these probably havent, especially the real contenders. I saw this horse's last race on KY Derby Day and I was very impressed.

No Chance. Didn't you read what Oracle said. I know somebody that thinks he could run a big race too. It wouldn't shock me if he got a piece of it.