Revisiting SNS - Saturday

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i have it sns /silver waggon...prado would not take unless he didnt think he could contend/arminian summer / dry martini..and my bomb get funky,,

[SentToStud]

I believe the following is true....

At 9 Furlongs at Gulfstream during this meet and the prior two meets, only one horse has won from the 10 post or further out... Barbaro in the FL Derby last year.

SNS has got his work cut out for him. Can't fault anyone playing against him tomorrow at a short number.

[Cajungator26]

Silver Wagon...

I think the post might be too much for SNS.

[JJP]

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

[Scav]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

I'm a big SNS fan, but I can think of better things to do with 2K then to place it on the nose of a horse that drew so poorly.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

Going 4 wide into the first turn would not be a shock to me. And if that's the case, its going to be very difficult to win. Silver Wagon may be lower than 4-1; 7-2ish probably.

[Gander]

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

I hope SNS wins for the simple reason that the Donn is looking like it has the potential for a big field and I'd hate to see Invasor or Premium Tap draw outside and scratch citing SNS's defeat as proof that you can't overcome an outside post at Gulfstream.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Gander

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

Great post. SNS backers have a built in excuse in Dominguez this time. If he loses, I'm sure RD will take a beating, despite the bad post. If he wins, his horse was the best on paper, so he'll get no props. To all you bashers, here's your perfect chance for a 'bet against'...RD on a great horse with a terrible post and a decent field!!! Make sure you take advantage of it...no whining on Saturday night...

[JJP]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....30-1 seemed right about spot on. Summer Book looked a little underbet to me (and I got ripped to pieces before the race by one of the Chicago guys for saying that...who incidentally loved Get Funky). Summer Book had at least run competitive numbers twice last years...he just never got there.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....

The fact that he had in the past, albeit a year ago, was more than several of the others in that race could say. And he was in good form, off two wins so it was not impossible that he could move forward again back to the big fig from a year ago. Just what has Summer Book ever done around two turns? There also was no true definitive speed in the race, and MM figured to be close to the pace.

I'd like to say I cashed big but the F/M turf race blew up my P3 and P4 tickets.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

The fact that he had in the past, albeit a year ago, was more than several of the others in that race could say. And he was in good form, off two wins so it was not impossible that he could move forward again back to the big fig from a year ago. Just what has Summer Book ever done around two turns? There also was no true definitive speed in the race, and MM figured to be close to the pace.

As far as his two-turn races (just talking numbers here, which are not the end-all of the conversation, but a good starting point), he ran two "0" numbers on TG in the last year, both around two turns (one was the NJC Handicap at Hawthorne, I know off the top of my head). Those two numbers put him ahead of every horse in the race but SNS, Papi Chullo, and Silver Wagon (if you count his sprint races) in the last year. As far as the pure numbers that on paper would have been necessary to win that race, his best was right on target with the other runners in the race, and McCann's Mojave was simply not fast enough on paper to compete against this crew and distance at this time.

The horse ran a heck of a race, not taking that away from him, but after sitting at Gulfstream and arguing for the 40 minutes leading up to the race that Summer Book was a legit contender with anyone who would listen, it was nice to see him run back to one of his better races. I thought he was a much more legit contender than Mccann's Mojave and a more legit contender than 3/4 of the field actually. His better two-turn numbers were several lengths better than Silver Wagon's, and his price was nearly 15x as large....that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.