Sunday 1/21 GP Bias

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by JJP

Initially I didn't think it was but looking over the charts, the rail definitely wasn't the place to be. A 2-5 shot has a rail trip and gets run down by a 35-1 shot who's wide. I have the replays on tape and will re-check but according to the charts, its an outside track.

Friday was a day that I thought there was truly a dead rail. We've seen neutral tracks for most of the meet but the occasional bias day makes for some good betbacks/bet-againsts in the future.

I do not believe either of those days were dead rails and reading charts and making definitive decisions on rails is more than very dangerous.

The 35-1 shot you mention was a first-time starter and the 2-5 ran a little too well for my taste for any horse that was on a dead rail. That horse was a layoff dropdown for Pletcher and my guess is he did NOT underperform. How far back was it to the third horse?

To me there is no definitive evidence of any dead rails at that meet though perhaps January 7th was a bit of an outside track but even that is inconclusive.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do not believe either of those days were dead rails and reading charts and making definitive decisions on rails is more than very dangerous.

I would agree with that. I'm still undecided on Sunday, although I'd lean to calling it a mild outside bias. I do believe that Friday was a legit outside bias. Let's take a look at the card:

1st- won by a wide closer as the 9-5 fave could only manage 3rd w/a rail trip.
4th- 2-1 favorite Shake the Earth ran 5th w/a rail trip while wide closing Fappianos Clown won the race.
6th- 4-5 Flashy N Bold was yet another favorite who gravitated to the rail only to get run down by wide closing As Himself.
7th- Truman's Gold, despite an widish draw, got to the rail midway thru the turn and for the stretch run and burned more chalkeaters money as wide Gold Attraction got up.

I realize a speed on the rail horse did win the finale but that was maiden claimers and those types of races are loaded w/faint hearted types who won't pass horses.

We'll have to track these Jan 19 runners when they come back for further evidence but IMO that day was the least neutral of any day of the meet so far.

[blackthroatedwind]

My problem is, as you pointed out, there was an inside wire job. I just don't believe that's possible if the rail is off.

On the other hand, it could have been an outside flow type track, and I will try and get a chance to review it over the weekend.

[JJP]

Still too early to definitely say but Quality Affair definitely was able to carry her speed further today after a speed on the rail trip Jan. 21.

6th Race

Next Post 4:22 Off: 3:53 | 6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds | Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $38,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
14 Quality Affair Guidry M 121 12.40 6.40 4.60 ( LAST RACE 1/21 RACE 6 - had the #1 post that day )
3 Siberian Rose Bejarano R 121 6.20 3.80
9 Perfectly Natural Castellano J J 121 7.60

Times in 5ths: :221 :444 :571 1:102

Times in 100ths: :22.24 :44.91 :57.35 1:10.46

Scratched: Lady Marlboro and Lucky Alizea

Also ran: Dattts Our Girl, Peerless, Unenchantedevening, With Every Thought, Miss Tizzy, Africa Mia, Eight Days Apart, Just Special and Can't Bluff Mulvey

Winning Trainer: Jerkens H Allen - Owner: Cowan, Marge and Irving M.

$1 Exacta (14-3) Paid $52.90

$1 Trifecta (14-3-9) Paid $565.40

$1 Superfecta (14-3-9-11) Paid $12,863.40

$2 Daily Double (5-14) Paid $32.00 Daily Double Pool $33,396

$1 Pick 3 (1-5-14) 3 Correct Paid $103.80 Pick 3 Pool $62,302

[johnny pinwheel]

i usually only play aqueduct/gulfstream both tracks have been speed favoring. aqueduct has not even been fair with a vast majority of "WIRE JOBS". the only time theres a closer is when jockeys get suicidal knowing the front is so good. i agree a few paths off the rail is great at gulfstream, winners have been a little wide in the stretch. i love betting against these layoff horses they chalk up at gulfstream. onough macool 1-1, and dreamin of ana 3-5 at 6 and 1/2 furlongs going 44 and change, i love how the public listens to the "experts", these are horses not heros!