CONTEST/SYMPOSIUM: SA Carryover

[Sightseek]

Neat idea! I'm pretty much clueless, but I'll try at least.

[skippy3481]

sightseek we can team up surely our limited knowledge will allow us to hit like at least 1 race

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

sightseek we can team up surely our limited knowledge will allow us to hit like at least 1 race

The multi-ticket thing is what confuses me, but I wouldn't even know how to word a question on it. Philski explained and showed his ticket once on a forum I used to post more on and I still have nightmares about all of the numbers. The scary thing is I do a lot with numbers in my daily job.

[blackthroatedwind]

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

Thanks for the further explaination.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

My main confusion when trying to structure tickets like this is which horses to put in the B and C category. For instance, what category would you put these following examples in:

Horse 1 - First time turf starter that doesn't look particularly good unless he improves on the turf but has Prado aboard.

Horse 2 - 25/1 shot that you think is a huge overlay at those odds.

Horse 3 - 3/1 shot that you don't like at all.

Is 1 an example of what sort of horse you want on your C ticket or should that be a B? Do you play 3 on your C ticket or not at all?

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, a lot of it depends on how much money you are willing to invest. From there you figure out the cost difference in each race for elevating a horse from one list to another.

One thing to keep in mind is " value ". How much money does it make financial sense, from a value standpoint, to invest in a sequence that involves two 25-1 shots? For instance, suppose ( to keep it simple ), you were going to have a 25-1 shot as an A in both the first and second leg. Thus you would have a huge number of tickets generated off those two horses. Well, a $2 parlay on those two horses pays $1300. Can you honestly justify having even $48 worth of play off that combo? How about $128? There is something to be said for never including a Pick-6 combination where the parlay is over the total pool. Now, obviously things change in substantial carryovers, and the bigger your ticket the greater your scope, but there are a great deal of questions one needs to ask themself when seriously constructing tickets. Your ability to understand the answers to these things will ultimately simplify the decisions about which list to place horses on.

To repeat something I just said to Sightseek, Picking winners, or surviving races through selections is not that hard, but finding a way to get all the winners on one ticket is the hard part.

[AeWingnut]

heard that someone invested $20k in a pick 6 and got back $18k and they were lucky to get back the $18k cause there were a lot of favorites.

As a rule I don't play a pick 6 unless I can find three singles. sadly I have never been able to find three singles

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

Andy, it's probably beating an old issue, but can you elaborate on HOW this works a little bit more. It's one of the things that has confused the hell out of me for the past few year. No matter how many times I look at how someone structures a ticket in this way (multiple tickets), I guess I just haven't grasped the logic or the mechanics of it.

Maybe I still won't get it, but you're doing a generally good job explaining other things, so I thought I'd see if you could take a few minutes and try to lay out, say a pick-3 ticket using that formula just to try to knock it into my head.

Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me get back to you later.

For now, look at it this way, you have three potential groups in each race, must uses ( A ), secondary uses ( B ), and throw ins ( C ).

Your play will win if one of two overall events occur.....either every race is won by a " must use " or a " secondary use " ( this is you AB / AB / AB / AB / AB / AB ticket ) OR any FIVE " must use " horses and ONE " throw in " horse wins.

In other words, you are adding an option of being very right in five races and mildly right in another, and still winning.

I know this is quick and dirty but I don't have a lot of time. So, for purposes of just throwing my hat into the contest (because I don't know if I'll be able to log on anymore the next few days), here are my picks. You guys can break it up, have fun with it, crush it, spit on it, but maybe when I come back to this thread I will learn something from it.

With little or no rationale...

3-7-10-11 / 6 / 13-7-6-4-1 /7 / 7-1-8 / 7-11-16-6

race 3
probably like blazen bunny the most second race off the claim, improving and dropping in class. cat did it doesn't have it for the stretch, I think she'll get beat again late. maybe they're thinking no blinkers will give her more awareness, but I'm taking others with the outside pp.

race 4
I think the stars align for Red Opal. She has shown ability when she's fresh. She gets the best jockey and obviously a good barn right now. She's seen the course before. No value, but I think the winner.

race 5
big field, take your pick...honestly I'm just trying to cover a few. Charlos, Peace Accord and El Gato Famoso have the best shot in my view. Charlos looks like he got shuffled back last time but was making some ground late going 5.5f. He showed some grit in his first start and Court stays on him.

race 6
single Antifreezette. Looks the fastest yesterday, today and tomorrow. Some trouble on the trip last time, but hopefully not this time. Good form coming in, as far as I know. Will the track kill him?

race 7
Movie Star, Singalong, Ballado's Thunder. BT is 2 for 3 at the distance and gets Gomez. What does that guy know??

race 8
I like Rapid Silver the best, but he's in pp 16. BUT, he was in 13 last time and almost got the job done at 7f. Looks to be improving and since they have the whole stretch to get in a good spot, I'll give him a spot on my ticket. I can't pass up Highly Gallant, but I probably should. I question how ready he is to run off the 6 month layoff. He's one of those that looks like he could use a race, to use the cliche'. And then, Phantom Gray who comes back off of a route with a trainer who wins 39% route to sprint...But, if I were feeling brave, I would probably take Highly Gallant out and put in Closet Trader, the 6, who keeps MC Baze and showed a good late effort in his last at this level.