A Bit About Track Bias (Dirt)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

The thing that was the best about Friendly Island (not to rehash the bias thing, cuz it's pretty beat to death) was how Eric Wing posted about loving Friendly Island on about three different occasions on the ntra.com homepage in the month leading to the BC. He laid out a really compelling (for lack of a better word) argument about why Friendly Island was going to be a HUGE overlay bomber in that race, based on his performances.

I didn't believe it, because obviously the horse was having a hard time getting a win anywhere, but I can't say that the man was talking like a crazy person either beforehand. Usually when people get lucky on something like that, i think of it just that way -- lucky. But Wing had been so adamant and so logical in laying it out, that I wasn't totally shocked that the horse ran a big one.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The thing that was the best about Friendly Island (not to rehash the bias thing, cuz it's pretty beat to death) was how Eric Wing posted about loving Friendly Island on about three different occasions on the ntra.com homepage in the month leading to the BC. He laid out a really compelling (for lack of a better word) argument about why Friendly Island was going to be a HUGE overlay bomber in that race, based on his performances.

I didn't believe it, because obviously the horse was having a hard time getting a win anywhere, but I can't say that the man was talking like a crazy person either beforehand. Usually when people get lucky on something like that, i think of it just that way -- lucky. But Wing had been so adamant and so logical in laying it out, that I wasn't totally shocked that the horse ran a big one.

This weekend is the Friendly Island moment you've been waiting for....he is catching a light field in the G2 Palos Verdes.

Hey Dahoss: From a personal standpoint I generally do not research any card until one of the participants shows up in the pick 4 that I am playing. With that said the Breeders cup is a big day and I did a litlle bit of pre/post race study. My only bet aside from a modest late pick four was Street Sense and posted that he would maul his field at some five or six to one!

I bet my own tickets but entertain just about every opinion I can find. In the days after the cup, I distinctly recall Ragozin posting that there was NO INDICATION of "bias". He used caps! And Butch Lehr saying the track was perfect. He personally grades the track every day. TGJB, many bloggers I respect, and from memory Cannon Shell this forum indicated the track was "normal" or the same it normally is. Stick to your guns if you have a differing opinion.

Eurobounce: The turf rail is an extraordinary bias in itself but courses drain differently and the track super can't do much more than water the lawn and replace the divots. The bias is greater than that on dirt! Do you play golf?

Black throat: I am perplexed at your incredulity of my earnings and amounts bet. I suspect, you would have been deeply disturbed if I took down the entire late FG pick 4pool ($39K) this past Sunday on a $36 investment... I almost did!

Et Al. Thanks. All successful handicappers have paid their dues. Take one step at a time. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Black throat: I am perplexed at your incredulity of my earnings and amounts bet. I suspect, you would have been deeply disturbed if I took down the entire late FG pick 4pool ($39K) this past Sunday on a $36 investment... I almost did!

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

[westcoastinvader]

There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.[/quote]

I do LOVE this sport.

"A paucity of posts popping out of nowhere to publicize...."

Great alliteration, plus bonus points for "paucity!"

Horseplayers are an underrated group!

Just for clarification, I know Bellsbendboy from nowhere, and I have a "tad" more than a paucity of posts around these horse boards over the last few years.

I give no credence to his claims, but I do know that self proclaimed smart horseplayers can minimize damage, and often make a few bucks, without major investment over the year.

I love horse racing, but I do not have the time to make it a wagering habit of more than four or five times a month.....at most. But, when I decide to wager, I'll check out the card pretty thoroughly with the easy information available.

When I lived in Miami years ago, I followed every race....every day.....and did well when I wagered.

Here in California, I follow racing in general. And when I'm ready to bet I'll go a little deeper in recent research. But not too deep. This is FUN for me. Not a job!

It's always a cool feeling when my wife sheepishly tells our accountant that her husband has "gambling winnings" to claim.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

Are you implying that I will soon be getting unsolicited PMs from BBB guaranteeing winnings at the track with a sure-fire pick-4 system? I must admit that although I am often as hard-bitten and cynical as they come regarding human motivations, this possibility had not occurred to me. My hat is off to you BTW -- you are even more mistrustful (or perhaps I should just say cautious) than me. It's good to know you got my back.

That being said, I don't believe that BBB has an agenda, at least not one involving a scam. He doggedly responds with unearthly calm to pointed (although often very funny) ripostes, which sometimes seem entirely designed for the sole purpose of mocking him. No scam artist would have the patience.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Are you implying that I will soon be getting unsolicited PMs from BBB guaranteeing winnings at the track with a sure-fire pick-4 system? I must admit that although I am often as hard-bitten and cynical as they come regarding human motivations, this possibility had not occurred to me. My hat is off to you BTW -- you are even more mistrustful (or perhaps I should just say cautious) than me. It's good to know you got my back.

That being said, I don't believe that BBB has an agenda, at least not one involving a scam. He doggedly responds with unearthly calm to pointed (although often very funny) ripostes, which sometimes seem entirely designed for the sole purpose of mocking him. No scam artist would have the patience.

Actually I believe the poster who tells serious horseplayers, and there are some here, that he made almost $20 for every $1 bet in 2006 is actually mocking us.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually I believe the poster who tells serious horseplayers, and there are some here, that he made almost $20 for every $1 bet in 2006 is actually mocking us.

Actually, I think BBB made that statement on a thread I started about what it takes to make a living gambling on horses. When you crunch the numbers, as many have done following BBB's statement, it does seem outlandish, but I don't feel mocked, especially (and I do consider myself a serious, albeit amateur, horseplayer).

Wait a second, are you mocking me for making a mocking comment about mocking comments?

Da Hoss I wrote an essay a few days before the Breeders Cup essentially saying that Butch would have a hard time keeping the rail from being the place to be, but could not locate it as it was under someone elses thread. With that said, I do not think the percieved rail bias was anything more than; it is always good to save ground. Ragozin has an excellent assessment on his bulletin board.

BTR I do have an agenda. I post my pick 4's with the idea of getting newer cappers interested in "investing" $20 -$30 a week with the goal of hitting a pick 4 paying fifty, sixty or even one hundred times their bet! Additionally I try to learn all I can. Even though I am in the top 1 or 2% in handicapping acumen (as are a few others, this forum) I am shocked at what I do not know! Some swindle!

You wrote "that one thing I know for sure is that no one can play a miniscule ticket once a week and be a consistent winner" indicates to me that YOU cannot be a consistent winner. Several members this forum play a pick 4 once a week and over the long haul win. I have asked them to keep their ROI for just those bets.

I am not into country club camraderie and try not to post unless I have something to say, or a ticket to post. I usually post my Sunday ticket on the forum where the race is being run, sorry if that disturbs you. In the interest of full disclosure I expect if I get time, I will post a ticket here tommorrow, and like my chances. I have played three pick 4's in 2007; a $12 bet that returned $1900, a $24 miss and a $36 miss. They are at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate #'s 7629 and 7659 and this forum #8700 I have never seen a before the race prediction from you and can only conclude you are a monday morning quarterback.

STS: I buy charts in bulk and find most handicappers have the same data! I am finding good value in Beyer par times taken from the past performances. For instance most winners run a good number for the class... but of the horses they beat, how many had run par? How recently? etc.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This is usually after he has thrown in a shot or two of his own. Guy came on here and starting throwing haymakers at some of the nicer people on here mocking their selections. Then after the fact plays dumb like he didn't know what he was doing. It's all too convenient. I truly hope his boasts are real, there is enough money out there to go around. But come on, there does seem to be a great deal of BS going around.

Okay. I guess I missed where he took shots at others' picks. I shall review. Also, didn't mean to imply that you don't sometimes need high boots to wade through some of the claims that are made, just don't think BBB is trying to sell a scam. If boasting it is, there are a lot more pedestrian reasons for doing so.

[kenny p]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

I just got home from working all night. Illuscidate and paucity. BTW, you made my morning. Thank you. By the way what does illuscidate mean? KP

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kenny p

I just got home from working all night. Illuscidate and paucity. BTW, you made my morning. Thank you. By the way what does illuscidate mean? KP

It could be a new word. Or, I could have spelled it correctly.....


elucidate.