BC Stunner: 2 days, 3 new races..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Do people really think they would have run Ghostzapper in a $1 million BC Dirt Mile instead of the $6 million BC Classic? I sure as hell don't.

Absolutely he would have. He had won the 6.5 furlong Vosburgh by 6 1/2 lengths, in last-to-first fashion, in the supersonic final time of 1:14 3/5ths. In the words of Tom Durkin after the wire that day: "Just 1/5th off the track record in the 66th Vosburgh Stakes.....Ghostzapper...a sprinting force!" Instead of passing the BC Sprint...Frankel would have run him in the BC Dirt Mile after the Vosburgh. Which, he would have won.
Ghostzapper was a half sibling to confirmed sprinter City Zip...and Frankel waited until August of his 4-year-old season to stretch him out. Here are some quotes.

Before his 4yo debut in the 7 furlong Tom Fool "Trainer Bobby Frankel opted to skip the Breeders' Cup Sprint because he believed Ghostzapper's closing style would work against him at Santa Anita."

After his 4yo debut win in the Tom Fool "Frankel, who won the Tom Fool last year with Aldebaran, said Ghostzapper would be pointed to the $200,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga on Aug. 14 as a prep for the Grade 1 Forego on Sept. 4, also at Saratoga. Frankel said he is inclined to try and stretch out Ghostzapper here in the fall.

"With the speed he showed [Sunday], going long you might be able to sit there with him and turn him loose in the stretch," Frankel said. "Everybody wants to pigeonhole him as a sprinter; we don't know. He's an easy horse to rate."

Here is what was published in the DRF on why Frankel pulled out of the SIX FURLONG Vanderbilt Stakes. "Instead, Frankel will now point Ghostzapper to the Grade 3, $200,000 Philip Iselin Handicap at Monmouth Park on Aug. 21.

Frankel wouldn't come out and say it, but part of what went into his decision is his dissatisfaction with the weight assignments for the race. Ghostzapper was assigned 122 pounds, compared with 120 for Speightstown."

How can you be so sure that Ghostzapper would have run in the Classic, as a 4-year-old, if they had a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. While the purse of the Classic is much greater---a Breeders Cup win, at the important commercial stallion distance of a mile on dirt, isn't exacly something to scoff at. Most Breeders Cup Classic meant horses, aren't looking to run in six furlong races in Mid-August.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The effect on the pace scenario in the Classic is a valid point and, in my opinion, the only effect the addtition of the BC Dirt Mile will have on the outcome of the BC Classic. However, if a horse can't win the BC Classic in a 10-12 horse field because there isn't enough pace then the horse just plain isn't good enough and shouldn't be winning the BC Classic anyways.

Bernardini probably (maybe almost certainly) beats Invasor this year if all of the cheap speed that was in that race (Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron etc.) opted for the dirt mile instead. With a slower pace, he wouldn't have been gunned as early as he was by Castallano. Giacomo, would of also not run as well.

A horse like Concern, would have never won the Classic without the intense pace setup he got.

I also happen to think fast-paced championship races are much more exciting to watch than the slower-paced tactical versions we are now more likely to see.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Absolutely he would have. He had won the 6.5 furlong Vosburgh by 6 1/2 lengths, in last-to-first fashion, in the supersonic final time of 1:14 3/5ths. In the words of Tom Durkin after the wire that day: "Just 1/5th off the track record in the 66th Vosburgh Stakes.....Ghostzapper...a sprinting force!" Instead of passing the BC Sprint...Frankel would have run him in the BC Dirt Mile after the Vosburgh. Which, he would have won.
Ghostzapper was a half sibling to confirmed sprinter City Zip...and Frankel waited until August of his 4-year-old season to stretch him out. Here are some quotes.

Before his 4yo debut in the 7 furlong Tom Fool "Trainer Bobby Frankel opted to skip the Breeders' Cup Sprint because he believed Ghostzapper's closing style would work against him at Santa Anita."

After his 4yo debut win in the Tom Fool "Frankel, who won the Tom Fool last year with Aldebaran, said Ghostzapper would be pointed to the $200,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga on Aug. 14 as a prep for the Grade 1 Forego on Sept. 4, also at Saratoga. Frankel said he is inclined to try and stretch out Ghostzapper here in the fall.

"With the speed he showed [Sunday], going long you might be able to sit there with him and turn him loose in the stretch," Frankel said. "Everybody wants to pigeonhole him as a sprinter; we don't know. He's an easy horse to rate."

Here is what was published in the DRF on why Frankel pulled out of the SIX FURLONG Vanderbilt Stakes. "Instead, Frankel will now point Ghostzapper to the Grade 3, $200,000 Philip Iselin Handicap at Monmouth Park on Aug. 21.

Frankel wouldn't come out and say it, but part of what went into his decision is his dissatisfaction with the weight assignments for the race. Ghostzapper was assigned 122 pounds, compared with 120 for Speightstown."

How can you be so sure that Ghostzapper would have run in the Classic, as a 4-year-old, if they had a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. While the purse of the Classic is much greater---a Breeders Cup win, at the important commercial stallion distance of a mile on dirt, isn't exacly something to scoff at. Most Breeders Cup Classic meant horses, aren't looking to run in six furlong races in Mid-August.




Bernardini probably (maybe almost certainly) beats Invasor this year if all of the cheap speed that was in that race (Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron etc.) opted for the dirt mile instead. With a slower pace, he wouldn't have been gunned as early as he was by Castallano. Giacomo, would of also not run as well.

A horse like Concern, would have never won the Classic without the intense pace setup he got.

I also happen to think fast-paced championship races are much more exciting to watch than the slower-paced tactical versions we are now more likely to see.

I just don't see that many owners not trying their horse in the Classic if they think he has a shot and way too many of them think there horse is better than it is. I actually think it is more likely that too many Milers run in the Classic on their connections delusional dreams that they can win the Classic. I agree that had GZ not gone in the Iselin that the Mile would have been likely. Once he went in that race he was going to the Classic though. So I guess the only question is whether a BC Dirt Mile would have changed their decision from the Iselin to the Vanderbilt.

I think Invasor wins the race either way. He could have sat a lot closer if there was less pace, he's been the type of horse that can alter his style to fit the pace scenario. I don't think he needed the pace to beat Bernardini. I also think that if there is a perceived lack of pace in the Classic then we will absolutely see some frontrunners considering the Mile decide to go to the Classic and see if they can wire the field since the Mile pace scenario will likely be unfavorable to them.

[Linny]

Would you rather run against Sun King and Lawyer Ron for $1m or Invasor and Premium Tap for $3m. If you have Bernardini, you go for the Classic, if you have a lesser G1 winner or a non G1 winner or have any doubts about your horse being a G1 quality 10f horse, you skip to the Dirt Mile.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Linny

Would you rather run against Sun King and Lawyer Ron for $1m or Invasor and Premium Tap for $3m. If you have Bernardini, you go for the Classic, if you have a lesser G1 winner or a non G1 winner or have any doubts about your horse being a G1 quality 10f horse, you skip to the Dirt Mile.

And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

lawyer ron is a multiple grade winner, and graded placed. he belonged.

volponi and arcangues probably didn't belong either...

[Linny]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

The problem is that if those horses don't belong in the Classic then they don't belong in the Dirt Mile either because they are supposed to BOTH be of the same caliber. Also, by giving those kind of horses an "out" you create dull Classics. I'm looking at the chart from '06. St Liam Flower Alley and Perfect Drift were 1-2-3. Take out the "chaff" from that running and you are lfet with those three, Borrego, maybe Sun King (who might have opted for the Dirt Mile if it existed) maybe Oratorio and Suave but who else? Super Frolic, Choctaw Nation, Starcraft, Sir Shackelton, Jack Sullivan? Were any of them really worthy?
Look at "07. After the top 3 finishers and Lava Man, were any of them truly legit G1, 10f horses? Most of the BC races (at least in retrospect) are "filler horses" who's connections thought it worth it to take a shot. They fill such races as the BC, the Derby etc because of the money and prestige. If they had a million dollar option where the level of competition was clearly easier AND they still get full Breeders' Cup credentials (horse and human) why not opt for it. It just another incentive (IMO) to not run against the very best.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think what some people are missing is that there aren't enough quality horses racing to fill the new races. It will simply cause both a dilution and lessening of quality.

Isn't it enough that the BC has cannabalized Grade 1 racing around the country......did they really also need to savage themselves?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think what some people are missing is that there aren't enough quality horses racing to fill the new races. It will simply cause both a dilution and lessening of quality.

Isn't it enough that the BC has cannabalized Grade 1 racing around the country......did they really also need to savage themselves?

I listed these before but do you really think a race comprised of the horses on this list would have been that terrible of a G1? And I don't think any of the other races would have been overly compromised by the loss of the horses listed below.

Discreet Cat
Silver Train
Badge of Silver
Sun King
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sharp Humor
Siren Lure
Wanderin Boy
Super Frolic
Mass Media
Commentator
Lewis Michael
Sir Greeley
War Front
It's No Joke
Magna Graduate
Papi Chullo
Straight Line
Awesome Twist

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Linny

Look at "07. After the top 3 finishers and Lava Man, were any of them truly legit G1, 10f horses?

I would contend that David Junior was a legitimate 10f horse (and George Washington ran a big race), the dirt experiment just went awry...but that will continue to happen with Euro horses because some of them will handle it wonderfully (Giant's Causeway, Sahkee...), and others like David Junior won't handle it.

I don't think it means they don't belong per se.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I would contend that David Junior was a legitimate 10f horse (and George Washington ran a big race), the dirt experiment just went awry...but that will continue to happen with Euro horses because some of them will handle it wonderfully (Giant's Causeway, Sahkee...), and others like David Junior won't handle it.

I don't think it means they don't belong per se.

I do think at a certain number of the Euros will still opt for the Classic. David Junior loves 10f but not dirt. Geo Washington did run well considering that he'd have been odds on in the Mile and the move to the Classic was a sporting attempt to duplicate the sensation of Giant's Causeway's game effort in defeat. There are a number of Euro's who prefer 10f to 12f and they may opt for the Classic over the turf.
Most of the weakening will be by US based owners.