1/13: Gulfstream Park

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't want to talk you off big price horses but I have a history with this horse because I felt they didn't try in his debut. I will give you that she was a bit wide at Aqueduct last time, and this field aint much, but the distance and ability are MAJOR questions.

If you would like to indulge me, watch the replay of Pretty Face Fay's debut....it's a doozy.

Hilarious BTW. Surprised Elvis didn't sit down

My main reasons for 'touting' SW is that she hasn't gotten a good trip at all, and I think Castro might make the difference here. If you toss her last at Aqueduct becuase of an extreme rail bias, you have a horse that needs a trip to win, and in the 6 hole, where she might get a 2w2w trip, and possibly at 15/1 or higher, I think she is a little playable, given the minimal talent she has shown. I agree regarding the distance though, it is a major question mark

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Hilarious BTW. Surprised Elvis didn't sit down

My main reasons for 'touting' SW is that she hasn't gotten a good trip at all, and I think Castro might make the difference here. If you toss her last at Aqueduct becuase of an extreme rail bias, you have a horse that needs a trip to win, and in the 6 hole, where she might get a 2w2w trip, and possibly at 15/1 or higher, I think she is a little playable, given the minimal talent she has shown. I agree regarding the distance though, it is a major question mark

I don't think there was a rail bias on the turf at Aqueduct but ground loss on that turf course can be taxing and the horse was attacking. However, it was most likely attacking because at best it is a sprinter.

In general, the horses that run in the turf sprint maiden races in NY are both not terrific and have trouble stretching. Obviously this isn't a RULE, and I don't believe in rules, but those sprint maiden races have proven very weak over time.

[golfer]

It's another Saturday at Gulfstream. Here it goes....

1st: evenly matched field, a couple lay-off horses, #8 Without a doubt seems the most likely winner, with #3 Rumspringa... longsthot possibility, #4 Samba Jones

2nd: #4 Mattingly will be favorite, should be the best, use 9, 10, 11 & 12 underneath.

3rd: 3 favorites (3,7 &8) are the 3 fastest.. #5 Diamond Spirit is interesting, just ran last week on turf.

4th: #10 Miss Buddhafull is fastest coming in, 6-1 ml.. #7 Film at eleven, may be interesting longshot stretching out & switching to turf

5th: #9 Arcata ran big in slop in last at Del..could go backwards, use if price, #6 Mister White Sox, and #3 Our Sacred Honor both solid.

6th: A bunch of dangerous, expensive first time starters in here, #9 Vicarian ran big on poly 2 back, then reacted.

7th: another very tough race, #2 On a cloud, very fast last year in 2 races in Europe, adds Lasix, #7 Prop me up is fast on both dirt and turf, #5 Ebony Rose ran big in last... longshot #9 Miss Belga bound

8th:#7 Chelokee is fastest coming in, repeat of either of the last 2 can win this, #'s 1, 4 and 6 all dangerous.

9th: favorite #10 Naissance Royale is the fastest coming in, but outside post & cross country ship may make her vulnerable, loved #2 Royal Wave's pattern leading up to last start, when she hit the gate when it opened losing all chance, #9 Factual contender, 2nd start for Tagg, could improve.

10th: another maiden race littered with firsters, #4 Backlash broke poorly and checked in his debut, can win here (hopefully).

That's the story, good luck to all.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think there was a rail bias on the turf at Aqueduct but ground loss on that turf course can be taxing and the horse was attacking. However, it was most likely attacking because at best it is a sprinter.

In general, the horses that run in the turf sprint maiden races in NY are both not terrific and have trouble stretching. Obviously this isn't a RULE, and I don't believe in rules, but those sprint maiden races have proven very weak over time.

I was talking about his last dirt race where he was a bizillion wide but tried to get to the lead 4w and the rail just didn't stop, I am tossing that race.

Maybe she will love the warm weather?

Dell, I am going to root for MG today

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Scav

I was talking about his last dirt race where he was a bizillion wide but tried to get to the lead 4w and the rail just didn't stop, I am tossing that race.

Maybe she will love the warm weather?

Dell, I am going to root for MG today

Scav, What about Gold Hornet. I know you gave him out as a single in a PK3 two starts back at the Throne which paid decent.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Scav, What about Gold Hornet. I know you gave him out as a single in a PK3 two starts back at the Throne which paid decent.

yeah, they always put their horses in these spots and never run.

When the connections (Leggio is Roussell's LA trainer) run a horse anywhere, the horse is ready to run and they feel they have a shot to win. I have seen them scratch the same horse like 5 times before they finally run, and then they win, the sometimes takes shots that are beneficial (I'll never forget when they ran In Secure in the Prioress at Belmont, 11/1 and Santos tries to hit a hole and gets checked into the infield, no check and she wins easily, I unloaded in that race). I don't know what to think about this move quite honestly. Roussel might just want to see his name in the program. If he runs, he is usable on the backside

This is one of those FG turf races where anything can happen, there look to be alot of the same kind

If you remember Gus, Stidham's horse in this race always took crazy action off 10/1 ML's in this race. if I remember correctly, that horse was like 10/1 ML in those three races where he went off at 2/1 or lower. He might be a little playable with Marquez on him.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Scav

yeah, they always put their horses in these spots and never run.

When the connections (Leggio is Roussell's LA trainer) run a horse anywhere, the horse is ready to run and they feel they have a shot to win. I have seen them scratch the same horse like 5 times before they finally run, and then they win, the sometimes takes shots that are beneficial (I'll never forget when they ran In Secure in the Prioress at Belmont, 11/1 and Santos tries to hit a hole and gets checked into the infield, no check and she wins easily, I unloaded in that race). I don't know what to think about this move quite honestly. Roussel might just want to see his name in the program. If he runs, he is usable on the backside

This is one of those FG turf races where anything can happen, there look to be alot of the same kind

If you remember Gus, Stidham's horse in this race always took crazy action off 10/1 ML's in this race. if I remember correctly, that horse was like 10/1 ML in those three races where he went off at 2/1 or lower. He might be a little playable with Marquez on him.

Yep, I agree with your assessment. Arbuckle Bandit is a complete different horse on the turf.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Yep, I agree with your assessment. Arbuckle Bandit is a complete different horse on the turf.

and it makes no sense Bogey, I tried beating him every time at Arlington because the action was just unprecendented, still has me confused.....