Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Wednesday.

Race 3. #6 Russi 6/1. Here’s a horse from the Bond barn that should have a real shot in this competitive turf sprint. Russi was wide throughout in his first off the layoff and I thought he was more impressive than Vacation Dance that day as Russi had no cover the entire race but still finished willingly. That’s the type of effort I love to see off the layoff. I’d like to see Javy save some ground this time around, but even if he gets stuck wide, he should be ready to move forward.

Race 8. #5 Sushi 20/1. Carmouche has been riding great and Delgado usually sends live horses up to Saratoga. I thought her turf race was sneaky good as she didn’t have a great start, was close to the pace, got uncomfortable and steadied causing her to drop back and then still was game to run on in the stretch. They tried to get her back on turf last out but it rained off and she won. It would have been easy to keep her on dirt after that but they want to put her back on the grass. Pedigree suggests she will be just fine going added ground. This is a step up but her form on turf is much better imo than her figures suggest.

Thursday.

Race 5. #3 Hedge 9/2. Early in this meet, the Kentucky horses seemed to dominate the horses coming from other circuits. I'm not sure if that trend has held up but I want to take a shot here with Hedge who exits a series of allowance races in Kentucky against much better horses than he'll face here. I'm not sold on Tactical Trackstar's race last out. Bye Bye Miles may be tough but I wasn't overly impressed with the field he faced last race. Ben Colebrook doesn't send horses to Saratoga often and he'll ship this one in from Keeneland (positive ROI on shippers over the last 5 years.) Colebrook has only sent 3 horses to the NY circuit in the last 5 years, winning 1 of those races (the dominant win by Raise Cain in the Gotham a few years ago.)

Race 7. #6 One More Freud 6/1. One More Freud goes 1st off the claim for Mike Maker (19% win rate) after getting claimed for $35,000 following his impressive 14-length debut victory. The waters obviously get deeper here as that didn't seem like much of a field that he beat last out. Still, he holds a major advantage with the highest last out BSF and TF figure. He draws Ricardo Santana, who has continued to ride well during the Saratoga meet. Importantly, his pedigree has plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can run on turf. During his impressive debut, he showed off a long stride and and drew off easily as soon as he hit the top of the stretch. Despite all this, he's likely to fly under the radar as Dr. Agne will get to try turf for the first time and is out of the multiple G1 winning mare Lady Eli. You've also got a Pletcher horse, Klaravich/Chad/Prat horse, and Clement horse as well as a Godolphin homebred and John Oxley colt trained by Mark Casse. It wouldn't shock me one bit for this horse to be much higher than 6/1.

[moses]

Friday

Race 3. #2 Program Trading 8/5. I know the price here is short but I just don't see any way that Program Trading loses this one. I suppose you could make the case that Northern Invader wires the field but he should get some pace pressure from Donegal Momentum and possibly Major Dude (who has generally been more involved in the pace under Johnny V). I wanted to make a case for General Jim at 10/1 to sit the perfect trip behind the speed horses and I'd still love to see that for Shug and Carmouche but I can't ignore that Program Trading has a class edge and pace advantage and owns the best figures in the race. I'm skeptical he'll be 8/5 but note Donegal Momentum does draw Irad aboard which should intrigue bettors enough to keep Program Trading above even money.


Race 11. #7 Les Reys 8/1. A lot of people liked this horse last out so I'm unsure if she'll be 8/1 or not. Morning line favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing is sure to draw a lot of money but I don't want to bet her at a short price. Yes, she's got a Grade 1 win at the distance on her resume but that race was on a yielding turf course and I don't want to put too much weight into it. There are simply too many interesting faces in this race for me to bet Dynamic Pricing at 8/5. I'm intrigued by a few horses in this race, including the #9 Ribaltagaia 8/1, #4 A Lilac Rolla 8/1, and #6 Proctor Street 7/2 and I think you simply can't single Dynamic Pricing in multis in this race (and in fact, I will totally toss her from my multis and use the 4, 7, and 9 in hopes of landing a big price here). I want to give Les Reys a shot. She ran OK in her first race off the layoff, finishing a length behind Deep Satin (2nd in G2 Ballston Spa next out) and a 1/2 length behind Heredia (1st in G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap next out). I'd expect her to move forward in her 2nd race off the layoff. She's already got a win over Dynamic Pricing last year and I think her ability to comfortably split horses gives her an advantage, which should allow Rosario to work out a good trip for her.

[theguarantee]

8/27:

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Tiz in Sight 5/1
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Dark Devil 15/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

8/27:

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Tiz in Sight 5/1
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Dark Devil 15/1

I remember you picking Ruse a few years ago in this. He just won at 24/1 (via DQ).

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I remember you picking Ruse a few years ago in this. He just won at 24/1 (via DQ).

Yeah, I've been a fan in the past, can't say I had him yesterday...it's funny the beginning of this Saratoga meet was about as locked in as I've ever felt as a handicapper...the last couple weeks about as opposite of being locked in as possible lol...tough game. That said, we have some pretty decent cards to close the meet, hopefully we can both close out strong.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Yeah, I've been a fan in the past, can't say I had him yesterday...it's funny the beginning of this Saratoga meet was about as locked in as I've ever felt as a handicapper...the last couple weeks about as opposite of being locked in as possible lol...tough game. That said, we have some pretty decent cards to close the meet, hopefully we can both close out strong.

I'm with you 100% there. It seemed at one point that I was seeing things incredibly well. Lately, not so much. Hopefully we can both hit a few solid winners to end the meet.

[moses]

You can’t make it up. Why’d I switch?

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday

Race 3. #2 Program Trading 8/5. I know the price here is short but I just don't see any way that Program Trading loses this one. I suppose you could make the case that Northern Invader wires the field but he should get some pace pressure from Donegal Momentum and possibly Major Dude (who has generally been more involved in the pace under Johnny V). I wanted to make a case for General Jim at 10/1 to sit the perfect trip behind the speed horses and I'd still love to see that for Shug and Carmouche but I can't ignore that Program Trading has a class edge and pace advantage and owns the best figures in the race. I'm skeptical he'll be 8/5 but note Donegal Momentum does draw Irad aboard which should intrigue bettors enough to keep Program Trading above even money.


Race 11. #7 Les Reys 8/1. A lot of people liked this horse last out so I'm unsure if she'll be 8/1 or not. Morning line favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing is sure to draw a lot of money but I don't want to bet her at a short price. Yes, she's got a Grade 1 win at the distance on her resume but that race was on a yielding turf course and I don't want to put too much weight into it. There are simply too many interesting faces in this race for me to bet Dynamic Pricing at 8/5. I'm intrigued by a few horses in this race, including the #9 Ribaltagaia 8/1, #4 A Lilac Rolla 8/1, and #6 Proctor Street 7/2 and I think you simply can't single Dynamic Pricing in multis in this race (and in fact, I will totally toss her from my multis and use the 4, 7, and 9 in hopes of landing a big price here). I want to give Les Reys a shot. She ran OK in her first race off the layoff, finishing a length behind Deep Satin (2nd in G2 Ballston Spa next out) and a 1/2 length behind Heredia (1st in G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap next out). I'd expect her to move forward in her 2nd race off the layoff. She's already got a win over Dynamic Pricing last year and I think her ability to comfortably split horses gives her an advantage, which should allow Rosario to work out a good trip for her.

The kiss of death here saying I didn’t see how Program Trading could lose. Paid $2.10 to place. I missed Race 11 but doesn’t look like Les Reys was anywhere close.

$320.00 wagered
$352.50 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 6 #7 Souper Caliber 8/1 - Thought this horse ran incredibly well despite not liking the turf at all imo. Bred for the dirt and I know Casse has no problem starting one on a surface he doesn’t necessarily prefer. That should’ve been a perfect tightener to get him ready to fire a big shot cutting back slightly on the preferred surface today imo

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 11 #5 Percy’s Bar 6/1 - like the way this one is developing. Tommy Jo looks very formidable but think Percy will run a big one

[moses]

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 14 #7 Blame It On KJ 10/1 - Feel obligated to take another shot today after I liked in the off the turf race a couple weeks back. That was some trip in there and I think the stretchout definitely helped, now gets back to turf and should be tighter, has to still move quite a bit forward to be competitive here I know.

Best Value: Race 10 #10 Step Forward 12/1 - I think you can draw a line through the G2 attempt down the hill that completed his 5 year old season...with the lengthy layoff the June effort felt like a prep and he's moved forward exactly as you'd have hoped since that, narrowly missing in a couple spots...when you do that I think he's the most consistent runner in the field...Big Invasion and Dancing Buck are both coming off layoffs, if either of them run their A race he probably isn't good enough but I don't totally buy that last effort from Twenty Six Black...I would argue he's about as likely as anyone in here and figures to be one of the better prices, although obviously with the scratches 12/1 is no longer going to happen.

Good Luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

Terrible today.

$336.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #2 Grunge 6/1. I like the workouts on this horse and think some of the others in here will be overbet. I know everyone hates Carmouche right now but think he steals this one.

Race 10. #10 Versus 12/1. The figures fit for this longshot and should get pace to run into. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, major rider upgrade.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday.

Race 3. #6 Russi 6/1. Here’s a horse from the Bond barn that should have a real shot in this competitive turf sprint. Russi was wide throughout in his first off the layoff and I thought he was more impressive than Vacation Dance that day as Russi had no cover the entire race but still finished willingly. That’s the type of effort I love to see off the layoff. I’d like to see Javy save some ground this time around, but even if he gets stuck wide, he should be ready to move forward.

Race 8. #5 Sushi 20/1. Carmouche has been riding great and Delgado usually sends live horses up to Saratoga. I thought her turf race was sneaky good as she didn’t have a great start, was close to the pace, got uncomfortable and steadied causing her to drop back and then still was game to run on in the stretch. They tried to get her back on turf last out but it rained off and she won. It would have been easy to keep her on dirt after that but they want to put her back on the grass. Pedigree suggests she will be just fine going added ground. This is a step up but her form on turf is much better imo than her figures suggest.

Thursday.

Race 5. #3 Hedge 9/2. Early in this meet, the Kentucky horses seemed to dominate the horses coming from other circuits. I'm not sure if that trend has held up but I want to take a shot here with Hedge who exits a series of allowance races in Kentucky against much better horses than he'll face here. I'm not sold on Tactical Trackstar's race last out. Bye Bye Miles may be tough but I wasn't overly impressed with the field he faced last race. Ben Colebrook doesn't send horses to Saratoga often and he'll ship this one in from Keeneland (positive ROI on shippers over the last 5 years.) Colebrook has only sent 3 horses to the NY circuit in the last 5 years, winning 1 of those races (the dominant win by Raise Cain in the Gotham a few years ago.)

Race 7. #6 One More Freud 6/1. One More Freud goes 1st off the claim for Mike Maker (19% win rate) after getting claimed for $35,000 following his impressive 14-length debut victory. The waters obviously get deeper here as that didn't seem like much of a field that he beat last out. Still, he holds a major advantage with the highest last out BSF and TF figure. He draws Ricardo Santana, who has continued to ride well during the Saratoga meet. Importantly, his pedigree has plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can run on turf. During his impressive debut, he showed off a long stride and and drew off easily as soon as he hit the top of the stretch. Despite all this, he's likely to fly under the radar as Dr. Agne will get to try turf for the first time and is out of the multiple G1 winning mare Lady Eli. You've also got a Pletcher horse, Klaravich/Chad/Prat horse, and Clement horse as well as a Godolphin homebred and John Oxley colt trained by Mark Casse. It wouldn't shock me one bit for this horse to be much higher than 6/1.

One More Freud is scratched.

Sticking with #3 Hedge in Race 5 for one selection.

For the next selection, I'm going to go with:

Race 11. #4 Extraordinary One 12/1. As noted two weeks ago, this horse is a turf sprinter and I was happy to bet him at a big price two weeks ago against much better. Now, he drops in for a tag. Edmund Davis has only 12 wins over the last 5 years. 2 of those wins were going MSW to MCL.

Edit, previously was going with:

Race 1. #5 Oh 5/1. Manny Franco has possibly started to get out of his slump, ending with two wins yesterday. And note, while Franco has been struggling and disappointing this meet, he's finished in the money 41% still, which isn't great but also could be a lot worse. Mike Maker has sent seven 2YO first time starters to Saratoga this meet. While only 1 has won, 5 of them finished in the money. Both of the two sent out for this owner ended up finishing in the money. None of the experienced horses here blow me away so why not take a shot on a first time starter with some decent looking works and a good debut trainer?