Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Just bet Parx for the first time in a long time and instantly remembered why I hate that track.

[moses]

Note for today — sticking with the original picks even with Race 8 coming off the turf. I love these horses with Sky Mesa in the bloodline because they often seem to be able to run on any surface. Put them on the moon, they’ll handle the terrain. Sky’s Not Falling’s dam won 3 times on dirt and he broke his maiden on dirt. The 1A Loco Abarrio and the 5 Castle Island will likely get bet heavily here along with the other MTOs so I still see Sky’s Not Falling offering some value even with the shorter field.

As a side note, Saratoga really should start earlier in the day and not schedule 35 minutes between races.

[theguarantee]

Have to update numbers later today or tomorrow morning. Another card I really struggle to even find two picks today...that's been the majority of the last couple weeks...let's hope the weather holds though because I think the next few days have several opportunities.

8/20
Best Bet: Race 7 #5 Notah 4/1 - Not sure what kind of price he'll be in here after scratches with Irad up, but he's the only horse I really have any confidence in today...not that I'm in love with him...I just think he's the fastest horse in here and should handle these if he just maintains off his last and sees out the mile...he also might improve second off which would make him a very likely winner.

Best Value: Race 8 #14 Big Gain 10/1 - Looking for a form reversal but he's got some back races that are certainly fast enough to compete in here and I think may appreciate the track conditions today. I do think Loco Abarrio is much the horse to beat and I think Barnstorming is a little interesting in here, almost picked him but went with Big Gain. Might play around with those three in this race depending on odds.

[moses]

Frustrating day as Patricia Ann finished last and Sky’s Not Falling had a slow start and then flattened out just when it looked like he might make a move to get up for maybe second, ultimately finishing 4th.

I also continued my habit of hitting 4 of 5 on the Pick 5. Really liked that 6 horse that won the finale but did not have Celtic Dawn in the 6th. Really messed my ticket up by not singling the 1A race 8 but I thought that 8 could compete.

Ah well. Onward.

$264.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

[theguarantee]

Back in the negative on the year, time to turn it around, feels like I slump at Saratoga around the same time every year - not just on these two a day picks but my handicapping/play in general. Won't hit all the picks but a few notes since last update:

R10 8/14 Blame It On KJ was arguably best with a wild trip but ultimately settled for second paying $6.80 to place.
R9 8/15 Ellen Jay had about as bad of a trip as I’ve watched in a while, really worth a re-watch if anyone missed it. Was she beating Future is Now? Hard to say...but he surely would’ve been second and I think at least would’ve made it a race...settled for third ultimately.
R10 8/15 Twohonestmischief did all the dirty work and was second best but got edged for the place in the final jump – would’ve been a nice payout considering for show he was just shy of nine bucks.
This past weekend picks all ran from fair to very poor.
Backed that up with a couple of lasts yesterday.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $255.70

[theguarantee]

8/21:
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Fast Market 6/1

Best Value:Race 10 #10 Apertif 6/1

[moses]

$272.00 wagered
$296.60 returned

Mo Kreesa did not get the aggressive up front ride that I wanted but it's also possible he just wasn't good enough. Vehemente got the exact ride I hoped for and was able to wire the field, paying $11.40 to win and $4.10 to place

I don't love the Friday card but there are a few horses I think are worth taking shots on at midrange prices.

Race 8. #6 Mama's Gold 6/1. I know that the pace might get fast here but that hasn't stopped him before. He was never going to win the Whitney but I respect the connections for taking a chance. He ends up in a dicey allowance race here but he really is the speed of the speed here so I'm hoping he can get out front and never look back.

Race 10. #4 Alexis Zorba 7/2 If he is really going to be 7/2 then sign me up. He should easily handle this field, even if he has a habit of giving up the lead late. I’m not seeing what horse here will be able to run him down.