Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

$256.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Mystic Sea ran OK but was nowhere near good enough to win and got beaten for 2nd by Insperee. Typhoon Fury also ran OK but simply wasn't good enough, also finishing 3rd.

Wednesday 8/20

Race 2. #5 Patricia Ann 5/1 (Martin/Gomez). The #3 R Disaster is the 3-5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. She's finished 1st or 2nd in literally every start of her career, holds the last out beyer advantage putting up a 91 BSF in the Honorable Miss last out, defeating the other logical contender here #4 Striker Has Dial (who arguably didn't like the sloppy track that day.) Striker Has Dial's best races came when she was able to move comfortably through the early stages which seems unlikely to happen here as Carmouche will likely have to contest R Disaster early if he wants to try to win. I like Patricia Ann who I thought ran a really strong race in her first off the layoff last out. She now cuts back a furlong and should be ready for a move forward in her 2nd start off the layoff. She draws the outside post so she should be positioned well outside of the other speeds.

Race 8. #8 Sky's Not Falling 10/1 (Trombetta/J.Ortiz). The last race at Woodbine was just an impossible task as this horse tried graded stakes company for the first time in his career, going off at 63-1. This field has a lot of interesting faces in it but is a much easier field. Trombetta has put 17 starters in the gate at Saratoga this year, winning a whopping 29% of those starts and finishing in the money in 70% of them. He also tends to do well when dropping in class and lures Jose Ortiz aboard for this race (connecting at a 40%/60% clip over the last 5 years at Saratoga).

Thursday, 8/21

Race 3. #2 Vehemente 7/2 (Sharp/Carmouche). This is another race where there will be a likely big favorite in the #3 Kay Cup. Unlike R Disaster (bet against above), I'm not so sure Kay Cup should be such a heavy favorite. Yes, she's got some big speed figures and has Irad aboard but nothing about her suggests to me that she wants to go 9 furlongs and so I've got serious questions if she can carry this speed for that distance. The horse who looks to relish the distance is the next ML choice #4 Lottie Margaret but she really got a perfect trip last out and I think that race was the one where you wanted to bet her. I'm intrigued by the #2 Vehemente, who comes from the scorching hot Joe Sharp barn and who just worked an absolute bullet in her most recent work. I had some questions about her desire to go long but I thought she had a remarkably good race last out. She broke well but conceded the lead early, went very wide into the first turn, was wide throughout, then experienced some fairly significant trouble at the top of the stretch before ending with a pretty game finish. I think she's going to have a much better trip this time and I wouldn't be surprised to see her wire the field.

Race 4. #5 Mo Kreesa 8/1 (Hennig/Velazquez). Mo Kreesa had to be scratched last week after experiencing what was described as a superficial scrape. I wanted to bet him then and I still want to bet him here. He should have a pace advantage and I like that Hennig now takes over and gives him to Johnny V.

[moses]

Just bet Parx for the first time in a long time and instantly remembered why I hate that track.

[moses]

Note for today — sticking with the original picks even with Race 8 coming off the turf. I love these horses with Sky Mesa in the bloodline because they often seem to be able to run on any surface. Put them on the moon, they’ll handle the terrain. Sky’s Not Falling’s dam won 3 times on dirt and he broke his maiden on dirt. The 1A Loco Abarrio and the 5 Castle Island will likely get bet heavily here along with the other MTOs so I still see Sky’s Not Falling offering some value even with the shorter field.

As a side note, Saratoga really should start earlier in the day and not schedule 35 minutes between races.

[theguarantee]

Have to update numbers later today or tomorrow morning. Another card I really struggle to even find two picks today...that's been the majority of the last couple weeks...let's hope the weather holds though because I think the next few days have several opportunities.

8/20
Best Bet: Race 7 #5 Notah 4/1 - Not sure what kind of price he'll be in here after scratches with Irad up, but he's the only horse I really have any confidence in today...not that I'm in love with him...I just think he's the fastest horse in here and should handle these if he just maintains off his last and sees out the mile...he also might improve second off which would make him a very likely winner.

Best Value: Race 8 #14 Big Gain 10/1 - Looking for a form reversal but he's got some back races that are certainly fast enough to compete in here and I think may appreciate the track conditions today. I do think Loco Abarrio is much the horse to beat and I think Barnstorming is a little interesting in here, almost picked him but went with Big Gain. Might play around with those three in this race depending on odds.

[moses]

Frustrating day as Patricia Ann finished last and Sky’s Not Falling had a slow start and then flattened out just when it looked like he might make a move to get up for maybe second, ultimately finishing 4th.

I also continued my habit of hitting 4 of 5 on the Pick 5. Really liked that 6 horse that won the finale but did not have Celtic Dawn in the 6th. Really messed my ticket up by not singling the 1A race 8 but I thought that 8 could compete.

Ah well. Onward.

$264.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

[theguarantee]

Back in the negative on the year, time to turn it around, feels like I slump at Saratoga around the same time every year - not just on these two a day picks but my handicapping/play in general. Won't hit all the picks but a few notes since last update:

R10 8/14 Blame It On KJ was arguably best with a wild trip but ultimately settled for second paying $6.80 to place.
R9 8/15 Ellen Jay had about as bad of a trip as I’ve watched in a while, really worth a re-watch if anyone missed it. Was she beating Future is Now? Hard to say...but he surely would’ve been second and I think at least would’ve made it a race...settled for third ultimately.
R10 8/15 Twohonestmischief did all the dirty work and was second best but got edged for the place in the final jump – would’ve been a nice payout considering for show he was just shy of nine bucks.
This past weekend picks all ran from fair to very poor.
Backed that up with a couple of lasts yesterday.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $255.70

[theguarantee]

8/21:
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Fast Market 6/1

Best Value:Race 10 #10 Apertif 6/1