Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Was away the last week plus and hadn't updated:
Jhirsch was awful.
Any Port was an OK third.
Duboff I thought ran pretty well, just wasn’t quite good enough at around 9/1.
Imminent Risk ran fair racking up another of what feels like a lot of 3rds for my picks of late.
Insubordination was probably one of my worst picks of the meet.
^Oops, forgot I picked Soho Nights too.
Salamis was a much needed winner paying $6.70/$3.50
No Mo Candy another who ran an OK third.
Practical Lov was a pretty disappointing non-threatening fourth.
I thought Rebel Red did all the dirty work, great race riding by Irad and just got nailed by a horse that ran an unbelievably strong race while also receiving a most perfect ride from Prat...that was a heartbreaker for me that cost me a few decent scores...paid $14.20 to place.
Ocala Dream was not rounding back into form and finished last.
I thought Hop Sing turned away No Bien Ni Mal about 5 times but had that sickening gut feel that what ended up happening, would, as NBNM denied Hop Sing who I was also wrong about being overlooked, took tons of money cutting the ML in half and paid a really short $4.40 to place.

Wagered: $216.00
Returned: $246.90

[theguarantee]

Ugly Card Today...

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Hangover Heaven 7/2 - I totally get anyone who wants be be totally against a horse like this...it has a lot of the hallmarks of a bet against, however the more I looked through this field she just seems like the one with the upside and any type of move forward she might be too much for this field...she's worked four times since the debut - typically would want a better price on a horse like this but there wasn't a ton jumping out at me today.

Best Value: Race 6 #2 Cada Dia Mejor 15/1 - Maybe just not much horse but this feels like a field to take a swing in...he was hopefully just running on the wrong surface all winter being out of Big Brown, admittedly there's not a ton of breeding on the dam side, but again these are maiden claimers and I don't know how good he ultimately has to be...I thought he was clearly never going to get the distance in the April turf debut at 1 1/16 and then there was another dirt sprint, his best race to that point...I thought his first shot at a turf sprint was just fine and while he'll have to run better in here he's a bit muddied up and worth a shot today.

[moses]

Just an added comment on Disco Star who everyone is saying she got a perfect trip last out. She did get an inside trip but was far back after a slow start and closed into a pace that very much held together. She might not get pace again today but she should get another inside trip. I’m hoping she is more forwardly placed today.