Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Total whiff today.

The kicker was I put together a $60 late pick 5 ticket this morning (that would have won) but switched a few horses around and dropped Barnstorming out and ended up missing.

That’s ok. My two year old pick didn’t pan out at all (note I like the way Santana has been riding, part of why I almost included Barnstorming). Before the Wind ran 4th but there wasn’t much distance between 2nd and 4th. An experience was just too good here.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $162.50

Friday.

Race 5. #4 Bodegas, 15/1. Took some money on debut, albeit in an easier spot than this. Still, I suspect this one might have some talent and no one else in here looks like anything special. Gets Rosario aboard.

Race 7. #7 Big Everest, 7/2. There is no one in this race that is proven as fast early as this one on the grass. The pace projector says the pace will be hot but I think Big Everest may be able to control it up front and it’ll be too late for the other logicals to track him down. Off the layoff, he faced off against the very talented Donegal Momentum who was able to press the pace. Last out, 8.5 might have been too long for him, and he was game up to roughly a mile before conceding in the final half furlong. Even there, Cugino is a respectable stakes winner and GS placed horse. I don’t see who will provide legitimate pace pressure to him today.

Big Everest proved all the naysayers wrong, wiring the field at a chilly 6/1 and paying $15.40 to win and $7.20 to place. Bodegas stunk.

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $185.10

Saturday. I haven’t looked closely yet. I’ll probably change these but we’ll see.

Race 9. #4 Kairyu 6/1.
Race 11. #4 Mullikin, 7/2.

[moses]

This game is impossible. I had singled Big Everest in the Pick 5 and had Leslie’s Rose, only to have the three top odds horses in race 9 not even on the screen for the 4th leg of the Pick 5.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Big Everest proved all the naysayers wrong, wiring the field at a chilly 6/1 and paying $15.40 to win and $7.20 to place. Bodegas stunk.

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $185.10

Saturday. I haven’t looked closely yet. I’ll probably change these but we’ll see.

Race 9. #4 Kairyu 6/1.
Race 11. #4 Mullikin, 7/2.

I’m going to swap this up a bit. I’ll stick with #4 Mullikin in race 6, just think he’s the best sprinter in there and he might get a wide trip so I’ll back him up with Book Em Danno in multis but don’t see the point in going wider there.

For race 9, I’m going to take an even bigger swing and roll with #2 Zeitlos, 8/1. Zeitlos finished 5th in this race last year. Despite running most of her races on dirt, she’s shown she can handle the turf. She’ll get an inside trip stalking the front runners and will need to get some running room in the stretch, but she’s capable of running them down at a big price. I liked Kairyu in 2nd off the layoff but she switches to Carmouche and while I love Carmouche for sprints, it’s a downgrade from Prat.

Bonus pick for the Haskell (won’t count toward totals): Obviously Journalism will be tough to beat but I think #4 Burnham Square has a shot at 5/1 or maybe even higher. Nearly every horse in this race has some early speed. If Rispoli stays too close to the pace, moves too soon into the fast pace, and/or goes wide to avoid getting boxed in like the Preakness, he’ll open himself up to getting run down by Burnham Square. Bottom line, I don’t trust Rispoli to give Journalism a great ride. And while Journalism is the most accomplished horse in this race and has been the best so far, there’s no way to know if that gap has shrunk until they run the race today. Aside from Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented are two horses who could have improved greatly since we’ve last seen them. It should be an interesting race.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Twirling Queen 12/1
Best Value: Race 12 #1 Commuted 12/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m going to swap this up a bit. I’ll stick with #4 Mullikin in race 6, just think he’s the best sprinter in there and he might get a wide trip so I’ll back him up with Book Em Danno in multis but don’t see the point in going wider there.

For race 9, I’m going to take an even bigger swing and roll with #2 Zeitlos, 8/1. Zeitlos finished 5th in this race last year. Despite running most of her races on dirt, she’s shown she can handle the turf. She’ll get an inside trip stalking the front runners and will need to get some running room in the stretch, but she’s capable of running them down at a big price. I liked Kairyu in 2nd off the layoff but she switches to Carmouche and while I love Carmouche for sprints, it’s a downgrade from Prat.

Bonus pick for the Haskell (won’t count toward totals): Obviously Journalism will be tough to beat but I think #4 Burnham Square has a shot at 5/1 or maybe even higher. Nearly every horse in this race has some early speed. If Rispoli stays too close to the pace, moves too soon into the fast pace, and/or goes wide to avoid getting boxed in like the Preakness, he’ll open himself up to getting run down by Burnham Square. Bottom line, I don’t trust Rispoli to give Journalism a great ride. And while Journalism is the most accomplished horse in this race and has been the best so far, there’s no way to know if that gap has shrunk until they run the race today. Aside from Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented are two horses who could have improved greatly since we’ve last seen them. It should be an interesting race.

Both my picks ran 2nd. $10.80 total added.

$88.00 wagered
$195.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 5. #3 Ba Dee Ya, 10/1
Race 7. #3 Zverev, 10/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Both my picks ran 2nd. $10.80 total added.

$88.00 wagered
$195.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 5. #3 Ba Dee Ya, 10/1
Race 7. #3 Zverev, 10/1

Not going to change my picks but going through the card, I’m not against Scylla in the Honorable Miss but anyone else think this horse Little Prankster could hit the board at 15/1?

I don’t know the story as to why she missed so much time but last out was not a bad race and she’s got a race from her 3YO year that puts her in contention if she can run back to it.

[theguarantee]

Looked at Little Prankster long and hard but ultimately decided against liking her...maybe will throw her in underneath though because she's not without merit.

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Jody's Pride 4/1 - I do respect Scylla in here and maybe shell just love the 6F - she has always had that cutback look...but I don't know I still think she might just need better rides at those elongated sprint distances to see her best. But I have a hard time seeing this pace not being very contentious in here today and I have a feeling Jody's Pride is going to come rolling late. She's really good in my opinion and has basically always run well, the few races she wasn't super competitive were really high class fields/winners and a lot of times at distances I think were too long. Maybe shell need 7 or 8 furlongs after all but I have a funny feeling she might just as well like this distance if there's any legitimate pace to run at.

Best Value: Race 4 #1 Kigali 8/1- Really struggled coming up with anything else on this card...I think Kigali has some upside and can possibly beat Eliminate.

[moses]

Wrong Bauer. Damn.

Zverev ran 2nd and paid $4.90. Finally over the $200 mark.


$96.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

[moses]

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)